Who will the Pistons draft?: Production

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In the latest installment of my quest to predict the Pistons’ four draft picks, we’re going to look at how productive players were in college.

Here are the final-year college stats of every first-round draft pick (who played NCAA basketball) since Joe Dumars became GM:

Name Year Pick PPG RPG APG BPG SPG
Rodney Stuckey 2007 15 24.6 4.7 5.5 0.3 2.4
Arron Afflalo 2007 27 16.9 2.8 1.9 0.2 0.6
Jason Maxiell 2005 26 15.3 7.7 0.8 2.7 1
Tayshaun Prince 2002 23 17.5 6.4 1.7 1.3 1.1
Rodney White 2001 9 18.7 6.5 1.5 0.7 1.2
Mateen Cleaves 2000 14 12.1 1.8 6.9 0.2 1.4

With one exception, they all have something in common. They were very productive college players.

The outlier is Cleaves. Sure, his leadership helped Michigan State to the national title. But he just wasn’t that productive of an individual player in college – at least for as high as he was picked.

I’m only going to apply this to first-round picks because if second-round picks had to be very productive in college, they’d all be off my list.

This won’t affect the board much. Not many potential first-rounders don’t produce in college. In addition to the much-publicized shortcomings of Ohio State center B.J. Mullens (who didn’t make the initial wingspan cut), two more players just weren’t that good last year.

Name School Pos. PPG RPG APG BPG SPG
Austin Daye Gonzaga SF 12.7 6.8 1.1 1.9 0.7
Jrue Holiday UCLA PG 8.46 3.8 3.7 0.5 1.6

So, Daye and Holiday are off my board. Here’s the updated list:

Point guard

Name School Height Wingspan Projected
Jrue Holiday UCLA 6’ 3.25” 6’ 7” 13
Jeff Teague Wake Forest 6’ 0.25” 6’ 7.5” 20
Toney Douglass Florida State 6’ 1” 6’ 6” 36
Rodrigue Beaubois France 6’ 1.25” 6’ 9.75” 39
Greivis Vasquez Maryland 6’ 4.75” 6’ 7.25” 56

Shooting guard

Name School Height Wingspan Projected
Gerald Henderson Duke 6’ 4” 6’ 10.25” 12
Terrence Williams Louisville 6’ 5” 6’ 9” 16
Jermaine Taylor Central Florida 6’ 3.5” 6’ 8.75” 32
Jerel McNeal Marquette 6’ 1.5” 6’ 7.25” 46
Dionte Christmas Temple 6’ 4.25” 6’ 9” 59

Small forward

Name School Height Wingspan Projected
Austin Daye Gonzaga 6’ 9.75” 7’ 2.75” 15
James Johnson Wake Forest 6’ 7” 7’ 0.75” 18
Sam Young Pittsburgh 6’ 5.25” 6’ 10.75” 25
Danny Green North Carolina 6’ 5.25” 6’ 10” 35
Damion James Texas 6’ 6.25” 7’ 0.25” 42
Joe Ingles Australia 6’ 7.75” 6’ 10.25” 52
Tyler Smith Tennessee 6’ 5.25” 6’ 9.75” No

Power forward

Name School Height Wingspan Projected
Dejuan Blair Pittsburgh 6’ 5.25” 7’ 2” 11
Earl Clark Louisville 6’ 8.5” 7’ 2.5” 14
Gani Lawal Georgia Tech 6’ 7.75” 7’ 0” 23
DaJuan Summers Georgetown 6’ 7.25” 7’ 0.75” 31
Derrick Brown Xavier 6’ 7.5” 7’ 2.5” 41
Josh Heytvelt Gonzaga 6’ 10” 7’ 1.25” 50
Taj Gibson USC 6’ 8.5” 7’ 4” 53
Jeff Adrien Connecticut 6’ 5.25” 7’ 2” No

Next up, I’ll have some second-round-only cuts.

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