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Who will the Pistons draft?: Availability (first round)

By Dan Feldman

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A few players left on the board probably won’t be available when the Pistons draft at 15. Here’s a look at where the remaining first-round targets are expected to go:

Name.NetDXMyYSSSFKFoxMLISSNAvg.Avail.
James Johnson1422162119161423221818.580%
Sam Young27232326212227 212924.3100%
DeJuan Blair1616211111181613161315.160%
Earl Clark915141422151215151414.550%

Key:

With those projections in mind, here is my lottery prediction:

1. Clippers: Blake Griffin

2. Grizzlies: Hasheem Thabeet

3. Thunder: James Harden

4. Kings: Ricky Rubio

5. Timberwolves: Tyreke Evans

6. Timberwolves: Stephen Curry

7. Warriors: Jordan Hill

8. Knicks: Jrue Holiday

9. Raptors: Brandon Jennings

10. Bucks: Johnny Flynn

11. Nets: DeMar DeRozan

12. Bobcats: Terrence Williams

13. Pacers: Dejuan Blair

14. Suns: Earl Clark B.J. Mullens

My mock has Gerald Henderson falling out of the lottery, even though just one of the 10 mocks I sampled does. But since most have him going 12, I don’t think he’d be one of the elite guards Dumars said he would take if one fell to 15.

This projection cuts two players off the board: Dejuan Blair and Earl Clark. And I don’t think Sam Young is rated high enough to be considered at 15.

So, that leaves just one first-round player left.

Projected Pistons’ pick at 15: James Johnson, Wake Forest Earl Clark, Louisville

Update: With Phoenix’s trade of Shaq to Cleveland, I think the Suns will take B.J. Mullens. That leaves Earl Clark available, and he’s my guess as the pick.

Here’s more on Clark:

Draft Express profile

NBADraft.net profile

Johnson is one of the more NBA-ready prospects. He left Wake Forest as a sophomore, but he’s already 22.

He can score in a variety of ways, but sometimes he disappears. He has the tools to be a good defender, but he doesn’t always take advantage of them.

He’s an all-around player and improved across the board from his freshman season.

For more reading:

A quick note: I debated whether the Suns would take Henderson or Clark. If Clark falls to 15, I’d expect him to be the pick (at least over Johnson). So, although Johnson is my official prediction, that’s based on Clark not being available – which is far from a certainty.

Here’s the board. I’ll narrow down second-round picks later in the day.

Point guard

NameSchoolHeightWingspanProjected
Jrue HolidayUCLA6’ 3.25”6’ 7”13
Jeff TeagueWake Forest6’ 0.25”6’ 7.5”20
Toney DouglassFlorida State6’ 1”6’ 6”36
Rodrigue BeauboisFrance6’ 1.25”6’ 9.75”39
Greivis VasquezMaryland6’ 4.75”6’ 7.25”56

Shooting guard

NameSchoolHeightWingspanProjected
Gerald HendersonDuke6’ 4”6’ 10.25”12
Terrence WilliamsLouisville6’ 5”6’ 9”16
Jermaine TaylorCentral Florida6’ 3.5”6’ 8.75”32
Jerel McNealMarquette6’ 1.5”6’ 7.25”46
Dionte ChristmasTemple6’ 4.25”6’ 9”59

Small forward

NameSchoolHeightWingspanProjected
Austin DayeGonzaga6’ 9.75”7’ 2.75”15
James JohnsonWake Forest6’ 7”7’ 0.75”18
Sam YoungPittsburgh6’ 5.25”6’ 10.75”25
Danny GreenNorth Carolina6’ 5.25”6’ 10”35
Damion JamesTexas6’ 6.25”7’ 0.25”42
Joe InglesAustralia6’ 7.75”6’ 10.25”52
Tyler SmithTennessee6’ 5.25”6’ 9.75”No

Power forward

NameSchoolHeightWingspanProjected
Dejuan BlairPittsburgh6’ 5.25”7’ 2”11
Earl ClarkLouisville6’ 8.5”7’ 2.5”14
Gani LawalGeorgia Tech6’ 7.75”7’ 0”23
DaJuan SummersGeorgetown6’ 7.25”7’ 0.75”31
Derrick BrownXavier6’ 7.5”7’ 2.5”41
Josh HeytveltGonzaga6’ 10”7’ 1.25”50
Taj GibsonUSC6’ 8.5”7’ 4”53
Jeff AdrienConnecticut6’ 5.25”7’ 2”No
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