Pistons lottery odds: April 11, 2012

  • The Pistons are likely to pick No. 8 or No. 9 in the upcoming draft.
  • They’re more likely to pick No. 10 than they are to pick in the top two.
  • They could draft anywhere in the lottery.

Those are just some of the findings of the draft odds I created for Basketball Prospectus. These odds are, in my opinion, the most accurate available because they account for how likely each lottery seed is to receive each pick and how likely each team is to receive each lottery seed (using Kevin Pelton’s simulation for the rest of the season run 1,000 times).

Here are the Pistons’ odds:

Sheet 2
  • 1st: 3.0 percent
  • 2nd: 3.5 percent
  • 3rd: 4.1 percent
  • 4th: >0 percent
  • 5th: 0.7 percent
  • 6th: 3.4 percent
  • 7th: 12.2 percent
  • 8th: 32.1 percent
  • 9th: 31.6 percent
  • 10th: 8.2 percent
  • 11th: 1.3 percent
  • 12th: 0.1 percent
  • 13th: >0 percent
  • 14th: >0 percent

Some round to 0.0 percent but are greater than zero.

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