But on average, simulations show that only 39 wins will be needed to secure a spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Boston’s projection without Rondo? 39.0 wins. So the Celtics are right on the bubble. Overall, simulations show Rondo’s injury decreasing the Celtics’ likelihood of making the playoffs by 14.2 percent.
Those numbers sound about right. As I’ve written, the Pistons’ playoff chances are slim. Rondo’s injury helps the Pistons, but they’d also have to pass the 76ers, who might get Andrew Bynum back soon.
A bigger boost than the loss of Rondo itself might be the Celtics rebuilding by trading Paul Pierce and/or Kevin Garnett.
Still, the Pistons hold the most cards here. They must continue to
get better during the season play Andre Drummond more to have a real chance.