Why haven’t we seen more Hack-a-Andre Drummond?

Kevin Pelton of ESPN did a phenomenal job covering the Hack-a-Shaq strategy, and you can read the three-part breakdown here, here and here.

Unsurprisingly, much of the analysis focus on DeAndre Jordan. But Andre Drummond – who has shot 37 percent, 42 percent and 39 percent in his three-year career – made a few appearances.

Pelton:

"The fouling break-even pointIf the observed results this year are a good indicator of what to expect in the future, the break-even point for intentional fouling being a favorable strategy is a player who makes between 44 and 45 percent of his non-intentional free throws. Given the offensive rebound rates and efficiency on those second chances (similar to teams’ overall offensive ratings, another finding that contradicts an assumption based on past studies and comes on a small sample size of just 20 offensive rebounds), we’d expect teams to score at a league-average rate when a 44-45 percent free throw shooter is intentionally fouled.That makes it tough to justify fouling players like Dwight Howard (52.1 percent) and Josh Smith (49.3 percent) under normal circumstances. But it suggests it makes sense to foul a class of players like Joey Dorsey (30.5 percent, explaining why he’s yet to play for the Houston Rockets in the playoffs), Andre Drummond (39.5 percent) and, of course, Jordan (38.0 percent)."

"Most hackedIn the past three seasons, Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan account for more than half of all intentional fouls. With the help of ESPN Stats & Information and Basketball-Reference.com, I found five other players had been sent to the line intentionally more than 10 times in that span.2012-132013-142014-15TOTALDeAndre Jordan1352109174Dwight Howard436715125Andre Drummond8131334Josh Smith102425Andrew Bogut92314Joey Dorsey001212Omer Asik61310"

"Worst shooter infrequently hackedIt’s mystifying that Howard has been intentionally fouled nearly four times as often as Andre Drummond, a 39.7 percent career foul shooter. Even this season, when Howard made a respectable 52.8 percent of his free throws, he still got hacked more often than Drummond in far fewer games."

Why hasn’t Drummond been hacked more? Two theories that probably work in tandem:

1. The Pistons have stunk throughout Drummond’s career. Teams usually intentionally foul away from the ball when trailing, and the Pistons haven’t led that often with Drummond.

Another way the Pistons’ overall struggles might manifest here: Teams probably don’t spend as much time game-planning against the Pistons as they would stronger foes. There’s a finite amount of time in each day, and teams might prioritize better opponents.

2. The Pistons’ offense hasn’t been that difficult to stop straight up. The two players hacked more often – DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard – have spent the last three years playing for good-to-great offensive teams. Drummond has yet to play for even an above-average offensive team. The math on hacking him tilts toward not as long as the alternative – defending Detroit’s base offense – is so unthreatening.

These circumstances could change quickly, though.

The Pistons should become better. They should hold more late leads. They should require opponents spend more time game-planning for them. They should score more on standard possessions.

If that happens, Drummond will likely face more intentional fouls. Pelton’s analysis found the strategy works, though we’re dealing with a small sample and the rule could change. For now, there’s little alternative but to trust Pelton’s findings and assume the rule will remain as is. If that’s the case, Drummond will likely get fouled more often.

Drummond’s free-throw shooting has mattered. It could matter exponentially more as soon as next season.

Hopefully, he finds a way to make major improvement at the line.