How will the Pistons fare in their 20 back-to-back games?
By Ricky LaBlue
The Detroit Pistons’ schedule was released Wednesday night, and there was certainly a noticeable sticking point with fans and players.
The Pistons are slated to play 20 back-to-back games next year, which is tied for a league-high. Also, the Pistons aren’t scheduled to play in any national televised games, not including games shown on NBATV.
Center Andre Drummond took to Twitter to voice his displeasure with the results.
20 back to back games ..... No national televised games..... Cool
— Andre Drummond (@AndreDrummond) August 12, 2015
If there is any consolation for Drummond and the Pistons, it’s that Detroit will not have to play four games in five nights. The Pistons had four of those situations last year.
Drummond’s displeasure won’t be able to change the schedule, so what should fans expect from the Pistons next season in their back-to-back games?
Well for starters, Detroit only had 14 back-to-back games last season. They went 5-9 in those games. That accounts for a 35 percent win percentage, which is slightly lower than their 39 win percentage overall last season.
To provide a bigger insight into how NBA teams fare historically, databaseSports totaled all back-to-back games played from 2001-2011.
There are four possible situations for a team when playing a back-to-back game.
First, home for the first game and home for the second game. The others are home/away, away/home and away/away.
For home/home games, teams won 52.2 percent of the time. For home/away games, teams won 37.3 percent of the time.
In away/away games, teams had their lowest win percentage at 32.9 percent. The highest win percentage for teams came in situations where a team was coming home from a road game. In that situation, teams won 60.5 percent of the time.
Obviously, these are averages and depend on a number of variables. For this instance, let’s say the Pistons will be an average team next year, which isn’t unrealistic.
Looking at the specifics of next year’s schedule, there are two games in which the Pistons will be in a home/home situation. According to the league trend, the Pistons should win both of those games.
There are six situations where Detroit will be coming back home after a road game. If the trend follows, they should win these six, giving them eight wins.
In both situations where Detroit will play a back-to-back game away from the Palace, they are expected to lose. There are 12 such situations, meaning the Pistons should go 8-12 in their 20 back-to-back games.
Of course, we should look at who Detroit will be playing in these games. Here are their opponents for their 20 back-to-back games. Judging from last year’s record and the changes on these teams, here’s how I think they would do.
Oct. 28 Utah (Loss)
Nov. 9 at Golden State (Loss)
Nov. 15 at L.A. Lakers (Win)
Nov. 21 Washington (Loss)
Nov. 30 Houston (Loss)
Dec. 7 at Charlotte (Win)
Dec. 12 Indiana (Win)
Dec. 23 at Atlanta (Loss)
Jan. 21 at New Orleans (Loss)
Jan. 30 at Toronto (Loss)
Feb. 4 New York (Win)
Feb. 22 at Cleveland (Loss)
Feb. 28 Toronto (Win)
Mar. 6 Portland (Win)
Mar. 12 at Philadelphia (Win)
Mar. 19 Brooklyn (Win)
Mar. 26 Atlanta (Loss)
Apr. 2 at Chicago (Loss)
Apr. 6 at Orlando (Win)
Apr. 13 at Cleveland (Loss)
If I had to pick these games, I’d have the Pistons going 9-11, which is close to the prediction based on historical trends of 8-12.
If the Pistons want to make the playoffs this season, staying afloat in back-to-back games is something they will have to do. When back-to-backs make up roughly 25 percent of your schedule, they become very important.
Nobody is expecting the Pistons to win 60 games this season, so going just under .500 on back-to-back games isn’t necessarily bad. If Detroit is able to go either 8-12 or 9-11 in those games, they should have a fairly good shot at making the playoffs in a weak Eastern Conference.
Next: Five Detroit Pistons games to watch in 2015-16