Small sample size theatre: Welcome back Brandon Jennings

The Detroit Pistons happily welcomed Brandon Jennings back to the fold less than two weeks ago, and his impact is already being felt off the bench.

The Detroit Pistons have had a weakness in depth at the point guard position since the beginning of the season, with neither Spencer Dinwiddie or Steve Blake fully being able to provide relief when starter Reggie Jackson went to the bench.

Fortunately, the Pistons had an ace in the hole in the form of Brandon Jennings. Less than a year after rupturing his Achilles tendon in a January 2015 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, Jennings made his return to the lineup against the New York Knicks on December 29th, scoring seven points and adding four assist in 16 minutes on the floor.

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We’re going to be dealing with a small sample size of just five games, 92 minutes and 178 possessions, but I think we’ve waited just long enough to take a peak at the impact he’s having with the Pistons, the second unit in particular.

Thus far through these five games, Jennings is averaging 8.2 points and 3.6 assists, playing 18.4 minutes per game.

This brings his per-36 minutes numbers to a respectable 16 points, seven assists and 4.3 rebounds. To go with these averages, his splits are .387/.333/.733. These averages are fine, particularly for a point guard coming off an Achilles rupture, but not particularly earth shattering.

His on/off numbers are a little more remarkable.

When Jennings is on the floor, the Pistons are outscoring their opponents 110.7 to 84.3 points per 100 possessions, a net rating differential of +26.4. I cannot stress enough, these numbers are subject to a great deal of variance, but we’re off to a good start here, and thus far it is remarkable how effective the second unit is when Jennings is at the point.

It’s worth noting that almost all of these minutes with Jennings on the floor have been with Stanley Johnson. When Jennings and Johnson play together, the net rating expands to +27.7, as the Pistons are outscoring their opponents 112.4 to 84.7 points per 100 possessions.

To expand the range of players added to this equation a bit further, when Anthony Tolliver, Aron Baynes, Brandon Jennings and Stanley Johnson play together, in 50 minutes and 96 possessions, the Pistons are outscoring the opposition 110.4 to 75, a +35.4 net rating.

Again, this sample size is infinitesimal, but the fact that there is a combo on the planet that this bench unit can dominate with like this for a sample of even 50 minutes should be a source of great hope for Pistons’ fans.

Let’s provide further context.

Lineups including the foursome of Tolliver, Baynes, Johnson and Blake have been outscored by a 102.9 to 87.5 margin per 100 possessions. That is a -15.4 net rating, and this is over a sample of 205 minutes and 373 possessions.

Jennings is still just getting back into game shape, so there is reason to believe his performance has not yet peaked, although these on/off numbers are clearly well beyond the range of what the Pistons could have hoped for.

Next: Brandon Jennings says he wants to be with the Detroit Pistons long-term

In summary, let’s not get ahead of ourselves, but it’s possible that Brandon Jennings’ return might just be all of what fans and the organization have been hoping it would be.

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