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Fixing the Pistons’ Defense

By Matthew Way

Mar 16, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Detroit Pistons forward Marcus Morris (13) and forward Tobias Harris (34) talk during the first quarter against the Atlanta Hawks at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 16, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Detroit Pistons forward Marcus Morris (13) and forward Tobias Harris (34) talk during the first quarter against the Atlanta Hawks at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Detroit Pistons’ defense struggled following their trade for Tobias Harris. Diving deep into the numbers gives us solutions for the coming season.

In 2015-16, the Detroit Pistons surged into the playoffs in the final two months of the season following their trade deadline acquisition of Tobias Harris.

After the Harris trade, the Pistons went 17-11, just good enough to make up for their 27-27 record prior to the trade deadline. The Pistons’ successful playoff push came largely on the strength of their offense, which produced a very good offensive rating of 105.2, 1.3 points per 100 possessions better than the league-average.  The Pistons’ offensive success, fueled partly by Harris’ good shooting and versatility, came at the expense of their defense.  Despite the Pistons’ 17-11 record following the trade, and 16-9 record with Harris in the starting lineup, the Pistons actually produced a negative net rating of -0.6 due to the defense regressing to the tune of a 105.8 defensive rating.

Looking closer at the lineup data, most of the defensive regression Ersan Ilyasova.  Looking closer at those lineups, it is clear that the two major defensive issues with the starting lineup were a lower opposing turnover rate and a significantly higher opposing effective field goal percentage.  The opposing turnover rate is a bit surprising, given how much more athletic Harris is, but Ilyasova’s length likely contributed to some more deflections.  The lower opposing turnover rate with Ilyasova makes more sense, though, when viewed in combination with the higher opposing effective field goal percentage.
Looking closer at the lineup data, most of the defensive regression Ersan Ilyasova.  Looking closer at those lineups, it is clear that the two major defensive issues with the starting lineup were a lower opposing turnover rate and a significantly higher opposing effective field goal percentage.  The opposing turnover rate is a bit surprising, given how much more athletic Harris is, but Ilyasova’s length likely contributed to some more deflections.  The lower opposing turnover rate with Ilyasova makes more sense, though, when viewed in combination with the higher opposing effective field goal percentage. /

With Harris in the starting lineup, opposing teams went after the Pistons at the power forward position.  Whether it was Harris or Marcus Morris playing power forward, teams took advantage of the Pistons’ smaller size at the position and often ran their offense through the power forward.  The inside-out approach often taken by Pistons’ opponents led to a slower pace and low-risk, high-percentage possessions for opponents.

Looking at opposing shooting numbers at specific distances, it becomes clear that the post-trade deadline Pistons struggled mightily to defend at two specific locations on the court: from 15-19 feet and inside 5 feet.
Looking at opposing shooting numbers at specific distances, it becomes clear that the post-trade deadline Pistons struggled mightily to defend at two specific locations on the court: from 15-19 feet and inside 5 feet. /

Pistons opponents’ shot 43.6 percent from 15-19 feet following the trade deadline, which is a full 3.3 percent above the league average from that location.  Mid-range shooting can be a bit fluky, so a number that high may be regress over a larger sample size.

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It’s also at least partly a function of how the Pistons were forced to defend with Harris and/or Morris at the power forward position.  When opponents initiated the offense last year against the smaller Pistons’ power forwards, the Pistons were often forced to double team the opposing power forward to prevent a high-percentage shot in the paint.

The consequence of that was a defender often had to abandon their counterpart and simply allow them to shoot an open mid-range jumper.  The good news for the Pistons is those mid-range troubles did not extend to the three-point line, where Pistons’ opponents shot fewer attempts at a worse rate after the trade deadline.  The Pistons would certainly rather their opponents shoot open mid-range jumpers than open three-pointers, but the difference between those two shots is often a simple schematic adjustment. That’s an adjustment which Pistons’ opponents will surely make if they continue to double-team opposing power forwards.

While explaining the Pistons’ opponents’ mid-range shooting may have several explanations, the opposing shooting inside five feet is easy to explain: the Detroit Pistons just weren’t big enough with Tobias Harris playing the power forward.

The natural first place to question when looking at the Pistons’ interior defense is their star center, Andre Drummond.  Drummond’s defensive production hasn’t quite caught up to his physical skills early in his career.  Drummond, however, showed some improvement in the second half of the 2015-16 season.  Even playing alongside a smaller power forward, Drummond’s defensive numbers inside six feet actually improved following the trade deadline.  Opponents shot worse against Drummond following the Harris trade, but they also shot two full attempts less per game against him than they did prior to the Harris trade.  Drummond, despite his defensive faults, was the Pistons’ best rim protector last year, so shooting less against him and more against the Pistons’ small power forwards made a lot of sense for opponents.
The natural first place to question when looking at the Pistons’ interior defense is their star center, Andre Drummond.  Drummond’s defensive production hasn’t quite caught up to his physical skills early in his career.  Drummond, however, showed some improvement in the second half of the 2015-16 season.  Even playing alongside a smaller power forward, Drummond’s defensive numbers inside six feet actually improved following the trade deadline.  Opponents shot worse against Drummond following the Harris trade, but they also shot two full attempts less per game against him than they did prior to the Harris trade.  Drummond, despite his defensive faults, was the Pistons’ best rim protector last year, so shooting less against him and more against the Pistons’ small power forwards made a lot of sense for opponents. /

Pistons’ opponents did just that: they took advantage of the Pistons’ smaller lineups by converting field goal attempts near the rim at a very high rate. Where Ersan Ilyasova was allowing opponents to shoot 62.3 percent inside six feet, Harris allowed his counterparts to shoot 65 percent inside six feet.  When that didn’t work defensively for the Pistons, they would often try Morris at power forward.

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When that happened, things got even worse.  Morris went from allowing his opponents to shoot 62.9 percent inside six feet prior to the Harris trade to allowing them to shoot 71.4 percent following the trade, a dramatic increase that can likely be explained by playing more out-of-position minutes at power forward.

Regardless of whether it was Harris or Morris defending power forwards, the Pistons struggled badly to defend the highest-percentage shots in the game.

The Pistons will likely have defensive issues again this season when Harris or Morris are at power forward.  It’s unlikely that the Pistons will simply abandon smaller lineups because of the versatility those lineups bring the offense.  And that’s fine, as long as the offensive advantages gained by playing small outweigh the defensive disadvantages.  But there certainly are going to be times where the Pistons need to bulk up the defense of their top lineup, particularly against bigger teams with the quickness to defend small power forwards.  Against those teams, the Pistons will need to find a way to stretch the floor offensively and still hold their own defensively.

In finding that solution, it’s important to look at what has worked in the past.  In the past two
seasons, the Pistons found success when they inserted Anthony Tolliver into
the starting lineup.

Last year, the starters with Tolliver were far more successful than they were either Ilyasova or Harris, particularly defensively.

Tolliver was an inconsistent shooter last year, but he spaced the floor well because of his quick release and willingness to shoot.  Opposing power forwards respected those abilities and didn’t cheat far off him, which opened up the middle of the paint for the Pistons’ guards to operate. Tolliver’s offensive presence was important, but his presence defensively led to great results during his time in Detroit.

In the past two seasons, Tolliver held opponents to under 60 percent shooting (58.9 percent in 2015-16, 53.3 percent in 2014-15) on shot attempts inside six feet.  Tolliver’s success defensively in that regard was on par with Drummond, and far better than the numbers of Ilyasova, Harris, and Morris.  For those offensive and defensive reasons, Tolliver will be missed this year as part of the Pistons’ power forward rotation.  But, Stan Van Gundy looked for, and found, a replacement in signing Jon Leuer.

Leuer brings the same combination of size and shooting that Tolliver brought the past two seasons.  Leuer is a career 37.5 percent three-point shooter, more than good enough to provide enough spacing to open up the middle of the court for the Pistons’ guards.  At 6’11”, he’s also big and strong enough to defend larger power forwards.  Over the past two seasons, Leuer has held opponents to 57.8 percent (2014-15) and 59.3 percent (2015-16) on shot attempts inside six feet, numbers reminiscent of Tolliver.  Leuer’s ability to both space the floor and defend could prove valuable to the Pistons in 2016-17.

It’s unlikely that Leuer will crack the starting lineup barring injury, but he does provide yet another potential solution for the Pistons to fix the defensive issues that plagued the team after last year’s trade deadline.  If the Pistons are struggling against a bigger opponent, Leuer can take on some additional minutes at power forward to help out Harris and Morris.  If Van Gundy wants Harris and Morris on the floor together, the goal should be to scheme so more of the shot attempts are funneled to Drummond.  The double teaming in the post that the Pistons tried last year was unsuccessful, so some of the responsibility could fall on the guards to force opposing offenses toward Drummond.

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Ultimately, Drummond needs to continue to improve defensively by recognizing plays and getting to more shot attempts near the rim, especially when the Pistons are in smaller lineups.  If Drummond can do that and Van Gundy carefully tailors his lineups to his opponents, the Pistons defense could finally catch up to the success that the offense saw following last year’s trade deadline.

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