Detroit Pistons: Pump the brakes on Glenn Robinson III

One of the newer Detroit Pistons, Glenn Robinson III, comes to the Motor City with a great deal of potential. Robinson should be a solid piece, but expectations may have been set too high.

This is admittedly a different position for me to be in.

Normally, my view on all things Detroit Pistons is overwhelmingly positive. Especially when it comes to players.

However, not long after the addition of Glenn Robinson III, hype started to rise that he should be the new starter at small forward.

Not only that, but there’s some belief that he could become a very integral piece for Detroit. Such as, being the consistent, two-way wing that the Pistons have lacked since the departure of Marcus Morris.

So, you don’t think that Robinson can start?

Robinson could very well win the starting small forward job for the Detroit Pistons. This is not meant to suggest that he isn’t a good player.

I liked Robinson coming out of college, and I liked him even more after a few years in the NBA. Especially given the contract the Pistons signed him to, the addition of Robinson should be a shrewd move by the Stefanski led front-office.

The point here is that expectations may be getting too high. Too many people see a talented wing with a small sample size and then, in their own minds, put him into whatever mold they happen to desire.

The end result could be a swift turn on Robinson, if he ends up not being whatever your personal, ideal version of a wing role player is.

What are your worries then?

First off, the shooting.

On the surface, Robinson is a reliable shooter. In his four seasons as a pro, he’s shot 38.1 percent from deep, which even if not at a high volume, is a respectable number.

However, people don’t realize exactly how low the volume for Robinson is. Sample size is a worry for a lot of other areas with Robinson, but his shooting is the biggest one.

First, consider his college career at Michigan. Over two seasons, Robinson was a heavy-minutes player who started all 76 games of his career. In those two years, he shot just 31.3 percent from beyond the arc.

There are some players (Reggie Bullock being a recent example) where you have confidence in their shot, despite struggling early on in their NBA careers on low volume.

If it is realistic to have confidence in a guy based on college, just as it is realistic to have some skepticism about a guy based on college.

Here’s the biggest thing.

Robinson’s 38.1 percent mark was acquired on 215 total 3-point attempts in his career. For some perspective, Reggie Bullock took more 3-pointers last year than Robinson has taken in his entire career.

Elite shooters like Klay Thompson, Steph Curry, Kyle Lowry, Damian Lillard and plenty of others hit more threes last year than Robinson has ever attempted as a pro.

Here is the scariest comparison for Pistons fans, if they want to truly grasp just how flimsy the evidence of that number of attempts (spread over several years) and spotty playing time are.

Before arriving in Detroit, Jon Leuer shot 37.5 percent from deep on 200 attempts. On top of that, Leuer was a 36.8 percent 3-point shooter on a pretty solid volume in college.

And yet, since arriving in Detroit, Leuer has shot just 28.8 percent from beyond the arc. He was pump-faking ghosts, and appeared to have completely given up on shooting threes at the start of last season, before suffering a season-ending injury.

I can’t believe you’ve done this.

To be clear, I am not suggesting that Robinson is going to completely forget how to shoot. Leuer’s shot falling apart so spectacularly is one of the stranger things that has happened in this league.

To flip it to the other side, before arriving in Detroit, Bullock went 31 percent from deep on 119 total attempts.

Since joining the Pistons, he has shot 43 percent from three on a high volume, and had a coming-out party last year, that, if he replicates, will solidify himself as one of the league’s truly elite shooters.

The larger point is not, “Jon Leuer forgot how to shoot so Glenn Robinson will too.” The point is that 215 total attempts is flimsy evidence to pin large hopes on.

One-hundred forty different players took more 3-point shots last year than Robinson has in his entire career. The Pistons on their own had five surpass his career total, and two others players were right behind him.

If Robinson ends up starting, or getting heavy minutes off the bench, he will very likely put up a career-high in 3-pointers this season. Hold off on calling him a good shooter, until we get to see that.

What if Robinson actually does hit that percentage though?

This is another thing. Even if his percentages hold up, Robinson is not really a shooter.

His shot takes time to load up, and he is not often quick enough to pull the trigger in the first place.

Teams won’t ignore him from deep in the same way they have Stanley Johnson, but he won’t provide great spacing. He simply hits more of the wide-open 3-pointers than Johnson does.

Are you going to say bad things about his defense?

No, not bad things. But more of the same.

He isn’t a lock-down guy, and will be at a size disadvantage against some of the bigger wings in the NBA.

Robinson is a good athlete, but he doesn’t always have great lateral movement, and can struggle to stay in front of quicker players.

If Robinson gets the starting spot, especially given the that either Luke Kennard or Bullock will be at shooting guard (with Blake Griffin at the four), he will be the one asked to take on the league’s elite wing scorers.

Robinson isn’t a pushover. But it’s an entirely open question as to whether or not he is ready for that challenge. 

This is a bigger problem for Robinson considering that Stanley Johnson, who is the competition for that starting spot, is a proven commodity as an elite defender.

Well, what does he do well?

Robinson is a great athlete, and a good offensive rebounder.

When teams ignore him too often, he has a real knack for sneaking into the open space for offensive rebounds and spectacular put-back dunks.

Thanks in part to him being forced to spend a lot of his college career at power forward, Robinson is better at doing the dirty work inside compared to most wings of his size. And he is fairly diligent when competing in those situations.

Also, his shot profile is excellent. Robinson takes the majority of his shots from beyond the arc or at the rim, and, with his aforementioned cutting and offensive rebounding, he is the type of guy who is capable of being an effective offensive player without needing plays ran specifically for him.

Beyond that, even if the sample size is small, Robinson’s track record as a shooter is worth something. Combine it with his time in college, and he is almost certain to be around the 34 percent mark, at the very least.

That isn’t good, but it’s probably better than what Stanley Johnson is likely to reach. And it is entirely possible that when given the opportunity to be the man on the defense, that he steps up and is very good.

So should he start?

It isn’t a bad idea.

The overall point here is that Robinson, despite entering his fifth NBA season, is largely an unknown.

There are things we know he can do with some competence at the NBA level. But we don’t know if he is actually good at any of them – other than catching alley-oops and finishing put-back dunks.

Considering that both him and Johnson are the only proper small forwards on the roster, he should be a useful rotation piece for the Pistons no matter what.

But there is a big step from being a useful rotation player, who gets 15-20 minutes per night, and a starter for a team trying to win ball games. Robinson’s only consistent playing time was when he averaged 20.7 minutes per game in 2016-17.

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