The Detroit Pistons start their 2024-25 campaign tonight at home against the Indiana Pacers.
There is a dulled excitement around the team, as fans want to believe they will be better, but have been burned enough to know better than to get our hopes up.
I am Homer #1 and even my predictions have been tempered so far this season, something that is about to change with some wild prophecies about what will go down this year.
#10: The Detroit Pistons will be the surprise good team
Last season, I picked the Indiana Pacers as my surprise team in the Eastern Conference and they made the ECF, so I am hoping some of that magic will rub off on the Pistons. While I don’t expect Detroit to make the playoffs, I do think they will outperform most predictions about their win total and end up with 30+ wins.
For most teams, that would be a poor outcome, but for the Pistons, it would be a big step in the right direction and a sign that Trajan Langdon isn’t going to be another Troy Weaver.
#9: The Philadelphia 76ers will be the surprise bad team
I picked the 76ers in this spot last season as well and they finished just 7th in the East. I said this at the time of the trade and I’ll say it again, relying on two injury-prone players on the wrong side of 30 with little depth behind them is not a recipe for success.
Embiid is already hurt and will miss at least the first week of the season. This was on top of announcing he won’t be playing in the second game of a back-to-back for the rest of his career.
Paul George is also out for the opener and if I were a Philly fan, I’d be concerned, as he played 74 games last season, which he hadn’t sniffed in the previous four. Odd how it came in a contract year... But are we likely to see it again? Nope. Philly will be lucky to get 100 combined games out of these two.
Philadelphia doesn’t have much quality depth behind them, as teams are not going to be scared of Andre Drummond and Eric Gordon.
I like Philly to finish even lower than last season and to possibly miss the playoffs.
#8: Cade Cunningham will make the All-Star team
This might not be a bold prediction, as Cade put up All-Star level numbers last year on a bad team. If the Pistons are closer to 30 wins this season, he’ll get some love, even though little has come this offseason.
I think Cade’s overall numbers will stay the same, though we will see a leap in assists and he’ll finish in the top-5 in the NBA in that category. That and an improved win total will get him his first All-Star nod.
#7: Jaden Ivey finishes top-5 in the Most Improved Player award
This would be a big deal for Ivey, as it will mean that the Pistons have likely won more games and that he was a big part of it.
We may not see huge bumps in his counting stats, though I do think he’ll be closer to 20 points per game, but we will see a big leap in efficiency and defense. Ivey could have the type of breakout season enjoyed by Coby White last year, where he puts up 20 efficient points per game and cements himself as this team’s second option.
#6: Someone other than the Boston Celtics will win the Eastern Conference
God, NBA writers are boring. I get that the Celtics are the defending champs, but I don’t think I’ve seen a single person not pick them to win it again. Repeating as champion is not easy even though Boston did run away with the East last season.
They probably will again, but last year they were relatively injury free (other than Porzingis who is really just gravy for them) which may not happen again.
I think things will be tighter this year and someone will knock Boston off in the playoffs. Either way, you won’t catch me picking the Celtics to win a title ever.
#5: Someone other than OKC will win the Western Conference
The West should be more competitive than the East, which is why is odd that nearly everyone has already anointed the Thunder as the clear favorite.
There is a great chance they will have the best regular season record again but it usually takes a few losses in the playoffs before teams get to the Finals, so I am not ready to crown OKC just yet.
They will have plenty of time to be the best team, as they already have the deepest roster, are still very young and have piles of draft assets to use to get another star if they want one.
Maybe this is just wishful thinking, but I am taking the field in both conferences.
#4: Ron Holland III will make the All-Rookie team
The Pistons got very little love for their selection of Holland II with the number five pick, something that will change after this season, as he is going to make an impact.
With Ausar Thompson out indefinitely, Holland II is going to play right away and if he defends like he did in the preseason, it will be hard to keep him out of the rotation.
He may not put up the counting stats of some of the other rookies, but he’s going to have highlight dunks and steals that will get him attention on the national stage. I like Holland to grab one of the spots on the All-Rookie second team.
#3: The Pistons will add talent at the trade deadline
Most of the talk around the veterans has been which one will be traded at the deadline, as both Beasley and THJ are on expiring contracts and may be coveted by contenders.
This will be the deadline the Pistons go the other way and use THJ’s expiring deal plus their $10 million in cap space to add a player.
I am not saying it’s going to be a superstar, but there will be guys like Brandon Ingram and Michael Porter Jr. possibly available if their respective teams underperform and they want to cut money.
Another team to watch is the Houston Rockets, who just committed a ton of money to Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun and could want to move a player like Tari Eason or even Jabari Smith Jr. before they are extension eligible.
Let’s hope the Pistons are in a position to want to improve at the deadline instead of giving away players for 2nd-round picks.
#2: The MVP comes back to North America
The last six NBA MVP awards have been won by players born outside the United States and while I don’t think that will change, it will at least come back to the continent when Canadian Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wins the award.
People are sick of voting for Jokic, Embiid won’t play enough games and Tatum and Brown will split their vote, which leaves Giannis, Luka and SGA as the most likely candidates. If the Mavs are near the top of the West, it might be time to finally crown Luka, which seems like an inevitability, but if OKC is the best team, then it’s SGA’ s award to lose, especially if he leads the league in scoring.
#1: The end of two eras
Even though both guys are still top players, I predict that both LeBron James and Stephen Curry will miss the playoffs this season.
The Lakers finished 8th last season and that was with LeBron and Anthony Davis both playing over 70 games. What are the chances that happens again? Without them, the Lakers are a lottery team.
The Warriors have a lot of question marks around their roster and are counting on unproven players, not to mention both Andrew Wiggins and Buddy Hield, guys I do not trust in the least.
Heild may replace Klay Thompson’s shooting, but he’s a woeful defender. Wiggins hopes to bounce back after a poor season last year, but if he doesn’t? This team has very little depth and barely made the play-in last season.
To be fair, both teams could make big trades that alter this projection, but as of right now, it’s hard to see either of them making the playoffs.