Detroit Pistons draft targets: Guard edition

We take a closer look at the top guard prospects who may or may not be on the board come pick No. 12 for the Detroit Pistons.

The 2017 NBA Draft is almost upon us and the buzz began in earnest over the weekend when the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers agreed to swap picks in a big-time trade. The Detroit Pistons, meanwhile, hold the 12th pick and are in the lottery for the sixth time in the last eight seasons.

The excitement will wane some by the time the Pistons are on the clock, but most agree that this is a very strong batch of prospects. There’s going to be some good players to emerge from this draft, and I don’t necessarily think all of them are going to be gone by pick No. 12. The Pistons will even settle for an impactful rotational piece at that point in the draft anyway.

More from Draft

• Draft asset rankings show challenges for Detroit Pistons
• NBA Draft: End the Lottery and create a Draft Tournament
• How the Pistons’ offense will improve after the 2023 NBA Draft
• Detroit Pistons draft grades: Did Weaver really hit home runs?
• Did the Detroit Pistons just draft Killian Hayes’ replacement?

There’s going to be plenty of interesting names on the board, and I wanted to break them down by position. We’ll get to the forwards and centers later, but, today, we’ll look at the guards.

For this exercise, I’m going to operate under two assumptions: (a) Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Jayson Tatum, Malik Monk, and Jonathan Isaac are all going to be off the board by pick 12, and (b) the Pistons keep the 12th pick and don’t move up or down via trade.

If that’s the way it plays out, these are the likeliest guard prospects the Pistons could draft.

Dennis Smith | PG | 6’3” | 19 years old | N.C. State

• Stats last season: 32 games, 34.8 minutes, .455 FG%, .359 3P%, .715 FT%, 18.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.4 blocks per game
• Draft range: 5-10, will most likely not be available 
• Why he fits in Detroit: Smith’s aggressive, explosive and attacking nature on offense would work perfectly alongside a rim-runner like Andre Drummond. The Pistons would also covet his ability to create offense for himself and others.

Dennis Smith’s stock has been all over the place. At the beginning of the college basketball season, he was talked about with the likes of Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball as a consensus top three, four or five draft pick. Then, it dropped a bit as his N.C. State team struggled and Smith fell in most mocks to the 8-15-ish range. Since April/May, it’s steadily climbed back up into the 5-10 range. But, still, it’s not inconceivable that he falls to 12, so I felt inclined to talk about him here.

Smith showcased his ability to facilitate an offense in his one year at N.C. State, where he made the All-ACC second team and won the ACC Rookie of the award. His score-first mentality was on full display as he ran the show for Wolfpack.

Smith’s biggest strengths are his physical gifts. He’s an explosive athlete, with speed, burst and leaping ability that jumps out at you. Plus, he’s very physical. Combined, this gives Smith an ideal skill set to create as a rim attacker in the NBA — one that would pair perfectly with a rim-runner like Andre Drummond.

While Smith has excellent form on his jumper, he too often settles for tough shots; and while he showed flashes of being an excellent facilitator, he was selfish far too often. His other oft-cited criticism is something Piston fans are all too familiar with: inconsistent effort levels. It’s hard to tell if this came as a result of the lack of talent around him or if it’s true nature.

Still, if he were to somehow fall to 12, the Pistons would be nuts to pass on somebody with Smith’s upside, especially as they continue to taut their “best player available” approach.

Frank Ntilikina | PG | 6’5” | 18 years old | Strasbourg (France)

• Stats (in French Pro A League) last season: 32 games, 18.3 minutes, .485 FG%, .431% 3P%, .621 FT%, 5.2 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.2 blocks per game
• Draft range: 8-11, not likely to be available
• Why he fits in Detroit: Ntilikina paired with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope would create one lengthy and active defensive-minded backcourt duo. Ntilikina would also let others like KCP, Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris shine because he always makes the simple and right play out of the pick and roll.

You have to spend a lot of time on the internet before you find a mock draft that has Frank Ntilikina slipping past the Knicks at No. 8, the Mavericks at No. 9, or, occasionally, the Hornets at No. 11.

This year’s highest-rated international prospect, Ntilikina is a French national who was born in Belgium to Rwandan parents. At just 18, he’s already making an impact for SIG Strasbourg of the French Pro A League. And most of that is happening on the defensive end.

Thanks to his wingspan that stretches over 7’0” and sharp basketball instincts, Ntilikina is one of this draft’s greatest defensive prospects. His highlight reel is chock full of impressive blocks, and he always seems to muck up passing lanes with his quick feet, great length and high motor.

He’s not useless on offense by any means, either. His jump shot looks pure (.431% from three this past season), and he doesn’t force anything that’s not there. His game is more about making the right play, even though he’s not much of a natural creator of offense.

That last point may be the reason why he doesn’t mesh with Detroit’s roster. The Pistons are desperate for offense, and Ntilikina is more interested in keeping the ball moving than creating his own looks. Still, Stan Van Gundy may be salivating at the defensive prospects of a Ntilikina/Caldwell-Pope backcourt if he’s available at No. 12.

Donovan Mitchell | SG/PG | 6’3” | 20 years old | Louisville

• Stats last season: 34 games, 32.3 minutes, .408 FG%, .354 3P%, .806 FT%, 15.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.5 blocks per game
• Draft range: 8-22, pretty likely to be available
• Why he fits in Detroit: The Pistons would welcome Donovan Mitchell’s aggressive defense, explosive athleticism and three-point shooting ability with open arms. By all accounts, Mitchell is a hard working and high character individual, which we know pleases Stan Van Gundy and Jeff Bower.

Mitchell is entering the NBA Draft after breaking out during his sophomore season at Louisville, where he made first-team All-ACC and the All-Defensive first team.

Mitchell makes his hay on defense thanks to his impressive physical tools. He has rangy arms with his 6’10” wingspan, great feet, a strong frame and speed. He was also known for being a scraper and going all out.

But the Pistons may covet him more for his offensive abilities. Scouts believe Mitchell’s shooting projects well thanks to his balance, rise and pure follow through. He’s also got an insane 40.5” max vertical that he uses to attack the rim, although he doesn’t do that nearly enough.

While he’s got a long way to go, Mitchell also tremendously improved as the ball handler in pick and roll sets last season. He proved himself to be a capable playmaker, though his decision making often left too much to be desired.

Mitchell’s lack of size and out-of-control tendencies may thwart his abilities to thrive at the next level, but there’s plenty enough to like to take him at No. 12.

Luke Kennard | SG/PG | 6’6” | 20 years old | Duke

• Stats last season: 37 games, 35.5 minutes, .490 FG%, .438% 3P%, .856 FT%, 19.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.4 blocks per game
• Draft range: 9-30, most likely going to be available
• Why he fits in Detroit: Luke Kennard provides the Pistons with exactly what they need the most: knock down shooting from three-point range. The fact that he’s a two guard and can facilitate offense doesn’t hurt his cause, either.

Kennard fills the Pistons’ biggest positional hole (backup shooting guard) and need (three-point shooting), so it’s easy to see why he’s a real possibility for the 12th pick.

Like Mitchell, Kennard is known for his shooting and is entering the NBA after making a huge leap during his sophomore season. Unlike the Louisville product, Kennard is coveted for his savvy basketball acumen as opposed to raw athleticism.

Kennard’s 19.5 points per game on 13.1 shots per game is a result of his impressive .490/.438/.856 shooting line and basketball IQ. He knows how to use his size against smaller defenders and how to get to his spots with ball fakes and footwork. He also excelled as a knock-down shooter off screens and curls.

The issue is that Kennard may simply not be a good enough athlete to make it in the NBA. He’s not very fast, quick or physical — issues that dampen his defensive prospects. Plus, it begs the question of whether or not he can create offense the way he was able to against collegiate competition.

Terrance Ferguson | SG/SF | 6’7” | 19 years old | Adelaide 36ers (Australia)

• Stats last season: 30 games, 15.2 minutes, .381 FG%, .313 3P%, .600 FT%, 4.6 points, 1.2 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.23 steals, 0.27 blocks per game
• Draft range: 13-25, very likely to be available
• Why he fits in Detroit: Ferguson is an explosive athlete that prides himself on his shooting abilities, but also shows a willingness to fight and compete out on the court.

Ferguson is an American who grew up in Dallas, Texas, but he followed the Brandon Jennings/Emmanuel Mudiay path of playing professionally overseas for a season in lieu of college.

And for a 19 year old, Ferguson did just fine in his limited minutes for the Adelaide 36ers of Australia’s National Basketball league (NBL). Quite raw and playing against grown men, you can see that Ferguson struggled at times due to his limited skill set at this point in his career. But you can’t deny his competitive spirit.

Though stick thin, Ferguson played physical defense and used his length and quickness to compete and defend at a high level. In time, it’s possible that his athleticism and competitive spirit will allow him to guard ones, twos and threes effectively.

In addition to his leaping ability and speed, Ferguson projects as a good shooter at the next level. With his excellent balance, elevation, and quick release, he’s ready to be a catch-and-shoot contributor right now, but he struggles to do anything off the bounce.

The problem is that Ferguson can’t do much else besides shoot and compete on defense as of now. He’s not strong enough for his 6’7” frame at around 185 pounds, he can’t create off the dribble, and he takes too many bad shots.

Ferguson is the dark horse of this group of five, and many consider him to be a boom/bust type of prospect. But he likes to defend and shoot from the outside, and we know this Pistons’ regime covets those abilities.