Detroit Pistons’ Andre Drummond will be a three-point asset in 2019-20

A way too hopeful prediction about Andre Drummond’s role in the upcoming Detroit Pistons’ season

Followers of Andre Drummond‘s social media last summer were met with a barrage of videos showing the Detroit Pistons’ 6-foot-11 center practicing 3-pointers.

With Dwane Casey in his second year in Detroit, fans familiar with the playing style of Casey’s team in Toronto were excited at Drummond shifting to a stretch-five role similar to that of Jonas Valanciunas.

Excitement quickly faded when this promise failed to carry over to the regular season. After going 1-for-3 in the season opener against the Brooklyn Nets, Drummond went on to miss his next six attempts and only connected on two of his next11 attempts following that opening game.

From here, Drummond’s attempts per game slowed, finishing the season with only 38 3-pointers attempted. Of these Drummond made five – a measly 13 percent. However, three of these five makes came as clock-beating heaves against Orlando and twice against Minnesota – something Drummond has been relatively successful with over the course of his career.

This off-season, workout updates have been nearly absent on Drummond’s social media, which, when compared to last summer, is unusual. But all quiet on the Drummond front may mean more than it appears. Here are three reasons why Drummond will make a splash for the Detroit Pistons from behind the arc in the 2019-2020 season.

1) Brook Lopez as a Beacon

At the demands of a changing league, Brook Lopez is the most recent NBA big man to make the switch from traditional-center to stretch-five, and, at 31-years-old, he is a good model for where the 26-year-old Drummond can be in a few years.

The change in Lopez’s game was prominent last year as he helped lead the Milwaukee Bucks to first place in the Eastern Conference and an Eastern Conference Finals appearance. However, it was a slow climb to his being taken seriously as a three-point threat.

Over the course his first eight seasons (bear in mind, Drummond is entering his eighth season this year), Lopez attempted an astonishingly low 31 attempts (3.9 per year). Of those 31 attempts, Lopez connected on three, all coming within his seventh and eighth years.

Like Drummond last year, Lopez tested the three-point waters in the season prior to seeing success from behind the arc. In his 2015-16 season, Lopez went 2-of-14 from deep, which measures at 14 percent (one notch better than Drummond’s 13 percent last year).

That following season Lopez’s numbers took off. He upped his season three-point attempts to 387, making 134 of them (a 35 percent shooting rate). In his 10th year, Lopez maintained his 35 percent 3-point shooting, albeit on slightly fewer attempts (112 makes on 325 attempts).

This last year, in what is perhaps his career year to date, Lopez became known around the league as a considerable three-point threat. He only increased his shooting percentage by two to 36.5 percent. However, Lopez increased his attempts over the course of the season to 512. On 187 makes, this meant Lopez contributed 225 more points off of 3-pointers than he did the year before, and 159 more points off three’s than in 2016-17, his previous season-high in makes.

Using Lopez’s career trajectory, a player a few years ahead of Drummond, as a model, there is still time for Drummond to develop himself into a reliable three-point shooter. If he follows up his season of testing the three-point shot in the way Lopez did, Drummond will be an asset from deep next year.

2) The Giannis Method

Giannis Antetokounmpo is arguably the league’s most private All-NBA player.

"“I don’t like all these flashy cities like L.A. or Miami,” Antetokounmpo told Marc Stein of The New York Times in November of 2017. “I don’t know if I could be the same player if I played in those cities.”"

Aside from hiding out in eastern Wisconsin, Antetokounmpo is famously secretive when it comes to his offseason workouts. He rarely posts his routine to social media in the way that many other players around the league do. Beyond that, Antetokounmpo avoids working out with other star players.

Although Antetokounmpo’s growth has come at both an unexpected and exponential rate that culminated in an MVP campaign last season, it would be absurd to claim that this privacy directly lends itself to improvement.

However, just because Drummond’s social media posts about his three-point workouts have dwindled, it does not mean he has abandoned improving the three-point shot. In fact, Drummond did leak one video earlier this summer that’s less-edited than last summer’s videos, shows him working with Detroit Pistons assistant coach Sean Sweeney and shows a cleaner, tighter form.

It is not hard to understand why Drummond might want to take a page out of Antetokounmpo’s book in the process of continuing to develop his three-point shot. With the regularity of posts last season, Drummond seemed to have the Pistons’ fan base ready for an immediate breakout season from behind the arc. Not only did Drummond fail to provide those expected results, but its imaginable that falling short in such a high-profile way led to a hit to his confidence and likely criticism from fans and players alike.

Drummond going off-the-grid leaves fans in the dark regarding his offseason progress toward becoming a three-point threat, but fans should not be surprised if Drummond reveals himself to be a reliable asset from deep this season.

3) Dwane Casey and the Stretch-Big

Dwane Casey is a good coach. Winning NBA Coach of the Year, which Casey received for his work in Toronto during 2017-18 season, is not an easy feat if one does not recognize the league’s general trends.

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The rise of positionless basketball and the stretch-big is not something that has escaped Casey’s periphery. Not only did Casey seem to be in the process of expanding Valanciunas’ game (who had similar three-point stat lines as Lopez’s early career) in the years before being fired by the Toronto Raptors, but Casey’s move to Detroit in the wake of that firing seems to be what sparked Drummond’s offseason three-point workouts.

The stretch-big is a key to success in today’s NBA, with players like Lopez and Drummond having to expand their games outward in order to keep up with younger stars like Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic or Kristaps Porzingis.

Casey lucked out by stepping into a team with a veteran big in Blake Griffin already expanding this part of his game. Griffin made small ripples in the news this summer for nearly matching his career total in three-pointers made in last season alone. Griffin, who went 189-of-522 last season, fills a role as stretch-big needed in today’s NBA.

Because of this, and because of Drummond’s assets as a rebounder and post player, it is unlikely Drummond will attempt 500, or even 300, three’s this season. However, if Drummond can launch in the range of 150 three’s this year and connect on them at Lopez’s 36 percent rate, opponents will have to take Drummond seriously from behind the arc, which in turn would open floor spacing and help young and undersized wings, like Bruce Brown, to finish at the rim.

Drummond will likely not see the production Lopez has found in developing his three-point shot, but with Griffin already in that role the Detroit Pistons don’t need him to. Despite a quiet offseason on his social media, however, don’t be worried to find Drummond behind the arc more often next season. And don’t be surprised when he finds success back there. Detroit Pistons fans have already seen it at the free throw line. Something will be next.

What are your thoughts on Drummond taking more 3-pointers to fit into Casey’s system? Lets us know in the comments or by liking Piston Powered on Facebook and following us on Twitter @PistonPowered.