The Detroit Pistons are hoping to land the number one overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft but if you are a fan of Detroit, prepare for that not to happen.
The Pistons have had some of the worst lottery luck in the NBA, and the one time they did get the #2 pick, they used it on Darko Milicic. Ouch.
The only way the Pistons will be guaranteed to land in the top-five is if they have the worst record overall, which is going to be tough given Detroit’s pluckiness and Minnesota’s shameless tanking.
Of course we hope it doesn’t happen, but we have to be prepared for Detroit to land outside of the top-five, which would be devastating but is not unlikely given the odds.
Detroit Pistons: What are the Pistons lottery odds?
The Detroit Pistons currently have a 52.1 percent chance of landing in the top-four and a 14 percent chance of getting the number one overall pick.
In other words, even with the second-worst record in the NBA, nothing is guaranteed for the Pistons.
They are three games back of the league-worst Timberwolves and if they can’t get the overall worst record, they could slip out of the top-five. I did five simulations with the Draft Simulator and in two of them, Detroit did not get a top-five pick.
Although this would be extremely disappointing, it might not be the end of the world. Troy Weaver has shown that he has an eye for talent and this is considered a deep draft, though most agree that there is a drop-off after the top five.
Here are four potential Pistons draft picks if their bad lottery luck continues and they don’t get a top-five pick.
Possible Detroit Pistons draft picks: Franz Wagner
One guy who has been rocketing up big boards lately is Franz Wagner out of the University of Michigan.
Wagner is a wing with point guard skills, a guy with a high basketball IQ who already has some professional experience in Germany.
Strengths: Wagner is a versatile player whose skillset fits the modern game perfectly. He is 6-foot-9 and can pretty much do it all. He can play out of the post or step out and hit 3-points shots, he is a gifted passer and will come into the league ready to play.
Weaknesses: There are some question marks around his defense and athleticism, though he has gotten a lot better on that end of the floor. He hasn’t been a high volume scorer and doesn’t get to the line much but otherwise Wagner is very skilled.
How he fits on the Pistons: Troy Weaver seems to like versatile players with good size who can defend multiple spots. Wagner would be another ball handler who can create, which is something they will need as Killian Hayes develops. The great thing about Wagner is that he would fit with just about any team, as he can play with the ball in his hands or off ball, can defend wings and some power forwards and should be lights out in the pick-and-roll.
Possible Detroit Pistons draft picks: Scottie Barnes
Scottie Barnes out of Florida State is another guy whose versatility and high basketball IQ may catch Troy Weaver’s eye if the Detroit Pistons drop out of the top-five.
Barnes is another forward with guard skills who has drawn comparisons to Draymond Green because of his playmaking out of the power forward position.
Strengths: Barnes can do a little bit of everything and is 6-foot-9 which is intriguing. He has a nonstop motor on both ends, runs the floor well and can create for his teammates in the fast break or in the half court. He is long and versatile and should be able to defend all over the floor. He could be a perfect small-ball center or power forward for a position-less team like the Detroit Pistons are building.
Weaknesses: Barnes can be a little sloppy with the ball and needs to clean up his turnovers. He has plus length but has not been a great shot blocker, though he does get a lot of deflections and steals. He can’t shoot from long range and and may never be able to, then again, they said all the same things about Draymond Green.
How he fits on the Pistons: So far, one of the traits Weaver and the Detroit Pistons have clearly coveted in the rebuild is relentless hustle. The Pistons play hard and are trying to build a culture around defense and effort. Barnes would fit right in with this ethos, as he is a guy who never takes a play off and could end up being a versatile force on the defensive end. Also, his playmaking would help take some pressure off Killian Hayes and Jerami Grant, who are going to be the Pistons’ primary ball-handlers next season.
Possible Detroit Pistons draft picks: Corey Kispert
The Detroit Pistons are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league and would love to add an elite shooter to the roster.
Corey Kispert out of Gonzaga could be that guy, as he is one of the best, if not the best, shooter in this draft and his skills should translate to the NBA.
Strengths: This guy can flat-out shoot. He is averaging nearly 20 points per game for the best team in college basketball and hits 44 percent of his 3-point shots on 6.2 attempts per game. He has a true shooting percentage of 69 percent and will be NBA ready from day one.
Weaknesses: Age and athleticism. Kispert is a senior and not many seniors get drafted. He’ll be 22-years-old at the time of the draft and many teams are reluctant to take guys who couldn’t make the leap to the NBA sooner. Kispert doesn’t have the ceiling of most of the guys in the top-ten but his floor is as high as just about anyone in the draft.
How he fits on the Pistons: Obviously, the Pistons are hoping to get one of the top guys and Kispert isn’t considered one of them, though he is in the top-ten of most big boards. He would fill an immediate void the Detroit Pistons have when it comes to shooting. He would also make it easy to walk away from Svi Mykhailiuk, who has not been consistent this season.
Possible Detroit Pistons draft picks: James Bouknight
If the Detroit Pistons wanted to add an explosive scorer next to Killian Hayes, then they could do a lot worse than James Bouknight, who may end up being the best scorer in this draft.
Bouknight is coming out of UCONN and already has the feel of a big-game scorer. This is a guy who could blow up on the big stage once he gets his chance.
Strengths: Bouknight can fill it up from all over the floor and is an explosive athlete with good size for the position. He has a high motor and is a plus-rebounder for his size, especially on the offensive end where he has a nose for the ball and for getting put back dunks. He’s averaging 20 points and 5.6 rebounds for UCONN and can get points in a number of ways.
Weaknesses: Bouknight can score from all over but is not a great 3-point shooter, which could hinder his game at the next level. He has the quickness and athleticism to get into the lane, but defenders will sag off him until he proves he can knock down the long-range shot at a higher rate. He’s not much of a playmaker and needs to work on his handles, as he turns the ball over way too much for a guy with his usage rate.
How he fits on the Pistons: If the Detroit Pistons would like to put another big guard next to Killian Hayes, then Bouknight would be a good complement, though they might have some troubles spreading the floor. The Pistons would have two big guards to build around which fits in with their ethos of long players who are versatile and can play multiple positions.
The Detroit Pistons hope they don’t have to make this choice, but let’s be real, history is not on our side. If they do end up falling out of the top-five, there are still plenty of talented players that could help the rebuild and Troy Weaver has shown that he can find them.