Yesterday I made the claim that the Detroit Pistons should have drafted Tyrese Haliburton at seventh overall instead of Killian Hayes. Haliburton is a frontrunner for the Rookie of the Year Award and has been playing lights-out basketball in Sacramento. Currently, it seems like Detroit dropped the ball by passing on Haliburton, but in the future, that may change.
Killian Hayes has played limited minutes all season, so it’s very hard to determine where he will end up when we reflect on the draft class of 2020. He is not a bust, but he is certainly not as polished as LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, Haliburton, or his Detroit peers Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart.
That doesn’t mean he won’t end up as the better player. While it seems far-fetched now, Killian Hayes has shown some promise that Haliburton simply hasn’t.
Detroit Pistons: Killian Hayes is a better defender than Tyrese Haliburton
Since Hayes has played significantly fewer minutes than Haliburton this season, per-game stats do nearly nothing for us. However, Hayes has a higher steal percentage, more defensive win shares, and a better defensive rebounding percentage already.
To a point guard, defense is one of the most important aspects of the game, and Hayes has shown no reason that he won’t improve. His long wingspan and quick feet allow him to play smothering defense on the perimeter, and his size and strength prevent forwards from barreling over him in the post.
Hayes’s defense is one of the reasons he has played as much as he has. He is an asset on the court, and his defense has only gotten better as more opportunities arise. There is no reason to think that Hayes won’t end up on the All-Defensive teams in the future, and Haliburton simply does not show that kind of promise. At worst, Hayes will be a better-than-average defender, and at best he will be a guard who can lock down anyone on the court.
Detroit Pistons: Killian Hayes is more versatile than Tyrese Haliburton
Right now, Haliburton is the better scorer. There is absolutely no debate surrounding this, but in a few years, we may be having a conversation. Haliburton is already a catch-and-shoot threat from deep, and Hayes simply can’t match the barrage of threes Haliburton can rain down. But from within the arc, Hayes has shown more raw potential.
Both players are a bit timid when it comes to scoring inside, especially when they are in traffic. When Hayes is confronted with a rim protector down low, he tends to throw up an underhand lefty scoop that simply is not that polished. If he puts on some muscle and takes the ball up, he could be more of a player who will meet defenders in the air.
Hayes also has shown skill when it comes to making room to shoot the three-ball. The actual success rate is not very high, but as he gets used to the NBA line his numbers will surely go up. His backstep and sidestep dribble give him some extra time to shoot, so he just needs to polish his open three-point shot and he’ll be knocking those down at a similar rate to Haliburton.
The midrange shot is where Hayes really blows Haliburton out of the water, especially on the elbow. Haliburton does not like to shoot from midrange, but Hayes has a shot chart that looks eerily similar to Chris Paul’s and Tony Parker’s. Even without a three-point shot right now, he can pull up or toss a teardrop from the free-throw line much like the future Hall of Famers.
Hayes just needs to get more confident with this shot to get to the next level as a player, as his passing and defense are already very good.
Detroit Pistons: Killian Hayes does more to help the team
Per 36 minutes, Hayes averages a full 1.1 assists more than Haliburton. This is not exactly a lot, but Hayes has already shown his swing passes can find each corner. He knows when to keep the ball off the floor and when to toss a bounce pass, and his passes are crisp and allow a shooter extra time to gather a shot.
Hayes has been setting up teammates who are not knocking down shots, so his assist rate will be much higher once he gets a few more shooters around him.
Since Hayes is not yet the scorer that Haliburton is, excelling at passing has allowed him to be a decent player already. His passes are cleaner, sharper, and he can swing across more distance.
Haliburton may appear to be the better player, but he does not play well with others. De’Aaron Fox has been deemed the future of the Kings for a few years now, but when he and Haliburton are on the court together their plus/minus sits at -13. Considering that as soon as next year these two guys will be sharing the court a lot, this is something the Kings need to figure out as soon as possible, otherwise, they’ll have a repeat of Sexland from Cleveland: two skilled guards who both need the ball to succeed, and can’t win games together.
Both players are very young. Haliburton just turned 21 and Hayes is still 19. One has had the spotlight on him all year and is already a star, one is taking more time to get there. When Hayes reaches that point, he could very well be remembered as one of the top players from the 2020 NBA Draft, and his premature label of “bust” will be shed if it hasn’t been already.