Detroit Pistons fans have been rubbing our hands together and chomping at the bit to discuss the 2021 NBA Draft now that the season is over.
I am definitely a #drafthead in addition to being in love with Dee-troit Basket-ball so you will mostly see me post on the draft. I wanted to start off by arguing for a player that I feel the Detroit Pistons should consider starting at #3: Scottie Barnes (FYI I am a Cade #1 and Mobley #2 guy just so you know).
With a reported height and weight of 6-foot-9 and 227 pounds he is roughly the size of Charles Oakley (6-foot-8 225 pounds) to give you a physical comparison. He played mostly point guard at Florida State this past year putting up the following basic and advanced stats:
10.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 4.1 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.5 bpg
56.1% from two-point range, 27.5% from three-point range, 62.1% from the Free Throw Line
54.8% True Shooting Percentage, 31.6% Assist Percentage, 20.7% Turnover Rate, on 23.7% Usage
Now, those stat lines seems underwhelming to many, but when you dig deeper into Barnes’ film, shooting profile and his game logs you can see a lot of positive indicators of a player who is an anomaly.
Here are his strengths, weaknesses, a few player comps and how he might fit on the Detroit Pistons.
Detroit Pistons: NBA Draft prospect, Scottie Barnes
I always like to start with the film so let’s take a look at what is there. The IDEA of a 5 position defender is talked about a lot, but honestly very few exist. In the NBA it really boils down to Ben Simmons and Bam Adebayo…and LeBron and Giannis when necessary but they don’t always do it due to their responsibilities on offense (and Draymond was definitely here too until this past season where his lack of quickness is starting to limit him).
And by 5 position defender I mean guys big and strong enough to guard 4s and 5s, but also just as quick and agile to guard guards and wings. And not just some bigs or some guards. I mean you can check Embiid and also keep up with Russ.
The term unicorn is used for the guys that stand 7 feet or taller that can shoot 3s because that is supposed to be a mythical combination. Well I see being a 5 position defender just as mythical so I came up with a term for this rare defensive skill using another mythical beast: Dragon
Scottie Barnes is a dragon. Cue up his game tape and you will see Coach Leonard Hamilton and the Florida State coaching staff deployed Barnes as the primary man-to-man defender on the ball handler in full-court press. If you don’t know what this means, Barnes was the guy covering the opposition’s point guard from the very first second they got the ball.
You had a 6-foot-9 227 pound Dragon in your face smothering you across the entire court. This is incredibly disruptive to an offense and the kind of mismatches NBA teams look for come playoff time…like players 7 feet or taller that can shoot 3s! Barnes’ best example of this may be against Indiana where he ran the full court press as well as hit the game winning shot.
And being 6-foot-9and 227 he never got out muscled or engulfed by superior length from any of the big men he and Florida State played this past season. If you watch Florida State’s two games against Georgia Tech this year you can see Barnes have some possessions matched up against 6-foot-9 233 pound ACC player of the year Moses Wright to get a better idea.
When watching these games too, it is important to remember Barnes is a freshman and Wright is a senior. Wright definitely took it to them the first game, but Barnes and the Florida State defense clamped down in that second game and made Wright shoot 38.5% from the floor.
Barnes also is an impressive finisher at the rim. You will see many evaluations on him downgrade him considerably because he is not a good shooter from distance right now, so I want to push back on that to show an area that Barnes excels at that is just as important as shooting 3s.
In today’s analytics driven NBA most teams want to excel at two shot types, three-pointers and shots at the rim. While it is true that Barnes shot 27.5% from distance, he also drained 70.6% of his shots directly at the hoop.
The only other potential draftees that finished better than Barnes were Charles Bassey at 77.5%(!!!), Evan Mobley at 76.3%(!!!), Franz Wagner at 70.8%, and one other guy I will write about in greater detail in a later post. So Barnes is in rare company here at getting to the rim at finishing.
This also accounted for 45.0% of his offense so this is not a case where he did not do it often. This was his main type of shot and what I would argue should be what teams should want him to do first and foremost.
Barnes also is the best playmaker in this draft class. If we look back at his stat line you will see an assist percentage of 31.6% For those that may not know what this means, let me break it down like this. 25% or greater is what you want from your starting point guard. 30% or greater is very rare and only expected from guys like Chris Paul and Lebron.
To put this in context, Ben Simmons posted a 27.4% assist percentage in his one season at LSU.
Barnes is posting a 31.6% at 6-foot-9and 227. This combination of size and passing ability makes him very hard to contain. He can pass out of just about any situation: pick-and-roll ball handler, running in transition, backing guys down in the post, making the second past to find the open shooter, and even on in-bounds plays.
And just to reiterate, this is the kind of skill NBA teams what to use as a mismatch come playoff time.
Detroit Pistons draft picks: Scottie Barnes’ weaknesses
BUT the reason many teams emphasize getting to the rim is that usually players can draw more fouls from this shot type and get easier points that way. So, Barnes might be shooting himself in the foot there since he only shot 62.1% from the line this year.
Free throw percentage can be a tricky thing to really get down at times, though. Sometimes a guy just hits a slump in a year. Some guys are still developing. And there is also what I like to call the Bruce Bowen where a guy is a TERRIBLE free throw shooter but a solid 3-point sniper. Well for Barnes I think he falls in the still developing category.
Diving into his game logs we can see that for the first 12 games he shot 51.4%. Yet, looking at the final 12 games he improved that percentage to 75.9%. So it seems like he had to shoot himself into form as the season wore on and it is always a positive indicator when you see numbers like this improve as the season progresses and a players gets more comfortable doing a certain skill on the court.
Also there are small indicators with his 3 point shot as well in this regard as he started the first 8 games shooting 26.3% and the next 13 games before the NCAA tournament he shot 33.3%. He only took 3 attempts from distance in the 3 NCAA tournament games he played in—and they were all in one game—but missed all 3 which then brought down his percentage to 28.6% for his final 16 games.
I am definitely NOT going to say he will be a great shooter or that his lack of shooting shouldn’t be cause for concern, but I do buy into that 33.3% he shot in the middle of the year for two reasons. Number one being his FT% improving throughout the year as he got more comfortable with that. And number two, he did not hesitate to take 3s or turn them down the way Ben Simmons or Isaac Okoro did in their college days.
And with 3s it is important that you know WHEN to take them. Of course hitting them at a respectable percentage is even more important to keep the floor spaced and defenses from sagging off you and sending extra help to your teammates. But if teams know you are not even going to attempt 3s then that makes you much easier to guard and Barnes definitely does not fall into that category.
Now, I don’t want to just handwave his lack of shooting because it is bad. I like to keep it real here ladies and gentlemen. His form is pretty stiff now and it’s clear he has a lot of work to do there. If you NEED him to be a shooter then move along because even if he does become one then it is going to take time.
But again, my argument with him is that he does so many other things well that he should not be downgraded as a result of his poor shooting thus far.
I would argue, though, Barnes’ biggest knock should be that his position is uncertain. While I have been arguing for his rare combination of size and skills, it also makes it tough for many an evaluator to know what to do with him. He played point guard at Florida State, but almost no one believes he should be a point guard in the NBA.
His size makes many want to slot him in as a power forward. While this is definitely an attractive option to take advantage of his skills as a Dragon on defense, what exactly his role on offense would be remains unclear. He definitely can handle the ball and be your secondary creator. You could also develop him as like a combo small/power forward and develop his passing and ball handling, but again I think the team that drafts him would PROBABLY want him surrounded by shooters.
Unfortunately, he also did not rebound the ball particularly well for someone his size as his rebound percentage was 7.4% on offense and 11.1% on defense. Those are criminally bad for a front court player and will cause some to say no way Jose to putting him at the 4. He will have to answer whether this is something he wants to do more and why he didn’t post better numbers while at FSU.
Detroit Pistons NBA Draft: Scottie Barnes player comparisons
His uncertain position definitely rears its head most when it comes to other trying to find a comp for him. Draymond Green and Ben Simmons are pretty common comps since he is a tall playmaker that can defend all 5 positions. But there are also some weird ones out there like the Ringer’s staff saying he is taller and bulkier Michael Carter-Williams. For me the more I watched of him the more he reminded me of San Antonio Spurs great Larry Kenon.
For those of you not familiar with that name, first go and watch some of his highlights and film on YouTube, then take a look at his stats and the teams he played on. In his prime years in San Antonio, Kenon averaged around 20 ppg, 3 apg, and 10 rpg as the secondary scoring option to the Iceman himself George Gervin.
Kenon played PF at 6-foot-9 and 205 pounds so physically he is pretty similar to Barnes as well. But, Kenon definitely was a guy that got to the rim and finished, utilized his size and vision to make passes shorter players could not see or defend, and—where Barnes reminds me most of him—he is a terror in transition finishing or finding his open teammate. Both guys seem to find another gear in the open court and the opposition usually stays clear as they are so big and forceful it is almost impossible to stop them.
For a modern comp, I think he falls somewhere between Ben Simmons and Bam Adebayo. I lean more towards Bam, however, as not only is he a multi-positional defender that can impact the game at a high level, he is game is not predicated on him being on ball the way Simmons is. He can be developed as a screener and he is a good cutter and DHO guy the way the Heat use Bam.
And like Bam does with the Heat, Barnes can fit his game to help his teammates succeed. Barnes played with potential #1 overall prospect in Cade Cunningham as well as Moses Moody, Day’Ron Sharpe and 2022 NBA prospect Caleb Houstan in high school on a highly successful Monte Verde Academy team. He also played in lineups with 2 non-shooters at FSU in Raiquan Gray and Balsa Koprivica and the team went 18-7 and grabbing a #4 seed come March Madness.
Detroit Pistons: How does NBA Draft prospect Scottie Barnes fit
One of the reasons I think the Detroit Pistons should take Barnes starting at pick #3 is because they have the time and in the rotation to develop Barnes. He is a long-term investment who could be developed to take Grant’s role should he depart in after his deal is up or he is traded. He definitely does not profile as shooter the way Grant is, but he is a far superior playmaker and just as great of a finisher.
Barnes definitely has shooting support already in place with Saddiq Bey and Jerami Grant for sure returning, Frank Jackson very likely staying on with the team, Wayne Ellington being a possibility to stay as a vet they really like, and even Deividas Sirvydis, Hamidou Diallo, and Beef Stew showing promise as long-range shooters. And really a Barnes/Saddiq combo at forward is a strong defensive presence while also being a pair with complementary skills on offense. Saddiq shoots and Barnes finishes.
Barnes’ ability as a passer and to run pick-and-roll will help unlock a lot more open shot opportunities not just for Bey’s 3 ball, but also Beef Stew as a roller, Diallo as a cutter, and give Killian more off-ball opportunities the way Coach Casey has talked about.
His lack of a “true” position should be more attractive for a team like the Detroit Pistons who really are just looking to build a talented young core that fits together. They could spend this 2021-22 season throwing out lineups like Killian-Barnes-Saddiq-Grant-Beef Stew to see if Barnes can continue to develop his guard skills and create a huge mismatch with his size.
Barnes is one of the bigger gambles in the draft since his skillset isn’t based around being a shooter, but I think he is definitely worth that gamble as he will pay out in multiple ways on the court.