When the Detroit Pistons signed Jerami Grant to a three-year $60 million contract last offseason, no one thought it would turn out to be one of the best value contracts in the NBA.
At the time, Grant was in search of a larger offensive role as he entered the seventh year of his professional career. The 27-year-old cited the opportunity to play for a black GM, a black head coach, and in a city that was majority black as other factors that led to his decision to join Detroit.
It certainly was not the money. Grant’s former team, the Denver Nuggets, were willing to match the contract offer made by first-year Pistons GM Troy Weaver.
Ultimately, Grant left a championship-contending team in favor of the plethora of opportunities afforded to him by the Motor City.
The 27-year-old power forward made the most of his new role as he produced career-high numbers in points per game (22.3), assists per game (2.8), and minutes per game (33.9). Grant quickly became the best player on a competitive Pistons team that struggled to finish games. After the departures of both Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin, the Detroit Pistons were unequivocally Grant’s team.
As a result of Grant’s breakout season, the 27-year-old was named a finalist for the NBA’s Most Improved Player award. He would ultimately fall short to the New York Knick’s Julius Randle, who received 12 votes for the MVP award as well. Grant also garnered himself a spot on the United States Olympic team as well.
Detroit Pistons: Where does Jerami Grant fit on the timeline?
Grant has two years remaining on his current contract, and if he continues to play at the level he was able to this past season, there is no doubt he will be in line for a serious pay raise come the 2023 offseason.
But for as good as Grant’s play for Detroit has been, the franchise is still multiple seasons away from deep playoff runs and competing for a championship.
By the 2023 offseason, Grant will be 29. Midway through that next season, he will reach the wrong side of 30.
Detroit is not likely to be ready to compete for a championship, let alone deep playoff runs at that point in the power forwards career. And while Weaver’s restoration appears to be progressing well, a true timeline for contention is not yet clear.
While it is no guarantee, many NBA players begin to decline once they pass the age of 30. Grant could very well still be an All-Star caliber player by the time his contract expires, but there is no guarantee he can continue that level of play as he continues to age.
These factors beg the question of whether or not Grant fits the timeline for this young Detroit Pistons team. Ultimately, before Grant’s contract expires, Weaver will have to make a decision on whether to maximize his trade value or re-sign the breakout star to a lucrative contract extension.
Detroit Pistons: Jerami Grant’s career arc does not fit the timeline of this young core
Over the past two seasons, Weaver has acquired multiple draft picks to comprise a promising young core for Detroit’s future.
It all started at the 2020 NBA Draft. Along with Detroit’s seventh overall pick, Weaver traded for the 16th and 19th picks as well. Weaver’s draft haul from the 2020 draft included Killian Hayes at seven, Isaiah Stewart at 16, Saddiq Bey at 19, and Saben Lee in the second round.
During the 2020-21 season, Weaver would acquire 23-year-old guard Hamidou Diallo from the Oklahoma City thunder.
This offseason, Weaver continued to collect young talent as the second-year GM made four picks in the 2021 NBA Draft.
The draft lottery favored Detroit and the Pistons landed the first overall pick, moving up one spot in the Draft. With the first overall selection, Detroit took Cade Cunningham, the consensus top prospect in the 2021 draft class. Two of Weaver’s second-round picks, Isaiah Livers and Luka Garza, will spend time with both the Detroit Pistons and the team’s G-League affiliate the Motor City Cruise.
In all, the Pistons will enter the 2021-22 season with 10 players (including two-way contracts) at the age of 23 or below on their roster.
Grant will be over the age of 30 by the time Detroit’s restoration comes to an end. The prime years of his career will be behind him, and Detroit will not be getting the same level of play they are now.
Ultimately, Grant’s career timeline does not match that of this young Pistons core. If he wants to be a high level player competing for a championship, Detroit is not the place to do so quite yet. If he is willing to wait, mentor these young players, and compete for a championship while his level of play is on the decline, this is the place to be.
Ultimately, while Grant has his own decisions to make about his future with this developing Detroit team, Weaver and the front office will have to do the same.
Maximizing Grant’s trade value before his contract expires could net them a young prospect and potential star. Keeping him around would provide this young group with a veteran to mentor them. The team would also be hoping that Grant’s level of play can remain high enough to make him an effective player for his pricetag heading into his 30s.
Detroit Pistons: Jerami Grant’s next contract won’t be a value
As a 27-year-old, Grant will be out of his prime by the time Detroit’s young core is beginning to reach theirs.
Additionally, by the time Grant’s current contract expires, All three of Detroit’s first-round rookies will be eligible for extensions. Stewart and Bey have shown a lot of promise so far in their young careers, and it would come as no surprise if the pair received wealthy contract extensions from the team. Hayes is a bit more of a question mark, but if he develops his shooting and finishing ability, he will also garner at least a decent sum of money.
Cunningham’s contract extension be up the following season, and it is pretty much expected he will receive the max offer possible.
All told, the Pistons could end up with Grant, Stewart, Bey, Cunningham, and possibly Hayes all taking up the majority of their cap space. For a franchise that is not exactly known as a place for players to relocate to at a discount, capping out on this quintet could stall the rebuilding process for Detroit.
Hayes would likely be the first to go if the Pistons came down to a cap crunch, but Grant would hold a much higher annual salary on his potential contract extension than any of the other players on the roster.
With Grant being much older than the rest of Detroit’s core players along with his massive cap hit on a future contract, he would be the prime candidate for a potential trade in the next two seasons.
There would be no better time to trade him than while he is on his current deal. Once Detroit signs him to a lucrative extension, his trade value will begin to plummet.
On his current contract, Weaver could send Grant to just about any team looking to take the next step. He could get his hands on any prospect those teams have for Grant and a pick or two at most.
After an extension, there is no point in trading Grant. He’s locked in and his larger payday would make it harder for Detroit to send him to other teams without taking back a bad contract, not exactly what they are looking for when they will already be capped out.
Detroit cannot really go wrong, either way, trading Grant or keeping him will both have relatively positive outcomes. Trading him could net Detroit another young star. If they keep him, he could still be helpful to their championship aspirations, just in a smaller role.
Detroit Pistons: Jerami Grant can keep Detroit relevant as he ages
If trading Grant to maximize his value and get a young star is not an option. Re-signing him to help mentor this developing team is the next best option.
Again, It is not a guarantee that Jerami Grant can continue playing at a high level into his 30s. Chris Paul and Lebron James are the exceptions, not the rule. But that being said, Grant could still be an effective quality player for Detroit as he ages.
Consider Paul Millsap. Since leaving the Atlanta Hawks as a 32-year-old, Millsap’s play has been on the decline. But the now 35-year-old vet has been helpful to the Nuggets over the past couple of seasons. He was no longer a top option, but he played very well in a reduced but still prominent role.
As he begins to cross into his 30s and Detroit begins to push further towards contention, Grant could very well fill a similar role to Millsap’s on the Nuggets. He may not be the primary, secondary, or even tertiary scorer on any given night, but he can sink his shots and play defense. That could be a similar role that Grant ends up filling once the Pistons begin to contend.
In the meantime, Grant can be a mentor for Cunningham, Hayes, Stewart, and Bey. His near All-Star level play for the next few seasons will also help keep Detroit basketball relevant as they continue their restoration.
By the time Detroit is ready to compete, Grant will not be the same player that he was this past season. But the 27-year-old can still play a very important role for the Pistons once they are ready to go for it all.