The Detroit Pistons are hoping they have found a steal at the back end of the NBA Draft in center Luka Garza.
The Pistons will be one of the youngest teams in the NBA, and it’s difficult to predict the trajectory of young players, especially rookies.
We’ve seen Summer League legends disappear when the games got real, but the Pistons are excited about what they’ve seen from Garza so far and he is the frontrunner to claim their final roster spot after signing a two-way contract this offseason.
Garza was the national player of the year in college, but scouts doubted his athleticism and foot speed even though he clearly has a ton of skill.
I was one of those doubters and thought Garza was a prospect to avoid, but after watching him this offseason, I wouldn’t bet against him making the roster and an impact.
Detroit Pistons: Luka Garza is set up to succeed
The Detroit Pistons don’t have a third center on the roster at the moment, so unless they envision a guy like Trey Lyles getting some minutes there in small-ball lineups, Garza will likely be the guy.
He adds another big shooter to the roster to go along with Kelly Olynyk, but unlike Olynyk, Garza isn’t afraid to mix it up on the inside as well.
Garza has been putting in the work, has gotten himself into much better shape and looks noticeably slimmer and quicker since being drafted.
But can the Detroit Pistons really count on him to make an impact in his rookie season? If so, what might that look like? Here are the best and worst-case scenarios for Luka Garza.
Detroit Pistons: Best-case scenario for Luka Garza
The Pistons struck gold with their two-way contracts last season and hope to do it again with Luka Garza. Unlike Saben Lee and Frank Jackson, last season’s two-ways who eventually made he roster, Garza might get a full-time contract before the regular season starts.
The best-case scenario for Garza is that he gets that full-time contract some time in training camp and that he immediately makes the rotation as the third center.
I think this is a distinct possibility, as the Pistons don’t have many bigs and they could use another guy who can rebound and add some muscle to the interior.
In this scenario, Garza would start building rapport and chemistry with one or more of the playmaking guards, and make himself into a real threat in the pick-and-roll.
He would also prove that he has the foot speed to defend the pick-and-roll, as teams are going to test him right away to see if he can switch on perimeter players, which is a must-have skill for modern NBA bigs.
If things go perfectly for Garza he will emerge as the steal of the draft, averaging around 10 points and five rebounds per game while shooting a high percentage from the 3-point line.
He averaged 15 points and 9.6 boards in Summer League while shooting 40 percent from deep, and the best-case scenario is that he gets somewhere near those numbers in the regular season.
Detroit Pistons: Worst-case scenario for Luka Garza
Workout videos, Twitter hype and Summer League are great but in the end, Garza has to prove he can do it against elite competition when the games are real.
I have no doubt that Garza can dominate many first and second-year NBA players, as he is very skilled and has a high basketball I.Q., which will be enough some nights.
But what about when he has to go against the best players? NBA teams target any weakness and if they discover that the scouts were right and Garza doesn’t have the quickness or athleticism to defend in the NBA, we will know it quickly.
The worst-case scenario is that Garza can’t defend and that teams just target him in the pick-and-roll over and over again, negating any positives he brings on offense.
Garza has gotten a fair amount of hype relative to his draft position, so he’s going to have a big bullseye on his chest when he comes into the games. Think of Luke Kennard, another very skilled offensive player who often can’t get run because of his defense.
Luckily Garza has a high motor and good work ethic, which will hopefully be enough to overcome any perceived athletic shortcomings. He’ll get tested early and often but if he can prove himself, teams will back off.
I predict Garza will be closer to his best-case scenario than his worst, and that the Detroit Pistons will have another gem that they found later in the draft.