All-Star break seems like a good time to look back at some of the preseason questions and expectations we had for the Detroit Pistons.
I was optimistic but realistic coming into the season, and I predicted that the Pistons would win fewer than 25.5 games, which was their preseason over/under.
I predicted another 20-win season and unfortunately, it looks like I was right. The reverse jinx did not work, as I was secretly hoping the Pistons would challenge for the play-in tournament.
We also sat down with James Edwards III from the Athletic, who was nice enough to answer some preseason questions and make some predictions of his own.
James is one of the Pistons’ best beat writers and did an admirable job with these questions and predictions, nailing most of them, though like all preseason predictions, there were a few that didn’t pan out.
Here are some of the most interesting responses and how they compare to reality in hindsight.
What kind of player will Cade Cunningham be for the Detroit Pistons?
James’ answer then:
"“I think it’s going to be similar to what you saw in Summer League. A guy who is going to initiate some offense. A guy who is going to play off-ball next to Killian. I think his jump shot is going to be his greatest strength as he starts. He shot 50 percent in Summer League, in very few games but he shot 50 percent. His shooting is going to be what he is able to fall back on as he gets adjusted to NBA speed, length, athleticism. They should expect defensive effort too, there’s some real defensive potential there.”"
The reality:
It looks like James’ answer was spot-on, though Cunningham has not shot the ball as well overall as we might have expected. It turns out that his inside game has been more important than his 3-point shooting, and he has shot fewer from long range as the season goes on.
Cunningham has put in the defensive effort as well, is currently second among rookies in steals and has been a force on that end at times.
Who will be the odd man out of the Detroit Pistons’ rotation?
James’ answer then:
"“When everybody is healthy I think Frank Jackson and Josh Jackson earn the backup wing minutes over Hamidou Diallo. Not that Hamidou played bad, I just think the other two popped a little bit more and are bringing more of what Casey is looking for right now. Saben Lee, I think it’s going to be tough for him to find minutes with Corey Joseph, Killian and Cade…”"
The reality:
This was somewhat right, as Frank Jackson has seized a role in the rotation and Saben Lee has found it difficult to find minutes. However, Diallo has definitely separated himself from Josh Jackson, who was recently traded in the Marvin Bagley III deal. Jackson never panned out in Detroit and the preseason optimism many of us had was quickly vanquished.
What has been the biggest surprise of the Pistons’ preseason?
James’ answer then:
"“Josh Jackson’s decision-making has been great, for the most part. I really liked some of the passes he’s made, the extra pass. He’s playing very simple. He’s still being Josh Jackson and being aggressive and scoring the ball, but he’s toned down on some of his turnovers by making the right read and not trying to force as much as he has in the past.” “Trey Lyles has looked good, obviously as a floor spacer but putting the ball on the floor and making things happen has been, I’m sure for Dwane Casey, good to see. Frank Jackson is picking up where he left off last year scoring the ball. Jerami Grant looks comfortable and confident in his role. He knows where he’s at in his career, what the team needs and what he is able to do with a year under his belt.”"
The reality:
Like I said, many of us thought Josh Jackson was going to make the leap this season but he quickly reverted back to poor decision making, turnovers and bad shots, which is why he was shipped out. This once again proves how meaningless preseason can be, as Jackson looked to be cleaning up his issues but that didn’t carry into the regular season.
James was one of the only people to hype Trey Lyles, which turned out to be a good call, as he was pretty good off the Pistons’ bench for a stretch.
While Grant might have looked comfortable in his role in the preseason, that has somewhat changed as the season has gone on, mainly because of the injury that kept him out for most of the season. Grant’s role on this team is still one of the big questions hanging over the season and upcoming offseason.
What are the strengths and weaknesses of the Detroit Pistons?
The weaknesses
James’ answer then:
"“I think turnovers are going to be an issue. They struggled with turnovers for most of the preseason and that was without their two young backcourt guys playing together. The history of the NBA says young guards struggle with turnovers. and I think Cade and Killian are going to struggle with turnovers.”"
The reality:
Nailed it. The Pistons are 24th in the NBA in turnovers and Cunningham leads all rookies.
James’ answer then:
"“Rebounding is going to be interesting. Are they going to get enough from the wing guys to help Isaiah Stewart, like Jerami Grant? Casey said on Sunday he wants Grant to have five or six rebounds, at least, a game. Frank Jackson had some really good rebounding games, can he keep that up? Same with Josh Jackson, can he keep that up? They’re going to need a group effort to rebound well.”"
The reality:
James was spot-on once again, as the Pistons are 28th in team rebounding and have a roster that is probably too small right now. This is one of the biggest needs to address in the offseason.
The strengths
James’ answer then:
"“It’s the fight that they have. This team is made up of guys who compete at a very high level, who compete throughout the course of a game. I think they’re going to stay in a lot of games and make games very annoying for better opponents because of that, similar to last year. It’s going to be a continuation of that. It’s a team that’s going to play hard night-in and night-out and I don’t think that’s going away.”"
The reality:
This has been a big problem, as the Detroit Pistons just haven’t consistently had the effort they had last season, though they have shown it at times.
I do think the is the product of not having enough veterans, as it is hard for young players to consistently stay focused when the losses are piling up. I still think James was right about this, but the Pistons just don’t have as much talent as last season, which has led to more blowouts.
While their lows have been lower than last season, I do think their highs have been higher, so even though they haven’t been as “scrappy” as last season, the fight is still there and I think the Pistons have identified players who care, which is a good sign.
Who on the Detroit Pistons will have a breakout season?
James answer then:
"“I think Frank Jackson could get some more national recognition as a Sixth-Man of the Year type of guy. I think that depends on Detroit’s record, but I think Frank could come off the bench and get you double figures scoring. I think he has that in him. It’ll be interesting to see if he gets there. From what we’ve seen in the preseason, he’s lighting the basket up, he’s shooting well, he’s getting to the rim. I think there’s potential there for a more nationally recognized season for Frank Jackson.”"
The reality:
Though Frank Jackson’s season might not qualify as a “breakout” season, he has played very well at times and established himself as a key bench piece moving forward.
When Jackson is on, he is electric off the bench and is a guy who can give you 25 points and win the game.
But like all of the Pistons, he has struggled with consistency and his shooting numbers have plummeted from last season even though he is scoring more.
Jackson is not in the 6th man of the year discussion, but I don’t think he’s far from it and can get there with continued development next season.
What is the next step in the Detroit Pistons’ restoration?
James answer then:
"“Establishing who is going to be here long-term and who is not. I don’t think they’re going to do a ton of winning this year. With all their cap space coming up I think they’re going to try to have a good idea on who’s going to be here long-term, who maybe they want to cut bait on. I think maybe quicker than expected they’re going to make some decisions on young guys because they do have so much cap space coming up. I think that they’re establishing who is truly part of the core when you’re talking three, four years down the road from now.”"
The reality:
James really hit the nail on the head with this one, as this has been the biggest issue hanging over this season. Jerami Grant managed to stay in Detroit at the trade deadline, which is somewhat of a surprise, but his future is still far from secure.
The Pistons already cut bait on Josh Jackson and Trey Lyles and I’d say a few more of the veterans will be jettisoned in the offseason.
The good news is that Saddiq Bey has established himself as a second piece and Cade Cunningham looks like a star, so the Pistons have identified some core pieces, but there is still a lot of work to do in this area.
What is the Detroit Pistons’ ceiling this year?
"“The absolute ceiling would be being one of the play-in teams, the ninth, tenth seed. I don’t know if I’d bet money on that happening, but I think it wouldn’t be a complete shock if Detroit got one of the last two play-in spots this year.”"
The reality:
I agreed with James in his assessment of the Pistons’ ceiling. If every single thing bounced right for them in terms of injury and development, I think they could have sniffed the play-in tournament.
Those things didn’t happen, as the Pistons lost Cunningham, then Grant and Kelly Olynyk and have gotten inconsistent development from Killian Hayes and Isaiah Stewart.
As far as preseason predictions go, these were pretty accurate, and James Edwards III was able to touch upon many of the issues that are still troubling this team.