Marvin Bagley III scored 27 points last night for the Detroit Pistons and Kelly Olynyk scored two, which is symbolic of the problem the Pistons face this offseason.
Olynyk’s season has been a disappointment by any measure, as he’s had to miss a fair chunk of the season with injury and has been largely ineffective when he has played, logging some of the worst numbers of his career.
Olynyk was last offseason’s big free-agent addition and is making just over $12 million this season and next with a partially guaranteed contract in the 2023-24 season.
It’s been a hard luck year for Olynyk, who has never really found a rhythm or defined role off the bench for the Detroit Pistons.
These factors might lead to him being the odd man out next season, as it is possible the Pistons will add multiple bigs that will force a decision on Kelly Olynyk.
Detroit Pistons: Kelly Olynyk by the numbers
Kelly Olynyk was brought in to be a floor-spreading big off the bench, a guy who would benefit both Cade Cunningham and Killian Hayes in the pick-and-roll and provide some veteran leadership.
But Olynyk hasn’t really been that guy. He is shooting just 34 percent from 3-point range on 3.1 attempts per game, both near his career lows. His effective field goal percentage of 51 percent is the lowest since his rookie season.
His pick and roll prowess has yet to show itself, as he has the lowest frequency among the Pistons’ bigs and shoots the lowest percentage out of the pick and roll.
Consider this: Olynyk shoots just 40 percent overall out of pick and roll plays, while Marvin Bagley III shoots 68 percent on a higher frequency. Pick and roll plays involving Olynyk lead to points just 39 percent of the time, lowest on the team.
He hasn’t been effective at the things the Detroit Pistons signed him to do, whether that is because of injury or fit is hard to say, but Olynyk is having one of his worst seasons as a stretch big.
Olynyk can play both power forward and center but has logged most of his minutes as the backup five this season.
But what about moving forward, is there going to be a place for him in the rotation?
Detroit Pistons: Kelly Olynyk, Marvin Bagley III and Isaiah Livers
Since Kelly Olynyk is more of a hybrid big who plays on the perimeter, he could get minutes next season at both the four and five.
But right now the Pistons have both Jerami Grant and Isaiah Livers under contract at power forward and are likely to try and re-sign Marvin Bagley III, who has found new life in Detroit.
Even if the Pistons were to trade Jerami Grant, they are likely to draft another big if they land in the top-3 of the 2022 NBA Draft, potentially adding another power forward into the mix.
If the Pistons have Bagley, Banchero/Smith/Holmgren and Livers going into next season, it’s hard to see Olynyk getting much run at the four.
He is obviously better than Livers at this point in their respective careers, but Livers is on a minimum rookie contract, is more versatile defensively and has shown the ability to knock down 3-point shots.
The Detroit Pistons could go into next season with four power forwards under contract, not including Olynyk, so I don’t see him carving out minutes in that crowded field.
Detroit Pistons: Kelly Olynyk and Beef Stew
Olynyk’s best chance at minutes next season will be as the backup five, which is where he has played most of this season.
He’s definitely not a traditional center, but can hang with most backup bigs without getting killed defensively and his shooting potentially gives the Pistons an advantage.
The Pistons have only Isaiah Stewart at center now, with an option on Luka Garza for next season that I don’t think they will pick up.
That leaves just Beef Stew and Kelly Olynyk as the centers for next season, but will the Detroit Pistons be happy with that?
I could definitely see Detroit drafting another center, especially if they drop in the Draft or end up with a second lottery pick.
I could also see them signing a free-agent center. The obvious name is Deandre Ayton, but even if Detroit struck out with him, there are number of second and third tier guys to consider.
If the Pistons were to sign someone like Mitchell Robinson, where would that leave Olynyk? As the third center? Can the Detroit Pistons really afford to pay their third center $12 million a season?
All of these factors make it likely that Olynyk will be the odd man out next season and we could see him traded if the Pistons keep all of their current guys and add another big.