Detroit Pistons: Pros and Cons of trading for Duncan Robinson

The Detroit Pistons will enter this offseason with a load of cap space but might not find much to spend it on.

This free agent class isn’t particularly deep with “move the needle” talent, so if the Pistons strike out on the top guys, they might have to look for more creative ways to use their cap space.

That could include taking flyers on unfulfilled talent with guys like Marvin Bagley III, adding several lower-cost veteran upgrades or making a trade with a team that needs to clear cap space.

One such team I’ve heard floated around is the Miami Heat, who have a top-heavy payroll with Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson as well as a big extension for Tyler Herro looming.

The Heat may be looking to cut payroll to make space for Herro’s extension, and the unexpected leap by Max Strus may have made Duncan Robinson available.

It makes sense, as the Pistons could either send back a player like Kelly Olynyk, who would give the Heat some added cap space and whose final year is not guaranteed, or if the Heat really wanted to clear some room, they could take back a player like Hamidou Diallo or Frank Jackson, allowing the Pistons to absorb Robinson into their cap space.

The Heat would only be making this move to cut future money and stay out of the tax, so this could be another way for the Pistons to acquire talent using their cap space.

So what would a lineup with Robinson look like?

Detroit Pistons: Trading for Duncan Robinson

If the Pistons were to trade for Duncan Robinson, they could enter next season with this starting five:

• Cade Cunningham
• Duncan Robinson
• Saddiq Bey
• Jerami Grant/Draft pick
• Isaiah Stewart

The Pistons would still have their 2022 1st-round pick, so would still have options when it came to Jerami Grant. If they wanted to extend him, this is a pretty good team, but it’s definitely not a title contender and would be more financially encumbered.

If the Pistons did trade Grant, they’d still have money left over to make a few minor free agent additions to go along with Robinson.

The point is that it is not only possible, but makes sense from Miami’s perspective, but what about the Detroit Pistons? There would definitely be pros and cons to trading for Duncan Robinson.

Detroit Pistons: The pros of trading for Duncan Robinson

Trading for Robinson is definitely intriguing, as on paper he fills one of the Pistons’ biggest needs, which is perimeter shooting.

Robinson’s numbers were down slightly this season, but he still shot 37 percent from long range on eight attempts per game, which would definitely help Detroit.

Cade Cunningham needs more players around him that can draw defenders away from the paint and Robinson has proven that he is one of those guys. He’s already been on good playoff teams and played in NBA Finals, so he is battle tested, which the Pistons need.

But he’ still only 27-years-old, so the Pistons would be getting the rest of his prime years at a reasonable rate. Robinson will make $16, 18 and 19 million over the next three seasons and then has a partially guaranteed fourth season left on his contract.

Regardless of what the Pistons did with Grant, Robinson is a fit as a shooter and is on a decent contract that the Pistons could either absorb almost entirely or trade for Olynyk’s and somewhat offset.

Robinson is definitely in a tier below some of the top free agents, but he is also substantially cheaper and wouldn’t necessarily stop the Pistons from making other moves, especially if they were to trade Grant.

He fills a need, isn’t dramatically overpaid and gives the Pistons another player who has been to the playoffs and won.

Of course, you could also argue the other side.

Detroit Pistons: The cons of trading for Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson’s numbers have declined since his second year in the league, when he averaged 13.5 points per game on over 44 percent shooting from 3-point range.

The following season he was down to 13.1 points on 40 percent and this season 10.5 points on 37 percent from long range.

Robinson is playing similar minutes and getting a similar number of attempts but isn’t making as many. He’d still be the best shooter on the Pistons by far, and even his reputation as a sharpshooter would create some space, but is 10 points a game on 37 percent shooting really worth paying $16-19 million for?

The Heat found a guy in Strus who is putting up better numbers and making league minimum. Although he took a huge dip this season while battling injuries, Frank Jackson shot 40 percent last season while making a fraction of what Robinson makes.

My point is that the Pistons might be able to find a shooter for way less than what Robinson is making. Isaiah Livers is already under contract and may end up being that guy.

Robinson is also a sub-par defender (though he’s smart enough to play on a good defensive team), so you are paying second-tier money for a one-dimensional player, when you could find a similar guy on the cheap.

If the Pistons did trade for Robinson AND extend Grant, then they would be locked into a team that would certainly be better, but also less financially flexible.

They could find themselves in the same situation at the Heat, paying a role player big bucks when they could get his production from a guy on a rookie deal.

In the end, as tempting as it would be, I think the Pistons should pass on such a trade unless it is accompanied by other moves, as Duncan Robinson wouldn’t move the needle enough to justify his contract and might leave the Pistons regretting the decision down the road.