There has been a lot of criticism about how much the Detroit Pistons signed center Marvin Bagley III for in his new deal. But is he really getting overpaid, or is it just the real world of today’s NBA contracts.
Pistons general manager Troy Weaver has gotten plaudits for the way he has managed Detroit’s off-season – and he should.
The Pistons picked up the two most athletic players in the draft in guard Jaden Ivey and center Jalen Duren. They also received some draft picks thanks to trades with the Portland Trail Blazers and New York Knicks, plus two solid rotation pieces in guard Alec Burks and center Nerlens Noel.
Additionally, Detroit is set up nicely for the future, as they are likely to have more salary cap space than almost any other team in the league for the next couple of years.
However, nobody is perfect.
The one move Weaver has gotten blowback on, is the signing of restricted free agent center Marvin Bagley III to a three-year, $37.5 million contract. Unlike many other deals Weaver has negotiated, there is no option year. Bagley will get $12.5 million guaranteed for the next three years.
The reaction to the amount given Bagley by Weaver was met with … how should we put it … not exactly universal approval:
"Sports Unfolded: (Pistons) Biggest Loss: Bring Marvin Bagley III back for $37.5 million. ‘It’s hard to figure out why the market for Bagley was set so high.’ Bleacher Report: ‘ It speaks to the extent of Detroit’s overpay that even if Bagley had signed for the (Mid-Level Exception) elsewhere, it would have still ranked among the most head-scratching contracts of the offseason.’"
Pistons fans were not exactly jumping for joy either on social media.
The two main problems most critics had with the Bagley III deal, came down to amount and length.
- The Pistons were basically bidding against themselves. None of the NBA insiders had any another team interested in Bagley.
- With the drafting of 18-year-old Jalen Duren, the Pistons hope they have their center of the future. Detroit is in a different place in terms of centers than when Bagley came in February, why commit for three years?
Let’s look at the details, circumstances and how Bagley’s contract compares to others signed on the free agent market this season. It might be quite illuminating.
Understanding the Detroit Pistons position with Marvin Bagley III
GM Troy Weaver admitted he made a mistake not giving coach Dwane Casey an athletic big man at the start of the season. He corrected that error on February 10 when, as part of a four-team trade, Detroit got Bagley III from the Sacramento Kings.
As most NBA fans know, Bagley, a 6-foot-11, 235-pound center/forward, was the second overall pick in the draft in 2018. The Kings passed on Trae Young, Luka Doncic and Jaren Jackson Jr to select the Duke big man.
Bagley was decent for Sacramento, averaging 14.6 points and 7.5 his first three seasons. But the shadow of whom Sacramento passed on to take him, began to sour things between Bagley and the club. With none of the coaches or management who picked him still there, Bagley saw his role diminish this past season.
It was definitely time for Bagley to get a fresh start, and Detroit got him for very little (couple of low second-round picks, plus Trey Lyles and Josh Jackson), as the Kings obviously were looking to move on.
Bagley immediately established a chemistry with Cade Cunningham. He becoming a lob threat gave the Pistons an offensive option they had not had previously. Bagley went back up to his normal numbers with Detroit, 14.6 points and 6.8 rebounds, and with a career-best 55-percent shooting percentage.
After the season, Bagley expressed his desire to return to the Pistons:
On NBA TV, Marvin Bagley III just said it was "easy" for him to re-sign with the Pistons. "I felt like this was the best situation for me. I love the city, I love the fans."
— Offseason O (@omarisankofa) July 13, 2022
Cap hold meant Pistons had to move fast on Bagley
One quirk in Bagley’s contract made Detroit have to prioritize signing Bagley.
Although Detroit only had to offer him a $7.2 million qualifying offer, because he had been a No. 2 overall pick in the draft, his cap hold was a massive $28 million.
Until the Pistons signed Bagley to a new contract, or renounced his rights (which they did not want to do), he counted as $28 million on their books. They really could not make any moves with Bagley’s cap hold sucking up most of their salary cap space.
With the other NBA teams knowing of Detroit’s interest in bringing back Bagley, and the fact the Pistons had much more cap space than almost any other team, it is not really surprising Bagley did not get much outside interest.
The cash-flush Pistons could match any offer since he was a restricted free agent, so why bother?
With free agency starting July 1, general manager Troy Weaver was facing a a bit of a deadline. He needed to get Bagley’s contract done to get that cap hold removed. The signing was made public June 30.
With Bagley in the bag, Weaver was then free to do the wheeling and dealing he is known for.
So was Bagley really that outrageously overpaid? Now that most of the free agent season is complete, let look at how his contract ranks.
How does Marvin Bagley III contract rank in the 2022 free agent class?
On the current Pistons roster, Marvin Bagley III is the second-highest paid player on the team, just slightly behind Kelly Olynyk. While Olynyk is a veteran who has helped teams in the past make the NBA finals, Bagley has never been in a playoff game.
So should these two be paid virtually the same? I guess one has to see how the season plays out, as they are very different players, even though they play the same position.
According to Spotrac, Bagley received the 11th-highest-paying contract (on a per year basis) out of 81 players who have signed as free agents. Now, 11th out of 81 sure sounds pretty high, but free agency is a very uneven process.
Franchise type players like Bradley Beal, Zach Levine and James Harden got triple to four times as much as Bagley.
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While the big names contracts get most of the attention, a lot of the signings are low-cost minimum or cap exception deals. In layman’s terms, most free agents are simply finding a job for next year.
Comparing Bagley with similar free agent salaries
The player signed as a free agent with the next highest salary is guard Tyus Jones, who inked for two years with the Memphis Grizzlies for an average of $14.5 million. That is two million dollars a year more than Bagley. This is almost double what Jones was paid for 2021-22.
Jones is a veteran six-foot point guard whose job in his career has been mainly to provide a spark off the bench. Being the backup to Ja Morant in Memphis last year, he had his best offensive season, scoring 8.7 points a game. He played very well when Morant missed time due to injury.
Jones, 26, has a career average of 6.2 points and 3.7 assists, not the kind of stats typical for the 10th highest free agent signing. But the Grizzlies had the second best record in the Western Conference last year, and took the Warriors to six games in the semifinals.
Jones was a player they wanted back, and now they have him.
The player who was signed for just a little less than Bagley was Chris Boucher of the Toronto Raptors. He inked a three-year, $35.25 million dollar deal, which is just $1.75 million less than Bagley.
Boucher is 29-years-old (six years older than Bagley) and had a far different path to the NBA then blue-chip Bagley.
Undrafted coming out of Oregon, Boucher worked his way up from the Raptors G-League team to become a valuable reserve for Toronto.
He was a deep sub on Toronto’s 2019 NBA championship team but Boucher has averaged 11.5 points the past two seasons. With his athleticism, he has also been a rim protector. However, at 6-foot-9 and 200 pounds, Boucher is a definite tweener in positions.
Thanks to his development, Boucher has become a valuable reserve for Toronto. Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri is considered one of the best GMs in the league, and he was willing to pay a bench player almost as much as Bagley received.
The verdict on Marvin Bagley III being overpaid or not
Detroit fans have been burned so often with players getting contracts way above what they actually contribute (Josh Smith, Charlie Villanueva, too many others), it is logical they are skeptical about Bagley’s deal.
Bagley can score and rebound and gives Detroit needed athleticism in the post. However, he has not shown, so far, to be a good passer or defender. He is just 23-years-old, so he still has time to work on those deficiencies.
When given a decent amount of playing time, Bagley has consistently put up 14 points and seven rebounds a game. Those are pretty good numbers.
Importantly, Bagley wants to be in Detroit and is enthusiastic about being part of the future. Not all Pistons players in the past have felt that way.
Looking at the other deals in this free agent period, Bagley’s contract does not look horrible. If you were told, without knowing the numbers, that Bagley would get about as much as Tyus Jones and Chris Boucher, would you have a problem with that?
The fact Bagley and his representatives did not try to play this out, knowing the Pistons wanted a deal quickly, also must be put in his favor.
Verdict: Compared to what others are getting in free agency, Bagley is Not Overpaid.
The good news is, even if Bagley does not play well and becomes the bust the Kings believed him to be, the Pistons have so much cap space available the next couple of years, his salary will not affect their plans. And if Bagley does realize the potential he was thought to have when drafted, Weaver will once again be lauded for his insight.