The Detroit Pistons will enter the 2022-23 season with four players who expect to get minutes at center, and there is a good chance that they all have a role.
After the trade for Bojan Bogdanovic, the logjam at center was cleared a little, as Detroit now has two bigs who can play either center or power forward and two rim protectors who will play exclusively at center.
This will give Dwane Casey plenty of options, which is going to make his job tough as he tries to figure out how all of these pieces fit best together on the court.
There is a very real scenario in which all four of them play significant minutes, as they all offer different skills the Pistons need.
From a team and development standpoint, it would be best if all four of these bigs played some kind of role next season, but there is also a best-case/worst-case scenario for each guy individually.
Detroit Pistons: Best-case/worst-case scenario for each center
Nerlens Noel
Best-case scenario
At Pistons’ media day, Noel talked about how he wanted to be the defensive anchor for the Pistons, a guy who is in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year and who carries on the legacy of Ben Wallace in Detroit.
Any of those things happening would be the best-case scenario for Noel, who will be limited in camp but hopefully be 100 percent by the start of the regular season. He has shown that he can be an elite shot blocker and defender, but won’t likely get nearly enough minutes for serious consideration for DPOY. For me, the best case is that he plays 20-25 minutes per night and blocks over two shots per game and plays so well that Detroit doesn’t want to trade him at the deadline.
Detroit has a team option on Noel for the 2023-24 season and it would be great if he played well enough for them to want to pick it up because he was a key piece in a big defensive improvement.
Worst-case scenario
Noel only played in 25 games last season, so the worst-case scenario is a repeat of that. Detroit would love Noel to be a mentor to their young bigs and to help improve their overall defense, but he can’t do that if he’s not on the floor. The fact that he is already limited isn’t great, so his injury status will be something to keep an eye on throughout the season.
He’s a guy who Detroit could flip for assets at the deadline if he is healthy and playing well, but if not, they could lose him for nothing or be compelled to pick up his option for the 2023-24 season to try and get some type of return.
Detroit Pistons: Best-case/worst-case scenario for each center
Marvin Bagley III
Best-case scenario
For me, the best-case scenario is that MBIII comes off the bench as the backup center and dominates on both ends. We know he can score, especially around the hoop, so feeding him the rock as the primary scoring option in the second unit would be a great way to take advantage of that.
Hopefully Bagley III will be happy thriving in this role, will have some monster games for Detroit off the bench and be in the running for 6th Man of the Year after averaging 16 points and 8 rebounds for the season.
Worst-case scenario
The worst-case scenario is pretty much what we saw in Sacramento, which is MBIII not utilized properly, not getting enough minutes or touches and him falling out with the coaches and team.
I don’t think that is going to happen with Dwane Casey, but coach Casey did mention that he planned on using MBIII as a power forward at times and that he needs to increase his range.
Ugh.
As I wrote about in my “questions for the starters” piece (this was before the Bojan trade), Bagley III has been abysmal outside of nine feet from the hoop, so hearing coach Casey say he needs to take more of these shots does not inspire confidence. I think the worst-case scenario is that Detroit tries to force him into this role so that he can play with Noel or Duren, and that Bagley III ends up launching a bunch of threes this season, doesn’t make them, gets benched and ends up angry again.
Detroit Pistons: Best-case/worst-case scenario for each center
Jalen Duren
Best-case scenario
Jalen Duren will be the youngest player in the NBA next season, so the best-case scenario for him is that he is in the rotation and playing a significant role by the end of the season.
Duren already has some skills that will play in the NBA right now, particularly his ability to catch a lob and block shots, but he is a bad rebounder and hasn’t shown he can do much else on offense other than dunk.
With Noel possibly out to start the season, the door is open for Duren to get minutes right away, so hopefully he can play within himself, reduce mistakes and show that he deserves to be in the rotation all season.
Depending on how things turn out with Isaiah Stewart, the best-case scenario is that Duren is the starting center by the end of the season and he and Beef Stew look like one of the best defensive frontcourts in the NBA.
Worst-case scenario
The worst-case scenario is that Duren isn’t ready to play in the NBA, falters early on and has to be sent to the G-League for some fine tuning. Considering his age, it wouldn’t be a disaster for him to go to the G-League where he can be the starter and get huge minutes.
So the worst-case scenario is really him going to the G-League and not dominating so that Detroit doesn’t even feel comfortable giving him garage time minutes late in the season. I can’t really see this happening, as Duren showed enough in Summer League to make most people think he can at least be a third center if not more right away.
Detroit Pistons: Best-case/worst-case scenario for each center
Isaiah Stewart
Best-case scenario
Beef Stew is the presumptive starter at center, but the Pistons may need him to play some at power forward as well. The best-case scenario is that he shows some improvement on offense and becomes a legit candidate for the All-Defensive team after playing elite defense at two positions.
Stewart has already shown he can be a strong and versatile defender, so the improvements really have to come on the offensive end. Best-case is that he starts knocking down a couple of 3-point shots per game to force defensives stay honest when guarding him, but it would also be nice to see him improve as a roll man on the pick-and-roll to maximize Cade Cunningham’s passing ability.
Stewart doesn’t have to become Karl-Anthony Towns overnight offensively, but if he can hit enough shots to keep defenses from sagging and improve at catching the ball in traffic and finishing, that would be enough.
Worst-case scenario
The worst-case scenario is that Detroit tries to force Stewart into an offensive role that doesn’t suit him and that he shoots a bunch of 3-pointers but only makes 30 percent of them.
The Pistons were one of the most inefficient teams in the NBA last season, so the last thing they need is another shot chucker who can’t make them. It would be better for Stewart to not shoot at all then it would be for him to shoot a lot but inefficiently.
I think it’s almost a given that Stewart will continue to improve defensively, so the worst-case scenario is that he doesn’t improve on offense and throws the entire rotation out of whack. Detroit needs his defense, but you can’t play four on five on offense in the modern NBA, so he has to be able to do something. Worst-case scenario is that he can’t and it really stalls the Detroit offense and forces him to the bench, where he is an even worse fit with the second unit.