With the NBA trade deadline less than a month away, the Detroit Pistons have a big decision to make about Bojan Bogdanovic.
The veteran sharpshooter has been great offensively for the Pistons, and though his defense leaves plenty to be desired, you can live with it when a guy scores 20+ a night on fantastic shooting splits.
But the 33-year-old’s value is never going to be higher, and the Pistons are still a long way from contending, so it does make some sense to move him and try to reap as many assets as possible.
Detroit has been coy about their intentions and have repeatedly said they’d rather keep Bogdanovic in an effort to actually compete next season, which also makes sense, as this team needs to turn the corner soon and trading away their best veteran player isn’t the way to do it.
I can see both sides of this debate, and it’s hard to weigh in without knowing what exactly they could get in a trade for Bogdanovic and whether those assets plus whatever free agents they could grab would put the Pistons in a better position to win next season or shortly thereafter.
Detroit Pistons: The value of a late first-round pick
There have been myriad teams connected to Bojan Bogdanovic in trade rumors this season, and most of them (other than the delusional Lakers) are considered title contenders, and a guy like Bojan could be the player who puts them over the top.
The Pistons have held their ground and said they will accept nothing less than a young player and an unprotected first-round pick. Since most of the teams connected to Bojan are good, their picks will likely come later in the first round, so the question is whether a late first-round pick is really worth it to give up one the NBA’s most proven scorers.
We took a look at all of the players drafted at 20 or above over a block of five years to see the chances the Detroit Pistons could land at least a decent role player or star in the later first round.
Detroit Pistons: Stars and role players from 2017-2021
For the purposes of this, I looked at every player taken with the 20th pick or higher from 2017-2021, as the book is still out on the most recent draft. I picked out guys who are at least quality role players, but there were also a few stars. This will give you an idea of the chances the Pistons have to find a good player in that range.
2017
Stars: Jarret Allen #22, OG Anunoby #23
Role Players: Kyle Kuzma #27, Josh Hart #30, Dillons Brooks #45
2018
Stars: Anfernee Simons #24, Jalen Brunson #33
Role Players: Grayson Allen #21, Aaron Holiday #23, Robert Williams III #24, Devonte’ Graham #34, Mitchell Robinson #36, Gary Trent Jr. #37, Bruce Brown #42
2019
Stars: Jordan Poole #28, Keldon Johnson #29
Role Players: Matisse Thybulle #20, Brandon Clarke #21, Grant Williams #22, Kevin Porter Jr. #30, Nic Claxton #31, Bol Bol #44, Talen Horton-Tucker #46
2020
Stars: Tyrese Maxey #21, Desmond Bane #30
Role Players: Precious Achiuwa #20, Immanuel Quickley #25, Payton Pritchard #26, Jaden McDaniels #28, Trey Jones #41
2021
Stars: Bones Hyland #26
Role Players: Herb Jones #35, Ayo Dosunmu #38, Isaiah Livers #42
This is a relatively small sample size but it does show that it is possible to find quality role players and even stars in the later first round and beyond.
Detroit Pistons: Is a late first-rounder worth it?
Using this five year block as a sample, it is clear that it is possible to find a star later in the first round. There have been just under two per year on average, so those guys are almost always there, you just have to find them.
I’d say the best player of that group is probably OG Anunoby, though I could be talked into several others.
It’s obviously much easier to find a quality role player at this stage in the draft, and in this sample size there were five per year on average.
It’s probably too early to tell if any of these guys will exceed the career and current production of Bojan Bogdanovic, but there are certainly players who are in the mix and could get there if they aren’t already.
So the answer to the question of whether a late first-round pick is worth it is a very unsatisfying “it depends.”
Make the right pick and you can find a star later in the first round or even in the second, make the wrong one, and you have essentially given up a very good player for nothing.
Even though the possibility of landing a star or even a quality role player is there, the odds are still against it once you get past the 19th pick, so there is some amount of risk when trading a good player if a late first rounder is the centerpiece of the deal.