The Detroit Pistons are near the bottom of the NBA standings again this season, but according to Bojan Bogdanovic, they don’t plan to be there long.
According to a recent report, Bojan Bogdanovic said the team not only gave him assurances that he is part of their future plans, but that those plans include a big leap next season.
Here is what Bojan had to say:
"“Having conversations with the club, Troy (Weaver), and the owners, they assured me that we’re going to be great next year,” Bogdanovic told HoopsHype. “We have a lot of cap space to sign great players. We’re going to have a high pick again, so that’s going to help us a lot. We have a great young group of guys. When Cade (Cunningham)went down, that kind of hurt us big time. We were thinking that maybe we’d be fighting for the play-in tournament, but when he went down, he was our main guy. All of our offensive strategies were connected to him.”"
There was a whole lot to unpack in this quote, but the part that really stuck out to me was the notion that the Detroit Pistons are “going to be great next year.”
Of course, this could have just been a paraphrase, a mistranslation or simple hyperbole. I am not pedantic enough to think those were the exact words the team said to Bogdanovic, nor that they necessarily meant them that way even if they were. Great can mean a lot of things in this context.
Bogdanovic has consistently been the subject of trade rumors, so this could also just be a way of assuring the soon to be 34-year-old that the team won’t be this bad forever and has plans to improve.
So let’s take a look at the rest of the quote, which somewhat outlines the plan for how the Detroit Pistons could “be great next year.”
Detroit Pistons: Lottery odds
Part of the plan is obviously to “get a high pick again,” as the Pistons stink and are likely to end up near the top of the draft.
Let’s hope there is far more to the plan than that, as relying on the NBA Draft to bail you out is like buying lottery tickets to pay your mortgage.
Currently, the Detroit Pistons have the second-worst record in the NBA, just percentage points behind Houston, who has one fewer win and loss.
This would give the Pistons maximum odds to get the #1 pick, but those odds are still just a meager 14 percent, so there is an 86 percent chance Victor Wembanyama is not coming to the Motor City, hardly inspiring.
Even when you factor in the odds for the second pick, we are still at just 27.4 percent, so it’s a long shot under the best circumstances. With the second-worst record, the Pistons could drop all the way to the 6th pick, though their highest odds for any one pick would be the 5th.
Considering most think there are two potential superstars at the top and then a lot of question marks, choosing 5th or 6th would be fairly devastating to the plan. Of course the Pistons could still find a great player there, but the odds of that dip and it becomes more of a crapshoot.
Even if the player they choose turns out to be great, it likely won’t happen next season, as even Scoot Henderson is far from NBA ready. There is only one player in this draft who is guaranteed to make a big impact next season, and the Detroit Pistons have a 14 percent chance of getting him.
Detroit Pistons: The young core
One thing that Bojan Bogdanovic said is certain, and that’s the fact that they really missed Cade Cunningham this season. He’s the engine that makes the offense go, their best player, and everyone else had to slide into different roles when he went out with injury.
Getting him back will be a big boost, and the idea that he could be playing on a leg that is 100 percent for the first time since high school should have fans excited.
But what about the rest of this “great group of young guys?” I think most would agree that the Detroit Pistons have two potential stars in Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren. Both have flashed signs of it this season and are likely to make the All-Rookie team.
Beyond that you have a lot of question marks. Saddiq Bey has regressed, continues to be inconsistent and it’s become clear that he can’t defend small forwards full time. His shooting has improved of late, and hopefully the return of Cunningham will push him back to more of a catch-and-shoot role as a stretch four who shoots a high volume and percentage from long range.
Killian Hayes has been two steps forward one step back this season, as he has improved, but his numbers off the bench are less than encouraging and that’s the role he’s likely to play in the future.
Isaiah Stewart showed signs of being a quality stretch four himself, but has been moved around in the rotation, most recently playing as the center off the bench, which has been less than ideal.
Not only are these three not sure things, they are all extension eligible in the offseason, so the Detroit Pistons will have to decide who to pay, for how long and how much. Make the wrong choice here and it could set the franchise back.
All three have the chance to be quality role players, so let’s hope the Pistons pay them accordingly, as bad contracts could hamper their vision of greatness.
The Detroit Pistons’ cap space and free agency
Another truth is that the Detroit Pistons will have cap space to make an impact free agent addition this offseason. They could have the most in the NBA again depending on how the trade deadline shakes out.
The problem is that there isn’t a lot for them to spend it on, as the free agency class is much thinner after several potential targets signed extensions last offseason. You have guys like Kyle Kuzma, though he could re-up with Washington. You have former Piston Jerami Grant, but he is reportedly looking for a max deal that would potentially pay him $46 million when he is 33-years-old.
There are guys like Dillon Brooks, but he too could end up being overpaid depending on the market. From there you have role players like Josh Hart (who I would love) among others, but there isn’t a clear target the Pistons should be pursuing.
Detroit is more than one player away from “being great” next season, so may need some trades on top of free agency to get the kind of roster overhaul they need. One thing is for certain, they aren’t going to get there with more Kevin Knox, Marvin Bagley III, Cory Joseph, Nerlens Noel or Rodney McGruder-type signings, they need guys who can play and stay on the court.
In other words, a whole lot is going to have to go right for the Detroit Pistons to be great next season, which is why most fans would settle for “not horrible” and would be ecstatic by “pretty good.”
Troy Weaver has his work cut out for him, and we are all cheering for him to get it done, but he might want to dial back the talk of greatness for now.