The Detroit Pistons didn’t make the splashy moves in free agency that some fans were hoping for this offseason.
When making trades for Joe Harris and Monte Morris, which were pragmatic (albeit underwhelming), the Pistons essentially doubled down on their young core.
So they are only going to go as far as players like Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson take them.
There are several futures bets on the Pistons that are worth a chance, but I’ve also come up with some individual over/unders that will be key statistical goals for next season.
So would you take the over or the under?
Over or under? Statistical goals for the Detroit Pistons
Bojan Bogdanovic: Over or under 52 games played for the Detroit Pistons next season
Bojan Bogdanovic has been mentioned in a hundred trade rumors going back to last season and so far nothing has materialized. The Pistons shouldn’t budge on their asking price, as Bogdanovic is more valuable than salary filler and a couple of second-round picks. What this question is really asking is whether you think Bogdanovic will be traded before next year’s trade deadline. It will be a good measure of how the season is going. If Detroit is looking to move Bogdanovic it’s probably not a good sign, though it could just mean that Ausar Thompson is too good to come off the bench.
Marvin Bagley III: Over or under 2.5 attempts per game from 3-point range
It appears that the Pistons are going to try to pigeonhole one of James Wiseman or Marvin Bagley III into a backup power forward role next season, hoping that one of them can hit enough corner 3-point shots to make the spacing work alongside another big. Count me as very skeptical.
MBIII has never taken more than 2.5 attempts per game from 3-point range, in his third season in the league when he hit 34 percent of them. Detroit would probably live with those numbers, though the idea of watching MBIII jack up 3-point shots makes me more than a little nervous.
Over or under? Statistical goals for the Detroit Pistons
James Wiseman: Over or under 1.5 blocks per game
James Wiseman has never even averaged a block per game in his short career, which is not great considering his size and athleticism. For him to be a quality backup center in the league, he has to get better on defense, which includes improving his woeful awareness and rim protection. If Wiseman can block closer to two shots per game in his 25 minutes, grab rebounds on both ends and run the floor, he can have a long career in the NBA. If he’s just a black hole who tries to post up all of the time, is constantly lost on defense and protects the rim like a guy who is 5-foot-9, then he could be sent packing before next year’s trade deadline.
Jalen Duren: Over or under 2 assists per game
Of all the big men the Detroit Pistons have, Jalen Duren should benefit the most from Monty Williams’ style of offense.
The offense is going to run through Duren on the high post at times, and he has already shown the ability to hit cutters with nifty passes out of dribble hand off situations and the pick and roll. Given that Williams’ offense promotes ball and player movement, Duren should get more opportunities to set up teammates and add nuance to his offensive game in ways other than jacking up jumpers. Duren averaged 1.1 assists per game this past season and should be able to double that number in a more dynamic offense that takes advantage of what he does well.
Over or under? Statistical goals for the Detroit Pistons
Isaiah Livers: Over or under 60 games played
Isaiah Livers’ biggest challenge so far has been staying on the floor, and if he can do that, he can be the backup 3-and-D wing player that the Detroit Pistons need. But considering he’s played just 71 games in two seasons, count that as a big “if.” Detroit doesn’t have much depth at forward, so Livers will get his chances, but first he’ll have to stay healthy.
Isaiah Stewart: Over or under 38 percent from 3-point range
Wiseman and MBIII aren’t the only experiments at power forward, as this will be the season that Isaiah Stewart makes the full time leap to the four. Stewart showed flashes of being a competent floor spacer early on last season, but fell off a cliff after his injury, finishing just 32 percent from 3-point range.
The extension the Pistons gave Stewart is a good indication that he’ll be in the starting lineup with Duren, and considering that neither Cade Cunningham nor Jaden Ivey have been great 3-point shooters yet, Detroit will need Stewart to be able to hit catch-and-shoot 3’s and attack close outs when they come, otherwise the spacing is going to be problematic.
Over or under? Statistical goals for the Detroit Pistons
Jaden Ivey: Over or under 2.5 turnovers per game
Jaden Ivey averaged 3.2 turnovers per game last season, which you would expect from a rookie guard that was put into a larger role when Cade Cunningham went down with injury. Ivey’s decision making got better as the season went on and he started learning how to harness his speed and when to attack. His turnovers going way down would be a good sign that he is in a more comfortable role off the ball with a lower usage rate than last season. It would also be a good sign that he’s making quality decisions when he does attack.
Killian Hayes: Over or under 50% effective field goal percentage
It’s no secret that Killian Hayes has been one of the worst shooters in the NBA, with an effective field goal percentage of just 42 percent last season, well below league average. It’s also no secret that Killian will have a lot more competition for minutes with Monte Morris and Marcus Sasser on board, so if he doesn’t start to hit shots, he’s not going to have as long a leash as the past. The league average for effective field goal percentage is 56 and the Denver Nuggets were 57 percent as a team last season. Let’s be real, 50 percent is still mediocre, but it would be a career year shooting for Killian and a sign that he is on the right path.
Over or under? Statistical goals for the Detroit Pistons
Ausar Thompson: Over or under 2 steals per game
We haven’t seen much of Ausar Thompson so far, but what we have seen gives fans reason to believe he’s going to be a disruptive defender. He averaged 2.4 steals in OTE and just under that in Summer League, so Ausar is going to make an impact with his defense right away. He has the physical tools to go along with very good court awareness that should allow him to get into a lot of passing lanes next season. Could he eventually go down as one of the Pistons’ leaders in steals? Starting his career with two swipes per game would be a great start.
Cade Cunningham: Over or under the 50/40/90 club
The 50/40/90 club is the most exclusive shooting group and few in league history have actually achieved it. I don’t expect Cade Cunningham to do this in his first season back from injury, but these numbers will be good measures. Can he hit 50 percent from the field? We know Cade is deadly from mid-range, but he’ll have to be much better around the rim and from the 3-point line to get there, as he has topped out at 41 percent so far. I do think having two healthy legs will help Cunningham get closer to 40 percent from 3-point range next season, so expect his 30 percent career average to go way up. He’s already at 84 percent from the line, a number the Pistons will definitely live with, especially if he gets there more often. The Detroit Pistons need Cade Cunningham to play like an MVP for them to be contenders, and these numbers will be a good indication of how close he is to that goal.