There is no other way to say this: Killian Hayes has been a disappointment for the Detroit Pistons so far.
Fair or not, there are high expectations when you are a top-10 pick and Killian Hayes not met them, especially compared with other point guards (Tyrese Haliburton, Cole Anthony) who were taken after him in the draft.
If you had to do the 2020 NBA Draft again, Killian Hayes may not even be a first-round pick.
He’s not a lock for the Pistons’ rotation for the first time in his short career, and considering his expiring contract, it’s possible Hayes won’t be on the Detroit Pistons’ roster at all before the season is over.
But Hayes just turned 22 years old, so it is still too soon to know whether he will eventually make an impact in the NBA. Luckily, the list of point guards who were late bloomers is a long one and three in particular show that there is hope yet for Killian Hayes.
Detroit Pistons: 3 late bloomers who should give hope to Killian Hayes
Kyle Lowry
Killian Hayes averaged 10.3 points, 6.2 assists and 2.9 rebounds in this third season, but did it on terrible shooting splits of 37 percent from the field and an abysmal 28 percent from long range. He did show flashes of very good defense and playmaking, but it’s clear he has to shoot better to be in the rotation of a good NBA team.
Kyle Lowry is a six-time All-Star and NBA Champion, but he didn’t start out that way. He averaged just 7.6 points, 3.6 assists and 2.5 rebounds in his third season in the league when he was a year older than Killian. His shooting wasn’t quite as bad as Killian’s from the field (43.5%) but he was even worse from 3-point range and ended up being traded from Memphis to Houston.
It wasn’t until his 5th season that we started to see the Lowry who was one of the best two-way guards in the league, and he was 28 years old before he made his first All-Star team for Toronto, which was his third team at that point.
Will Hayes have similar success on a team other than the Detroit Pistons?
Detroit Pistons: 3 late bloomers who should give hope to Killian Hayes
Ricky Rubio
Ricky Rubio is another point guard who entered the league with big-time playmaking ability and a questionable jumper. Like Killian, he played professionally overseas before joining the NBA as a top-10 pick.
Rubio has never really evolved into a great shooter from long range, but he is an elite passer, a very good defender and has intangibles of a high basketball IQ and leadership that have helped him overcome his lack of a shot.
Rubio shot 36 percent from the field and just 29 percent from long range when he was 22 years old while putting up similar points (10.7) and assists (7.2) as Killian Hayes did last season at age 21.
Rubio came in with a ton of hype and while he may not have completely fulfilled that, he has evolved into a great role player who was key to the current resurgence in Cleveland as well as the one the Suns enjoyed in the first season under Monty Williams.
Rubio may offer the most realistic path for Killian Hayes, as he went from a disappointing high draft pick (5) to a valuable role player on good teams.
Does Hayes have the intangibles to become this kind of player? The jury is still out.
Detroit Pistons: 3 late bloomers who should give hope to Killian Hayes
Chauncey Billups
Pistons fans are well-aware of Chauncey Billups’ work, as he was a 3-time All-Star with Detroit and the leader of the Goin’ to Work squad that won a title.
But Mr. Big Shot paid his dues before he started collecting All-Star appearances, Finals MVP awards and a championship ring.
After showing promise as a rookie, Billups, who was the 3rd pick in the NBA Draft, had a hard time finding his footing in the league after being traded twice before he was 25 years old.
Billups shot under 40 percent from the field in his first three seasons, though he was always a better 3-point shooter than Hayes. But Chauncey didn’t average even five assists per game until he was 25 years old and didn’t make his first All-Star team until he was 29.
Billups eventually morphed into a great two-way point guard and 3-point shooter, but it would have been easy for the league to give up on him before we really got to see what he had.
These would all represent best-case scenarios for Killian Hayes on the Detroit Pistons, but point guard is the most difficult position to learn and a lot of them really aren’t who they are going to be until at least age 25.
It may not happen for Hayes, and if it does, it could be for a different team, but you can’t write off a 22-year-old point guard just because his shot isn’t there yet.