Every season there are teams in the NBA that defy expectations for better or worse and the Detroit Pistons hope to be one of them next year.
Most national outlets have picked Detroit to improve, but not by much, which is to be expected after they had a lackluster offseason with no headline-grabbing additions.
Of course, you have Homers like me whose win predictions are on the optimistic side, but those might represent best-case scenarios.
Predicting anything at this point in the offseason is a fool’s gambit, but I do like a couple of teams to outperform their expectations and one to fall short of them.
Detroit Pistons: 3 teams that could defy expectations next season
Indiana Pacers heading up
Reasons they will defy expectations: Undervalued talent, continuity and some sneaky-good offseason additions
In their win predictions for the Eastern Conference, ESPN (SUBSCRIPTION) had the Indiana Pacers winning 38 games, which would only be a three-game improvement from last season.
But they have a nice mixture of young talent and veterans, with budding superstar Tyrese Haliburton leading the way. I think he’s going to have a big season and make the All-Star team again. Bennedict Mathurin should be more efficient in year two and rookie Jarace Walker is the type of player who can make an immediate impact defensively as long as he is fully healthy.
Haliburton, Mathurin, Buddy Hield and Myles Turner all played together last season, so there will be some continuity there and they’ve made additions to shore up their bench depth.
They signed Bruce Brown, an underrated role player who will be a glue guy for the Pacers and improve their overall defense. Obi Toppin could make an impact in a bigger role, and along with Andrew Nembhard, TJ McConnell and Jalen Smith give the Pacers a pretty good second unit for Rick Carlisle to mix and match with his starters.
Indiana doesn’t have the most exciting names on their roster, but they have a solid team that should be able to shoot the 3-ball and protect the rim, so I like them to make the playoffs next season.
Detroit Pistons: 3 teams that could defy expectations next season
The Philadelphia 76ers could disappoint
Reasons they will defy expectations: The James Harden drama and an aging roster
The Philadelphia 76ers were picked to win 47 games and compete for the Eastern Conference again next season. This would be seven fewer wins than last season, when they finished 3rd in the East behind an MVP season from Joel Embiid.
Philly brought in coach Nick Nurse, who is tasked with getting them over the hump, and he inherited a aging roster with a lot of drama.
James Harden has called out the franchise publically several times and has said he won’t play for a Daryl Morey team, drama that has dominated their offseason and will continue to well into training camp if they can’t find a suitable trade partner.
They could head into next season with an unhappy star or potentially with a bunch of new players if they trade him. Either way, how is that going to affect Joel Embiid? Will he be the next star to demand an exit from Philly? Don’t rule it out, especially with the Knicks sniffing around after spending the last few seasons gathering assets to make such a trade.
Their roster isn’t getting any younger with James Harden (34), Tobias Harris (31), PJ Tucker (38) and Patrick Beverley (35) all on the wrong side of 30.
Philly is a Harden trade and an Embiid injury away from being a lottery team, so the spectrum of what they could be next season is wide. If things go right and Harden gets on board or is traded for some win-now players, Philly could once again contend for the East, but if the Harden Saga hangs over them, things could go wrong quickly, especially if they get hit with the injury bug.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Philly ended up winning the East next season or bombing out of the playoffs altogether, so it’s likely they defy expectations one way or the other.
Detroit Pistons: 3 teams that could defy expectations next season
The Detroit Pistons could surprise some people
Reasons they will defy expectations: Cade Cunningham is going to be a star, the Monty Williams’ effect and some low-key offseason additions that will help
You won’t find too many people outside of the Detroit faithful who think the Pistons are going to contend for anything next season but another lottery pick and they might be right. Detroit didn’t make a splashy addition, and as a team that won 17 games last season, they need to improve pretty much everywhere.
Enter Cade Cunningham.
Cunningham has gotten plenty of positive press for his play on the select team and his offseason health, but we could see him turn into a star next season. Without him, the young Pistons struggled on both ends last season, as he is the nucleus of the team and when you remove Cade, it’s just a bunch of particles floating around.
Cade is going to make life easier for everyone else and new head coach Monty Williams not only has a record of improving terrible teams, but of getting the most out of dynamic guards, so Cunningham is in great hands.
He’ll have a better offensive system and more weapons around him in Bojan Bogdanovic, Monte Morris, Alec Burks and Joe Harris, who will allow Detroit to play lineups that will unlock Cade’s strengths.
Ausar Thompson is going to make an immediate impact on defense and Detroit finally has a roster that has the right mixture of young and veteran talent. They still have the roster space and ammo to make another trade, so if they perform well early on, more reinforcements could be coming.
It’s not hard to defy expectations when people don’t have any, and that’s where we are with the Detroit Pistons, who could double their win total and still not make the play-in. But don’t be surprised if some things fall into place with Cade Cunningham leading the way and the Pistons end up closer to the play-in than people might think.