The Detroit Pistons are worse than they were last season, which is not a great sign when you are in year four of your rebuild.
The most optimistic fans keep telling me (repeatedly) that I am just impatient and that everything will fall into place 3-4 years from now when all of their current players are 25 and have reached their potential. So if you are into eight-year rebuilds that include historic losing streaks, good news! The Pistons are right on pace.
But for those of us who would like to see this team win at some point before society collapses, the Pistons need to do more than just add another Joe Harris veteran and hope the young players magically get much better over the next five months.
The Pistons need to shake things up, even if that means trading one of the vaunted "Core Four" and losing the youth shield they've been using to protect the front office from any criticism.
But is there a star out there? The Detroit Pistons have plenty of places to look, but getting what they need won't be easy even if they try, and there is no guarantee they will.
The Detroit Pistons in free agency
If the Pistons want to just add a few role players and run it back with the cast they have, then free agency is their best bet.
There aren't any stars, so even if the Pistons were to land several of the top guys, it would likely be via overpay and not enough to matter. Is adding 32-year-old Tobias Harris (who will be eating up more of the cap space than Cade Cunningham) really going to make that big of a difference? And what happens the following season when Ivey and Duren get their extensions and you have a ton of money locked into four guys who just led a team that won 25 wins?
Would adding role players like Grayson Allen and Andre Drummond move the needle?
The Pistons haven't signed a meaningful free agent in years and going this route isn't likely to yield the type of change they need to be competitive in the near future.
But they do have other options.
The unhappy star
For the last several seasons, the Detroit Pistons have had their cap space in hand, ready to pounce on the first unhappy star who is willing to come to Detroit, which is a terrible strategy for a couple of reasons.
The first is that there is no guarantee this even happens. Yes, there are usually at least 1-2 players who want out of their current situation but there is no certainty here and the Pistons are relying on hope and luck, a strategy that has gotten them nowhere.
The second is that most stars demand trades to flee for greener pastures, not wastelands with no signs of life where the earth has been salted. Detroit is not currently a better situation than most of the teams in the NBA, so why would an unhappy star want to leave for a worse spot?
I doubt I'll see the day when an unhappy star requests a trade and puts the Pistons on his list of preferred destinations.
So Detroit can't rely on this unless this player happens to play for a team starting a rebuild and there are a couple of possible options.
Stars on a team that decides to rebuild
-Brooklyn Nets
-Atlanta Hawks
-Chicago Bulls
-Portland Trail Blazers
-Memphis Grizzlies
-Utah Jazz
There are at least six teams who may decide to rebuild and have players the Pistons could use. With some combination of their first-round pick and a young player or two, the Pistons' best bet to land a star is likely to trade for one.
The two at the top of the list would be Mikal Bridges of the Nets and Lauri Markkanen of the Jazz. These two are longshots not only because of the cost, but because these are the teams least likely to blow it up, and if they do, these are the players they will keep as the centerpiece.
But if I were Troy Weaver I'd be on the phone to see if a combination of Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Stewart and/or Jalen Duren and draft picks gets me in the door for Markkanen or Bridges. It's doubtful but worth investigating.
The Atlanta Hawks will almost certainly unload one of Trae Young or Dejonte Murray, but neither of them should interest the Pistons.
The Bulls have a few players that could hit the market, but Chicago seems content to chase the 8th seed forever. Will they bring back DeRozan? Trade Zach LaVine? Alex Caruso? DeRozan will likely want to go to a contender, and the Pistons should stay far away from LaVine. Caruso would be a great addition but at what cost and will they even make him available?
The Trail Blazers have Jerami Grant and Malcolm Brogdon to jumpstart a rebuild if they want. If the Pistons wanted to eat Grant's contract they could probably get him for cheaper than some of these other guys, but that's a big IF, as he is owed a lot of money and is the type of fringe star who isn't going to move the needle much unless there are other additions.
Would Memphis make Jaren Jackson Jr. or Desmond Bane available if they feel they are not going the right way? Highly unlikely.
The potential rebuild option isn't laden with players that are realistic options for the Pistons, so they may have to hope for teams that don't want to blow up their roster but need to shed salary.
Possible second apron and luxury tax teams
-Phoenix Suns
-Boston Celtics
-New Orleans Pelicans
-Minnesota Timberwolves
I'd rank the Suns and Celtics as huge longshots here, as both have rosters that can compete for titles for the next few seasons at least.
But if one of them got knocked out early, are they going to want to spend huge money (as well as other penalties) to clear the second tax apron?
Would Boston ever trade Jaylen Brown (probably not) and do the Pistons have enough to attain him? (almost certainly not).
Same for the Suns and Devin Booker. It's hard to see them trading their franchise player even if they bomb out in the first round, and even if they did, the Pistons may not have enough assets to even get in the conversation.
The Pelicans and Timberwolves might be the Pistons' best chance to land a star, as these are not teams that are accustomed to paying the luxury tax and both have payrolls that are about to get very expensive.
With super max deals for Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson looming, one of them almost certainly has to go unless the Pels would rather trade Trey Murphy III, in which case, the Pistons should be camping outside their arena.
The Timberwolves may have to jettison Karl-Anthony Towns to keep their payroll down, which will be even more likely if they lose early in the playoffs with him or make a deep run without him.
This is a long way of saying that the Pistons put a lot of faith in areas that are sketchy at best, as there aren't many good free agents, rebuilding teams or cap casualties to take advantage of.