Coming into the offseason, fans wondered if the Detroit Pistons would make sweeping changes to the worst team in franchise history or continue on the path GM Troy Weaver had taken them down.
It turns out we got some of each, as the Pistons cleaned house in the front office and coaching staff while tinkering with the roster, adding veterans without making any dramatic trades.
Trajan Langdon is on his own timeline, evaluating his player to see which ones will be part of the future. The veterans he brought in are on short-term deals, so it will be a chance to see guys like Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey with a better cast around them without committing to anything long term.
I wouldn’t expect the Pistons to make the playoffs next season, but if they don’t make some kind of progress, more questions will begin to emerge about their young core.
So, what does that look like? How many wins would satisfy a fanbase that is running low on patience?
Detroit Pistons over/under and record predictions
I’ll do my preview closer to the season, but now that the full Pistons schedule has been released, other outlets have started making their predictions.
Bleacher Report predicts a record of 23-59 for the Pistons with an over/under of 25.5, not exactly the kind of big leap fans are hoping for.
If everyone is healthy next season and the Pistons only win 23 games, I’d say that would be disappointing even though it’s a nine-win bump from last season.
Sadly, until they prove otherwise, the over/under is fair. There are certainly worlds in which the Pistons exceed those expectations, but they could also fall short of them if things don’t break their way.
Here’s what could go right, and what could go wrong.
How the Detroit Pistons exceed their over/under
I don’t think 30+ wins is out of the realm of possibility for the Pistons, especially if they get a little luck on their side.
It would start with staying healthy, something that hasn’t happened in any of the last four seasons when the Pistons had nearly constant injuries to key players.
Trajan Langdon addressed this by adding veterans who don’t miss a lot of games and don’t have lengthy injury histories.
For the Pistons to exceed expectations, they will need leaps from their young players, particularly the foursome of Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson.
The latter has to find a passable jump shot, while Duren and Ivey need to improve defensively. Cade Cunningham has to be a more consistent shooter, cut down on the turnovers and show that he can lead an offense with improved spacing.
JB Bickerstaff has to get this team into the top half of the league in defense, something he has a history of doing, by getting them to buy into a defensive identity first.
If all of these things happen, and a few teams in the Eastern Conference (Bulls, Hawks, Raptors) take steps back, the Pistons could emerge as the best of the bad teams, win 30+ games and at least sniff the play-in.
Of course, there is also a worst-case scenario.
How the Detroit Pistons fail to win 25 games
There was talk of the play-in before last season and we all know how that turned out.
The Pistons lost 28 in a row, were the worst team in the NBA and made no meaningful progress in player development.
While it’s doubtful things go that bad again, a slow start (with a brutal early schedule) could immediately start to wear on a young team that will be thinking “here we go again” as soon as something goes wrong.
In the worst-case scenario, the Pistons suffer a significant injury or two that force them into playing wonky lineups.
And what if the players don’t get better? Development is not a linear process where you can expect a player to be meaningfully better than he was six months ago. If Ivey gets off to a slow start, will his confidence (and trade value) be shot?
What about Ausar Thompson and his blood clots? Will there be any lingering physical or mental effects?
Will Cunningham lose interest if the team is bad again? Could he demand to be traded?
While the Pistons did add some veteran shooters, they are all past their prime and aren’t the kinds of players who are going to move the needle much without leaps from the young guys.
It’s easy to imagine a world where the Pistons make the kinds of improvements we’ve been waiting for, but we also live in the reality of Detroit’s recent history, so until they show it on the court, they aren’t going to get the benefit of the doubt from anyone.