The Detroit Pistons may have improved this offseason but the theme remains the same: They are only going to go as far as Cade Cunningham takes them.
It’s not hyperbole to say Cunningham is by far the team’s most important player and that a leap into stardom will be necessary if this team wants to be good in the near future.
The Pistons staked that future on Cunningham when they gave him a max extension this summer, a leap of faith for a player who has yet to play 65 games in a season.
Staying healthy and playing more than 64 games is crucial for Cunnigham next season, and if he does, all signs point to him being an All-Star.
There are three key reasons why next season is Cunningham’s breakout year and his first as an All-Star.
#1: Cade Cunningham’s post All-Star game stats are a preview
Cunningham struggled early last season with efficiency and turnovers, which is to be expected when your team is in the midst of a 28-game losing streak.
Both Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks were hurt, the Pistons had zero spacing, with Cunningham basically one on three in a phone booth.
Even with the challenges of the Pistons’ awful roster construction, Cunningham still improved as the season went on, posting 24.4 points, 7.6 assists and 4.9 rebounds on 45.5 percent shooting from the field and 39.6 percent from long range on over six attempts per game after the All-Star break.
He reduced his turnovers to 3.1 per game, which is not bad considering his usage (and the fact he was double-teamed on nearly every play in the half court) showing the ability to read and break down a defense while scoring from all three levels.
Cunningham has room to improve, especially his shooting consistency around the rim, where he shot only 54 percent on shots under five feet. Considering he was getting nearly six of these per game, a boost in that percentage will translate into another 4-5 points per game, as well as more fouls drawn.
Cade was very good from 10 feet out, but has to improve from the free-throw line in and should with improved spacing and more weapons around him.
#2: Cade Cunningham’s assists are going up
Cunningham was 12th in the NBA last season in potential assists at 12.9 per game, which is the combined number of assists and assists that could have been. That means Cunningham was losing more than five assists to missed shots last season, a number that should go down with better shooters around him.
The four best 3-point shooters on the Pistons last season were Bojan Bogdanovic (41.5 percent), Isaiah Stewart (38.3 percent), Simone Fontecchio (42.6 percent) and Alec Burks (40 percent), guys who barely played.
Bojan played 28 games, Stewart played 46, with Fontecchio playing just 16 games and Burks 43.
So, two of Cade’s best shooters were washed veterans who couldn’t get open and were hurt, a small-ball center who just starting taking 3’s last season and a guy who played 16 games.
Next season, Cade will have Fontecchio for the whole season and will also be kicking out to guys like Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. Beasley has been one of the best high-volume three-point shooters in the league over his career and both Harris and Hardaway Jr. are respected veterans that teams have to honor.
With improvements from Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson and more dunks from Jalen Duren, Cunningham should raise his assist total to closer to 10 per game, which will immediately put him in the All-Star conversation. He was 8th in the NBA last season in assists per game with one of the worst shooting teams in the league.
Tyrese Haliburton averaged 20 points, 10.9 assists and 3.9 rebounds per game last season, his 2nd as an All-Star and first time on the All-NBA team. There is no reason Cunningham won’t get similar or better numbers next season with an improved cast around him.
Cunningham was surrounded with some of the worst shooters in NBA history last season, just having Killian Hayes gone might be enough to boost his assist total.
But he will need more than individual improvement to get an All-Star nod.
#3: The Detroit Pistons will double their win total
Saying a team will “double their win total” sounds like a bold statement until you consider the Pistons won 14 games last season.
If Detroit would have quadrupled their win total last season they still would have finished behind the Celtics, Thunder, Nuggets and Timberwolves, that’s how bad they were.
28 wins still stinks, so let’s not get too excited here, but if the Pistons are at least competitive next season with Cunningham increasing his stats, he’ll get most of the credit and will likely be named an All-Star.
The last few seasons Cunningham wasn’t even on the radar because the Pistons were historically bad, which removed him from all consideration.
Cunningham was 8th in assists per game in the NBA with one of the worst rosters in the league. He’ll jump into the top-3-5 next season, improve his shooting numbers and win more games, which will put him on his first All-Star team.