The Detroit Pistons need to have a strong NBA Draft and some of that is going to rely on luck.
They not only have to get lucky enough for the lottery balls to fall their way but have to make the right call if they do end up with a top choice.
Troy Weaver seems up to the task and has already shown an eye for talent, grabbing Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart late in the first round, two guys who now look like the steals of their draft.
The words “steal” and “bust” get thrown around a lot in regards to draft picks, but really it’s just about how they perform relative to their draft position.
If a guy is picked 19th, like Bey, and plays like a top-five rookie, then he is a steal. If a guy gets taken in the top-five and isn’t great right away, he’s called a bust.
It’s completely unfair and not always an indicator of who will be the better player in the long run. Killian Hayes would be one fans might label “bust” from this draft while Tyrese Haliburton would be one of the “steals.”
We will surely be revisiting this over the years and Hayes could very well end up the better player. The NBA Draft is a crapshoot really, as there are very few “can’t miss” prospects and some guys hit their ceiling early while others take a few years to develop.
So when I say steal or bust, I am really just referring to their potential to be impact NBA players vs. where they might be drafted.
Here are five controversial draft prospects who have a lot of “steal” or “bust” potential depending on where they are taken in the draft.
These are all players who the Detroit Pistons might be able to get with one of their second-round picks, or by trading to move up to the middle or late first round.
Detroit Pistons: NBA Draft prospect, Josh Giddey
Josh Giddey is a point guard who plays for Adelaide of the Australian league and I have seen him mocked from the middle of the first round to the beginning of the second.
He is a guy the Pistons would likely have to trade up to get unless he fell to the second round.
He is a an interesting prospect who draws a lot of comparisons to Lonzo Ball because he is a tall point guard who can pass and create.
Giddey is not a great shooter yet and may never be, but has has slick handles, can create off the dribble and get his own shot in the lane.
He’s a little too much like Killian Hayes to play with him, though they would be an intriguing fit together defensively.
I can’t really see the Pistons trading up to get Giddey, but he’d be interesting if he somehow fell to the 37th pick, which is extremely unlikely.
I really like his game and think he’s going to get picked by a good team like the Warriors in the first round and be a nice playmaking point guard who can defend.
If he gets to the second round, I think he’ll be a steal.
Verdict: Steal
Detroit Pistons: NBA Draft prospect, Ayo Dosunmu
Ayo Dosunmu is another guy who I see projected anywhere from the late first round to the middle of the second.
I have written about Dosunmu has a possibility in the second round and I do think he would be a nice get if he fell to the 37th pick.
He is a long-armed defender on the perimeter, can guard a couple of spots, has a high motor and his shot isn’t as bad as it looks.
Dosunmu sounds like a Troy Weaver guy in a lot of ways and I wouldn’t mind if the Pistons took a flyer on him in the second round.
However, I think someone is going to reach a bit for Dosunmu, who checks a lot of the superficial boxes that people look for in a modern wing.
But there are a lot of questions about his shot, his shot selection, his ball handling and ability to make plays against NBA defenders.
I like Dosunmu as a second-round project but if someone takes him in the middle of the first round, that may be too high.
Verdict: Bust
Detroit Pistons: NBA Draft prospect, Davion Mitchell
Davion Mitchell is the classic case of a guy’s draft status being hard to gauge because of the NCAA Tournament.
I like Mitchell, as he is a tough on-the-ball defender and a winner, but winning in college does not always translate to success in the NBA, nor can you judge a guy too harshly if his team flames out early in the tournament.
Yes, there are some intangibles displayed in a long run in the NCAA Tournament and there are guys like Stephen Curry who rode that into superstardom in the NBA.
Will Mitchell be one of those guys?
He’s gotten a ton of hype since the tournament and if you look at his raw numbers there is a lot to like. He shot over 40 percent from long range and is a good defender.
But he’s also a bit undersized to defend up, is already 22-years-old.
I think Mitchell is going to be an NBA rotation player and has a chance to be a pretty good one as a defensive specialist who can shoot, but is that worth top-12 pick?
If he gets picked in the top-15, that seems too high and largely based on recency bias from the tournament. I love him late in the first round, but not so much as a reach in the lottery.
It will be interesting to see how he ends up comparing to teammate Jared Butler, who will probably be drafted later and may end up being better.
Verdict: Bust
Detroit Pistons: NBA Draft prospect, Cameron Thomas
Cameron Thomas is another guy who used a strong NCAA Tournament to get some national attention and potentially help his draft status.
He had two huge games in the tournament and finished the season averaging 23 points per game for LSU, albeit on some inefficient shooting numbers.
Thomas is projected to go anywhere from the middle first round all the way to the early second, though he is another guy I could see some team reaching for just outside the lottery.
Teams will likely have concerns about his inefficient shooting numbers and the fact that he didn’t hit a high percentage of 3-point shots.
But he shot a lot of them (7.2 per game) and was the primary focus of the other team’s defense as a freshman. He still scored 23 a game, which is nothing to ignore in college and shot 88 percent from the free-throw line, another sign that the shot is there.
I wrote that Thomas may be a guy worth trading up to get and if he is still there in the late first round the Pistons should consider it, as he is going to get points in the NBA, especially if he is used as an instant offense scorer off the bench.
A lottery pick would be a big reach for Thomas in my opinion, but if he falls to the end of the first round or even into the second, he’d be a nice get.
Verdict: Steal
Detroit Pistons: NBA Draft prospect, Luka Garza
There is no more controversial NBA Draft prospect than Luka Garza, the NCAA Player of the Year.
He is the classic case of the great college player whose game might not translate to the next level, though there are some things working in his favor.
Nicola Jokic is one of the frontrunners for MVP along with Joel Embiid, showing that centers still have value in the modern NBA, especially if they can do a lot of things and step away from the rim to shoot.
Garza is big and crafty but slow as a house, but you could say the exact same thing about Jokic, who is a basically a seven-foot point guard who has figured out how to use his size on offense without getting killed on defense.
Garza could be a stretch-five, as he can shoot and his playmaking isn’t terrible, but the question is whether he’ll be able to defend.
Will teams just pick-and-roll him to death? Will he be able to switch on perimeter players? He might be able to score in the NBA but who is he going to guard?
I have my doubts.
If Garza were to drop all the way to the Pistons final pick, which will probably be in the low 50’s, then he’d be worth a shot.
Will some team reach and take Garza in the first round? Will he be drafted at all? There is no one with more “steal” or “bust” potential than him.
Verdict: Bust