The best part of this season might have been the offseason, when fans of the Detroit Pistons were full of hope.
Some of it has proven to be misguided, as the Pistons are not competing for the play-in as some of us expected, and are instead staring down the possibility fo the worst season in franchise history.
During the All-Star break, we’ve been looking back at some of our preseason predictions to see how they have turned out so far.
We looked at a preseason Q&A with James Edwards III to see how his predictions for the season held up.
I also (cringing) looked back at some bold predictions I made before the season, which turned out to be bold for a reason, as only one of them really held up.
I also made some preseason predictions about each player. These were best-case-scenario predictions, so I knew some of them were long shots, but some actually did come true (or still might).
Let’s look back at what I optimistically thought about each player and what the reality has been.
Detroit Pistons: Optimistic predictions for the bench veterans revisited
Rodney McGruder
The prediction: No offense to McGruder but the most optimistic prediction is that he rarely plays but offers veteran leadership from the bench. Sorry, Rodney!
The reality: Nailed it! McGruder was actually good when called upon and I can’t complain about what he has given the Detroit Pistons.
Trey Lyles
The prediction: Trey Lyles will hit 40 percent of his 3-point shots and be a weapon for the Pistons as a stretch-five.
The reality: Well, some of this was right. Lyles didn’t hit close to 40 percent from 3-point range (30 percent with Detroit) but he did score in double digits off the bench and was effective at times as the stretch five before being traded as part of a package for Marvin Bagley III.
Cory Joseph
The prediction: Joseph will play well enough to get the Pistons two second-round picks at the trade deadline.
The reality: Joseph has been better than expected, played his way into the starting lineup and has shot 43 percent from 3-point range this season. If the Detroit Pistons had wanted to trade him at the deadline for two second-round picks, they probably could have. In fact, he might have outplayed his player option for next season and could decline it looking for a bigger deal.
So far these were pretty good if I do say so myself. The next group? Not so much.
Detroit Pistons: Optimistic predictions for the young bench revisited
Isaiah Livers
The prediction: Livers will dominate the G-League, come up later in the season and play well for the Detroit Pistons while becoming a fan favorite.
The reality: Well, none of these things came true and it’s pretty much been a lost season for Livers, who has only appeared in one game in the NBA and zero in the G-League. We’ve not gotten a recent update on his injury but it appears that we’ll have to wait until next season to see Livers, which is disappointing considering the Pistons gave him a 3-year deal. I thought Livers would appear and make an impact in Detroit this season but I was wrong.
Saben Lee
The prediction: Saben Lee will start at least 20 games this season and become the backup point guard after Joseph is traded.
The reality: Saben Lee has started zero games for the Detroit Pistons and has only appeared in 28 total. He’s been a dominant force of nature in the G-League, but it has yet to translate to the NBA, and since the Pistons didn’t trade Joseph, Lee will still struggle to get into the point guard rotation. There are many who believe he has more talent than Killian Hayes (I’m not one of them), and though I can’t agree with that, I do agree that he has played better and deserves more opportunity down the stretch.
Luka Garza
The prediction: Garza will play in more than half of the Pistons’ games this season and will average a double/double over the last 15 games after being inserted into the rotation.
The reality: Garza has played in 29 games so far, so the first part of the prediction could still happen, though it is unlikely given the recent addition of Bagley III and the return of Kelly Olynyk. I do think Detroit will eventually start to sit their veterans in the final games, so Garza could get the call up and be in the rotation for the final 15 games. Will he average a double double in that time? I think it’s possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it. It turns out that these optimistic predictions for Garza weren’t that far off, but I wasn’t nearly as high on him as some others.
Detroit Pistons: Optimistic predictions for the key bench players revisited
Frank Jackson
The prediction: Frank Jackson will be the second-leading scorer off the bench and shoot over 40 percent from 3-point range for the second year in a row, solidifying him as one of the best value contracts in the league.
The reality: I nailed some of this one, as Frank Jackson is the Pistons’ second-leading bench scorer. His shooting numbers have taken a dip and he’s never really gotten into a consistent rhythm after going through some injuries and having COVID. I still think his scoring potential makes him one of the best value contracts in the league and that he is one of the key bench pieces moving forward. Having guys on lowball contracts who produce is one of the things teams need to be good, and I think Detroit found one in Jackson.
Josh Jackson
The prediction: Josh Jackson will have a breakout season where he averages 15 points, 4.5 assists and 5 rebounds per game while shooting more than 35 percent from long range.
The reality: After a strong preseason, Jackson regressed to his regular self, turning the ball over too much, taking bad shots and being completely inefficient offensively. A lot of us were hoping Jackson would thrive this season on his hometown team, but that didn’t happen and they shipped him out. Turns out that we had no reason to be optimistic about Josh Jackson, but we’ll always have the time he punked Ben Simmons to remember.
Hamidou Diallo
The prediction: Diallo will be second on the team in blocked shots and will be a top-10 rebounding guard in the NBA.
The reality: Diallo is currently the 12th-leading shot blocker on the Detroit Pistons, so I was WAY off there. I thought his athleticism would lead to more blocked shots, but he is second in steals, just behind Cade Cunningham. Diallo is 23rd in the NBA in rebounding for guards, but isn’t far off the top-10, though I definitely thought he’d have closer to 6-7 per game than the 4.9 he currently has. Even though Diallo didn’t reach these two optimistic predictions, he has been good for the Pistons and has given them a much-needed boost of athleticism on a value contract.
Detroit Pistons: Optimistic predictions for the veteran leaders revisited
Kelly Olynyk
The prediction: Kelly Olynyk will hit more than 40 percent of his 3-point shots, lead the bench in scoring and finish top-5 for the Most Improved Player award.
The reality: An early injury cost Olynyk any chance of reaching these optimistic goals. He’s only hit 29 percent of his 3-point shots this season, though he hasn’t yet had a chance to really get into a rhythm nor build chemistry with the young guards. This season has been pretty disappointing for Olynyk, who was the Pistons’ big offseason acquisition but has yet to make much of an impact.
Jerami Grant
The prediction: Grant will make his first All-Star team as a power forward in the Eastern Conference. He will not be traded for Ben Simmons.
The reality: Grant was also robbed of most of his season by an injury, so he never got a chance to make his bid for the All-Star game. He was once again putting up fringe All-Star numbers before his injury but has only played in 33 games so far this season. The big question now is whether Grant can adjust his game to better fit the young core. If not, he might be playing his last 24 games as a Piston. He was not, in fact, traded for Ben Simmons, so at least that part was right.
Detroit Pistons: Optimistic predictions for the young core revisited
Killian Hayes
The prediction: Hayes will play at least 75 games and lead the team in assists. If either of these things happen, I’ll be pretty happy.
The reality: The sad part about these “optimistic” predictions is that they weren’t even that optimistic and Hayes still didn’t reach them. He will play a maximum 70 games this season if he plays in all of the final games, which I think is satisfactory given his injury history. He is not going to lead the team in assists, though he will likely finish second behind Cade Cunningham and has been pretty good in that area. Notice I didn’t make any optimistic predictions about his scoring, and for good reason, as Hayes hasn’t progressed much in that area and is actually averaging fewer points this season than he did as a rookie. His shooting numbers are still awful and he still doesn’t have much of a role in the offense. He’s been demoted to the bench and has played better, but if there is one thing I would change about this, it would be listing him as part of the young core, as he hasn’t played well enough yet to be considered a guaranteed long-term piece.
Saddiq Bey
The prediction: Saddiq Bey will set the all-time record for 3-pointers made by a player in his first two seasons in the league. Probably not, but he’ll be in the top-5 with some all-time great shooters.
The reality: This one is interesting, as Bey has increased his scoring and added some nuance to his offensive bag, but he hasn’t done nearly as much damage from behind the 3-point line. Bey has evolved into a poor man’s Jimmy Butler, a guy who can score all over, though he is not nearly the defender or finisher that Butler has been over the last eight seasons. Even though Bey is not going to break any 3-point records this season, he’s been solid and is definitely part fo the core moving forward.
Isaiah Stewart
The prediction: Isaiah Stewart will average a double-double and lead the team in blocked shots.
The reality: Stewart is just below a double double, averaging 8.3 points and 8.4 rebounds and he does lead the team in blocked shots. His offensive game has taken a step back as his defensive responsibilities have increased and Beef Stew needs to get better in the pick-and-roll, but he’s been solid lately and is having a pretty good second season even though he hasn’t evolved as a scoring threat.
Cade Cunningham
The prediction: Cade Cunningham will win Rookie-of-the-Year and be top-5 in every significant statistical category for 2021-22 rookies.
The reality: Cade is in the top-5 of pretty much every category and is still alive for Rookie of the Year, though a recent injury definitely hurt his chances. I still think he has a good shot at it, so this prediction could be spot on, though my optimism at the time was tempered by a preseason injury.