On paper, the Detroit Pistons should be better next season, but that’s saying little when the team only won 14 games.
Being slightly better than the worst ever likely wouldn’t be enough to satisfy fans who are sick of being told to wait until next year and the next in perpetuity.
How much improvement the Pistons make next season will rely on a number of factors including internal development, veteran impact and addition by subtraction, as the Pistons’ roster last season was littered with players who are on the fringes of the league or out of it altogether.
We know Cade Cunnigham needs to be good. We know Jaden Ivey has to make a leap and we know the Pistons have to get more out of their veterans, but there are also a number of X-factors that could make the Pistons better than expected.
The Pistons are being predicted to win 23-25 games by most publications, so what do they need to happen for the team to exceed those low expectations?
X-Factor #1: A coach who cares
Say what you want about Dwane Casey, but the man showed up every day, his players liked him and he tried to do his best by the franchise, which is why he still has a job in the front office.
None of those things can be said about Monty Williams, who had to be lured to a job he never wanted by more money than he could turn down. I’m not sure he even knew the names of his players at the start of the season, evidenced by the fact Killian Hayes was in the starting lineup.
JB Bickerstaff has been criticized for various things, but he’s excited about the job, was happy to take it and should bring some renewed energy to young players who didn’t get enough from their coach last season.
Bickerstaff has a history of top-10 defenses and getting the most out of young players.
Having a competent coach will matter and should be good for a few extra wins in itself, as it was clear to anyone who watched that Monty Williams was never there.
X-Factor #2: Jalen Duren
Jalen Duren is entering his third season and, in many ways, the 20-year-old is ahead of schedule.
He’s already a force in the pick-and-roll as a lob threat, averaged 2.4 assists per game last season, 14 points and over 11 rebounds, numbers you’d take out of any 20-year-old.
Duren needs to improve defensively, but the good news is that he knows that and it will be the focus of the offseason for him. There is plenty of evidence of young centers making big leaps defensively and I expect Duren to do the same.
He has to.
Dunks and rebounds are great, but they are also easy to find from big men around the league. To be the center of the future, Duren has to be a defensive anchor, it’s that simple.
Bam Adebayo is a player who Duren should use as a model, as he is an athletic big who can defend away from the rim while also protecting the paint. Adebayo didn’t make the All-Defensive team until his third season when he was two years older than Duren is now, so we shouldn’t expect Duren to go from below average to All-Defense just yet.
But he does have to improve, and if he does, the Pistons could make the type of leap defensively that will help them to a surprising number of wins.
X-Factor #3: Ausar Thompson
We talk endlessly about Cade Cunningham and his importance to the Detroit Pistons, but to me, Thompson is equally as important.
This year’s playoffs were partially defined by athletic wings on defense, guys like Jaden McDaniels, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White etc...
Thompson is already an agent of chaos on defense, the boards and in transition, but if he can start to score more efficiently, he could end up being the Pistons’ best player.
Thompson is the type of player who can impact the game in myriad ways, but if he makes a leap offensively, even when it comes to scoring around the rim, he’s going to be the foundational player along with Cunningham. And if he gets his long-range shooting up to even league average, he's going to be an All-Star soon.
It’s a shame his rookie season was cut short, as Thompson was coming on late, scoring in double digits in 10 of his final 14 games before having to leave early with blood clots.
A big year-two leap from Thompson, and the Pistons could surprise some people next season.