Detroit Pistons: A case for tanking
The Detroit Pistons only have eight games left. Should they try to work their way back into the playoffs or pack it in for best draft positioning?
To quote the great William Shakespeare, “To tank or not to tank, that is the question.” Ok maybe he didn’t say that, but it was pretty much what he was getting at, right?
With eight games remaining the Detroit Pistons have two directions they can consciously choose between: 1) play for the playoffs at just 1.5 games back 2) Tank like there’s a tomorrow, because there is.
(Of course, the Pistons could consciously decide to make the playoffs, but unconsciously tank and visa versa).
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In this piece, we are going with choice number 2.
Sure, the Pistons are just a game and a half back from eighth seed and play the eighth seed Miami Heat tonight. A win against Miami and a mini hot streak could put the Pistons unfathomably as it stands right now, in fifth place in the East.
Let me first get one thing clear–the Pistons will not win enough of their last eight games to make the fifth seed in the East. Their ceiling is probably the seventh seed and this team has no chance against the Washington Wizards or Cleveland Cavaliers (current one and two seeds in the East).
What’s more likely, given what we’ve seen from the team, is that even trying to make the playoffs result in a high probability of missing.
The second choice, that is, where the Pistons decide to tank (Also known as the best choice) has a bit rosier of an outcome.
Here, the Pistons tank like there’s a tomorrow, because there is, and finish with a higher draft pick. Without much cap space (though the Pistons will presumably make some significant changes this offseason) the Pistons have only one option to acquire talent. The draft.
Furthermore, the draft not only provides talent, but young talent on a team friendly long-term rookie deal. Best case scenario, the Pistons lose out and finish. 34-48. That puts them within striking distance of the 76ers, Knicks, Hornets, and Magic (all of whom have 27-28 wins) and the Mavericks, Pelicans, Timberwolves, and Kings (all of whom have 28-31 wins).
So in the best (yet unlikely) scenario for tanking, the Pistons could jump eight spots and finish the season with a top four pick before the lottery.
What is most likely, however, is that the Pistons land a pick somewhere between 8-10 in a loaded draft class.
I like that a lot.
Given the way the Detroit Pistons have been playing, and how they will likely finish the season, it’s safe to say there are going to be changes this offseason. Perhaps the Pistons package one of their better players, along with the eighth pick, to move up even further?
To recap, here’s the most realistic scenarios in either direction:
1) The Pistons make the playoffs as a seven seed, lose in the first round, and pick 18th overall
2) The Pistons get a pick between 8-10.
It is clear the Pistons lack a top shelf player. Not only does tanking provide the Pistons with a better crop of players to choose from, but it also increases their chances of winning a top three pick in the lottery–anything they can do to increase their chances at a top pick which in turn should yield a top player.
Next: How should the Pistons evaluate this season?
The best thing the Pistons can do after such a lackluster season is play like there is a tomorrow. Moreover, a new start with a top talent in a new arena is much more appealing than making the playoffs and losing in the first round with no cap space or lottery draft picks.
So I ask you Pistons’ fans, should the Detroit Pistons play for tomorrow or try to make the playoffs?