3-on-3: These Pistons are just bad, right?
1. Try to explain why this losing streak — now at 12 games — has reached such a comically depressing level?
Dan Feldman: Bad luck and the Pistons putting themselves in position to fall victim to it. Based on Pythagorean win percentage, the Pistons should have won two or three of their last 12 games. That awful mark is of their own doing, a bad team playing far below even its lowest expectations. But for the actual win total to drop to zero takes just a few bad breaks, and those have sent Detroit into this lengthy skid.
Brady Fredericksen: They still can’t score. I thought for sure my answer was going to be that the Pistons couldn’t hold a lead (which is true) or that they came out and stunk it up for, at least, one quarter every game (also true). But the real reason for all of that struggling is linked back to the fact that they can’t score. You can afford to let a team score 30-plus points in a quarter if you’re capable of getting 24-25 points yourself, but this team has developed a bad habit of letting their offense destroy their defense for those one-quarter stretches. That’s where you get those ugly 32-16 quarters. Until they’re either playing elite defense (lol) or scoring at even a league-average rate, the Pistons are stuck in the mud.
Tim Thielke: Two main reasons: bad play and bad luck. The Pistons are surprisingly terrible this season. Like many fans, my hopes for this season were too high going into the year. They were mostly founded on a recognition that Stan Van Gundy has historically been a very good coach. After posting a -3.8 per 100 possessions under some mind-boggling coaching decisions last year, I can’t figure out why the team is 82% worse (at -6.9 per 100 possessions) this season. We can’t chalk it up to small sample size, 21 games is actually quite a lot of data. Of the 16 teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended now, probably 13-15 will when they really begin. But the hopeful optimist in me is maintaining that it’s because Van Gundy wants the Pistons to learn to play a particular way and is willing to take his lumps to train the players to his preferred playing style.
But don’t understate the luck factor. The Pistons’ last three losses have been one possession games. No matter how good or bad the team, those are games that are won at a 50% clip over the long haul. That said, I don’t think luck has particularly hurt the Pistons’ record. They are one possession away from a 16-game skid and three possessions away from starting 0-21. All of their wins have been one possession games, making them 3-5 overall in that category. But the timing of which ones they’ve won and lost has perpetuated this streak.
2. Can you find a bright spot, just one, throughout these past 12 games?
Dan Feldman: Andre Drummond has changed the conversation from “Why has he regressed?” to “Why hasn’t he progressed?” under Stan Van Gundy. Hooray!
Brady Fredericksen: I think Van Gundy would be the first person to say there’s no value in moral victories, but the Pistons have competed and been within striking distance in most of these games. The only real blowouts were to Orlando and Milwaukee, and there are probably four other games (Suns, Sixers, Celtics, Thunder) where they had a chance to win. That’d make them 7-14…aka in the thick of the playoff race. It’s really too bad they’ve been incapable of making those kinds of game-winning/saving plays, isn’t it?
Tim Thielke: Remember that many of us Pistons’ fans were bemoaning that the Cavs jumped the Pistons and Detroit didn’t manage to keep its first rounder last draft? Yeah, about that. All of a sudden, that could be a very good thing. The pick would only be protected this draft if it were the first overall pick. And the odds of that are about 20 percent at best (I don’t see the Pistons ending up with a worse record than the Sixers). I really like Hornets forward Noah Vonleh (even though he has barely played as of yet this year), but I’d rather have a top-5 pick (looking fairly likely) in the upcoming draft.
3. The schedule doesn’t get any easier in the next handful of games, so when does this streak of futility actually end?
Dan Feldman: Not against the Trail Blazers tonight, not on a three-game road trip at the Suns, Kings and Clippers, not back home against the Mavericks or Raptors… They’ll have decent chances Dec. 21 at the Nets and Dec. 26 vs. the Pacers, but those aren’t gimme victories. Individually, winning any one of these next six seems unlikely, but collectively, it’s difficult to lose them all. Put me down for getting an upset before the toss-up games that sandwich Christmas.
Brady Fredericksen: Well, I see two reasonable chances to win before Christmas: Dec. 13 at Sacramento and Dec. 21 vs Brooklyn. Those aren’t givens of course, but the Pistons have won five of their past six in Sacto and Brooklyn is pretty blah itself. That said, I think Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and the Pistons get back in the win column against Phoenix. Remember all that bickering between the Pistons and Markeiff Morris? I think that’s the kind of fire-under-the-ass game (no pun) they need to get back on track. The streak ends at 13 losses.
