Detroit Pistons’ season at a crossroads
For months, we’ve been taking an early look at prospects set to enter the 2015 NBA Draft and dreaming about a brighter future for the Pistons. Who could blame us? The Pistons were miserable to start the season. They were so bad, they lost to the tanking Philadelphia 76ers and apparently got a coach fired in one of their few wins.
Flash to the present, and the Pistons are in the midst of an unbelievable turnaround following an addition-by-subtraction move — waiving Josh Smith. Since Smith’s release, the Pistons are 4-0, compared to 5-23 with Smith, and in jeopardy of missing out on one of the top talents in the draft once again.
Where the Pistons have drafted in the past five years
- 2014: Lost pick to Hornets
- 2013: No. 8, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
- 2012: No. 9, Andre Drummond
- 2011: No. 8, Brandon Knight
- 2010: No. 7, Greg Monroe
That list doesn’t look so bad. Maybe with the right coach, they could have even been a viable playoff team in 2014.
But those draft picks were near the best-case scenario. You can’t bank on a player like Drummond falling to No. 9 — or even one like Monroe falling to No. 7.
The Pistons have been stuck in neutral for the past five years and could be continuing along that same path.
It’s not too late, though.
Look at what the lottery seeds would look like if season ended today:
- 76ers (4-27)
- Knicks (5-30)
- Timberwolves (5-26)
- Pistons (9-23)
- Hornets (10-24)
- Lakers (10-23)
- Celtics (11-19)
- Jazz (11-22)
- Magic (13-23)
- Pacers (13-21)
- Nuggets (13-20)
- Kings (14-19)
- Thunder (17-17)
- Pelicans (17-16)
If they finish with the league’s fourth-worst record, the Pistons would have an 11.9 percent chance at the No. 1 pick, a 37.8 percent chance at a top-three pick, an 82.8 percent chance at a top-five pick and a guarantee of a top-seven pick.
Four games is such a small sample, and I doubt the Pistons keep winning at this clip. But of the 14 teams currently slated for the lottery, the Pistons have looked better than about 11 of them since releasing Smith.
The No. 12 seed in the lottery has just a 2.5 percent chance of moving into the top three and a 93.5 percent chance of staying at No. 12.
It’s been a real treat to see the Pistons play with such energy and enthusiasm. The players are having fun, and Stan Van Gundy looks like he’s having a tremendous impact on the development of the franchise player, Andre Drummond. Even Brandon Jennings is playing really well.
As unlikely as it seems, the Pistons are just four games from eighth place in the Eastern Conference thanks to their recent winning streak. If they continue to prioritize winning immediately, best case scenario: They sneak into the playoffs with no realistic chance of winning a title and only a slight chance of winning a single series.
More likely, they fall short of the postseason altogether.
That would drastically cut the Pistons’ chances of improving through the draft. The Pistons would have to place more of an emphasis on free agency, and, the last time I checked, Detroit wasn’t a very enticing destination for free agents.
The Pistons’ future should remain top priority as they determine which direction they want to go from here. I’m not so certain that Van Gundy, President of Basketball Operations, has the same vision as Van Gundy, Head Coach. But his internal struggle right now will define years to come.