Playoffs no certainty, but it’s too late for Pistons to tank
By Dan Feldman
"Don’t lose perspective. Dragged down by the weight of a 3-19 start to the season, the Pistons still are unlikely to make the postseason.The top eight Eastern Conference teams on Jan. 9 (including lockout-shortened 2011-12, when the season was just a couple of weeks old) have gone on to compromise the playoff field the last four seasons. Not since the 2007-08 Philadelphia 76ers has an Eastern Conference team more than one game out at this point rallied to reach the postseason.It doesn’t take long for teams to establish who they are and, in sum, the Pistons are a sub-par team. They weren’t as lousy as they looked to begin the season, and they’re not as good as they look right now. Wherever that middle ground falls, history says it’s likely short of the postseason.However:It’s too late to tank.As unlikely as the Pistons are to make the playoffs, they’re even less likely to increase their lottery odds.They’re playing their best basketball in years. With Josh Smith gone, Jodie Meeks healthy and everyone else thriving, realistic expectations peg this team as significantly improved. The Pistons are better than every team with a worse record (New York Knicks, Minnesota Timberwolves, 76ers, Los Angeles Lakers and Orlando Magic) and several with a better record (Utah Jazz, Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers and Sacramento Kings). There’s no easy way for Detroit to work itself down the leaguewide standings.I advocated tanking last year, but it’s important to note the differences between then and now.Those Pistons were a collection of parts — including Smith, Rodney Stuckey and coaches Maurice Cheeks and John Loyer — that couldn’t work in the long term. There would have been no harm in breaking up the team to secure a higher draft pick.This isn’t necessarily the core of Stan Van Gundy’s first good team in Detroit, but it could be."
"There just aren’t convenient ways to tilt the roster toward tanking, short of benching productive players for worse options, which would be the quickest way for Van Gundy to lose the locker room.More important in relation to last season, the Pistons keep their first-round pick this year no matter what. Last season, they lost it if it fell outside of the top eight — which is a big reason I wanted them to tank into the top eight.Yes, there’s a difference between a top-five pick (what the Pistons could maybe get if they tanked) and one in the 10-16 range (where they’re likely headed). But there’s an even bigger difference between the No. 8 pick and no pick at all.As plenty of people pointed out last year, the Pistons had to surrender a first-rounder to Charlotte (the result of the Ben Gordon trade) at some point. Even if they tanked to keep it last season, the pick would have gone to the Hornets this year or next.But I saw a young team with the raw ability to make a big leap. I wanted the Pistons to keep their pick last year and then surge forward this season, significantly reducing the value of the selection they’d convey to Charlotte.The Pistons screwed up the first part of that plan, winning just enough to suffer a bit of bad lottery luck and ship off the No. 9 pick. But after a putrid start, this team is making the leap. Brighter days are ahead with Andre Drummond and Co. They might even be here already."