With all due respect to international prospects we have limited knowledge about (see Mario Hezonja and Kristaps Porzingis), Emmanuel Mudiay is easily the biggest wild card in the draft. He was a top five recruit who opted to make over a million dollars from the Guangdong Southern Tigers instead of a year of “free” “education” in the NCAA.
Did that decision end up costing him overall? It’s hard to say. Depending on his play, his draft stock could have risen or fallen. Given that he was expected to sign with the SMU Mustangs and that team exceeded expectations even without him, a rise seems more likely. However, his performance against less well-understood competition in China didn’t really move the needle either way. So, oddly, turning himself into a wild card was probably the safest move.
With that in mind, recognize that most of my assessment below is based on limited clips, stat lines, and things others have written. I’ve never watched a full game that Mudiay has played and I’m not even sure if there are any available that I could watch.
What he does well
Mudiay appears to be cut from the same cloth as Marcus Smart and Michael Carter-Williams. He is probably a slightly better prospect than either of them were but is another physically imposing point guard with a reputation for tenacious defense and imposing his will upon a game in spite of a broken jump shot. One could also compare him to a young Jason Kidd–less stylistically, but more in terms of production.
Mudiay is able to play either guard although his upside is definitely at point guard. I expect that is where both he and whatever team drafts him intends to see him play primarily. That would further allow Mudiay to leverage his ability to spot teammates all over the floor and complete difficult passes. He is also an excellent rebounder for his position, even if he is playing at shooting guard.
Mudiay decided not to participate at the NBA combine so the available numbers on his athleticism are limited, but he appears to be both very fast and explosive. His quickness, combined with his willingness to play physical ball could result in a lot of free throw opportunities.
What he does poorly
As alluded to previously, Mudiay is not a good shooter. That can be a serious liability in today’s NBA. His three point shooting was actually pretty decent this past season in China at 34%, but he is known for not having a jump shot in high school and his 57% mark from the free throw line suggests that is still a big problem.
Mudiay’s ball handling also leaves something to be desired. Combined with below average decision making (see his ability to make tough passes above), he has unacceptably high turnover totals. Those are both problems that can often be fixed, so they’re not deal breakers, but they are worth taking into consideration.
Should the Pistons pick him?
If I were making the pick on the Pistons’ behalf, I would fairly confidently put Karl Anthony-Towns, D’Angelo Russell, and Justise Winslow in the top three spots on my draft board. Emmanuel Mudiay and Jahlil Okafor are generally considered the other top 5 prospects. I consider all five to be fairly equal prospects (although Towns has a slight lead on the pack) but the Pistons desperately need shooting. They are constantly flirting with having a devastating number of non-shooters on the roster. So I consider Mudiay and Okafor to be poorer fits and would even consider taking Porzingis over either if somehow all three of them were available and none of my top three were.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team reach for Kristaps Porzingis or Willie Cauley-Stein and most years there’s one baffling pick in the top 10. So if the Pistons stay at 8, there is a miniscule chance that Mudiay (or one of the other top 5 guys) could fall to them, but that would be pretty shocking.
If the Pistons do jump up in the lottery, they should of course do their due diligence on Mudiay. And maybe he would be worth taking the risk, I just don’t think so. If he does somehow fall to the Pistons at 8, they should absolutely snatch him up and then figure things out from there. Realistically, though, it doesn’t feel like going out on a limb to say Emmanuel Mudiay won’t be a Piston next year. In the meantime, here’s some of what he can do: