The 2015 NBA draft could go a number of different directions before the Detroit Pistons make their selection at eight. The good news? They are in the perfect position to get a player that fits a need and can contribute right away.
Kristaps Porzingis would be my pick for the Pistons in a perfect world, but that’s only one of the possible scenarios on draft night. Let’s explore another could-be situation for Detroit.
If the board fell the way it did in this hypothetical, the Pistons would be faced with an interesting decision. Based on my Big Board which is broken up by tiers, the Pistons would be choosing between Mario Hezonja, Myles Turner, and Stanley Johnson
Do they take the player with the biggest risk/reward in Hezonja, Turner who would fit nicely next to Drummond but comes with major risks of his own, or do they opt for the safe pick in Johnson, who has upside, though not as great as Hezonja or possibly even Turner because his fit next to Drummond, but can contribute right away and play at position(s) of need?
The case for/against Mario Hezonja:
His upside is great, because of his elite athleticism, size, and shooting stroke. He’s also got a nastiness to his game that falls into the Westbrook/Bryant mold that teams either love or hate. His 6-foot-8 frame allows him to play shooting guard or small forward which may be appealing to Van Gundy with the way Jodie Meeks played a season ago.
Where do the Pistons fall in terms of his attitude? That in itself will likely dictate how high Hezonja goes. His less than ideal weight suggests he might be better suited to play shooting guard early on in his career which isn’t really a position of need for the Pistons. In fact, shooting guard might be the best position for him long-term where he could excel against smaller players on both sides of the ball.
The case for/against Myles Turner:
His shooting stroke and rim protection makes him a great fit next to Drummond. Replacing Greg Monroe–in the likely event he bolts in free agency–with a player that better fits should be priority number one for the Pistons to get the most out of their franchise player. There aren’t many fours that can stretch the floor and offer adequate defense in return.
He runs awkward which suggests a hidden injury which teams will need to do their homework on to determine his long-term health. Although a good shot blocker, his lateral quickness and overall athleticism are below NBA standards meaning he’s going to have to be proficient at the things he can control: Consistency offensively, adding weight to his frame, and fundamentals.
The case for/against Stanley Johnson:
NBA ready body and he’s a good defender. Due to his size, Johnson offers the ability to play either small forward or power forward in small doses. That kind of versatility is exactly what Stan Van Gundy is looking for. Johnson isn’t in Hezonja’s class in terms of shooting or scoring, but his 37.1% shooting from three is satisfactory and should only increase with more experience.
He can spot-up effectively and slash to the rim for easy points, but is still raw in terms of being able to create for himself. He also struggled when getting to the rim which was surprising given his size. Some also worry his lack of elite athleticism, but those concerns seem to be overblown. While Johnson is the safest pick of the three prospects, he’s not as polished offensively as Hezonja, nor as explosive, and he doesn’t offer the rare fit that Turner does next to Drummond.
Verdict:
While Hezonja’s skill-set and upside is tempting, he’s also more of a risk than Johnson, who should be able to contribute from day one. Not only is Johnson more NBA-ready, but his versatility at positions of need ends up being the deciding factors for Hezonja vs. Johnson. Not to mention that Hezonja looks best suited for shooting guard and would be most effective getting his minutes there for whichever team ends up drafting him.
That leaves Turner vs. Johnson. While finding a player who fits with Drummond down low should be the Pistons’ top priority, it doesn’t make sense to draft someone who has below average athleticism for the position, potential long-term health risks, and needs time to develop when there’s a prospect on the board that can can help right away and doesn’t have an long-term health concerns.
Furthermore, when looking at prospects, work ethic and desire needs to be big parts of the equation. Many players have big-time upside only to fall well short of expectations. Conversely, there are players that seemingly have no outside expectations that turn out to be all-stars, because they worked on their craft and were able to somewhat mask their weaknesses.
With that said, Stanley Johnson’s work ethic and desire have been well documented, and there’s no reason to think he won’t continue to turn his weaknesses into strengths.