Ersan Ilyasova brings back memories…

Memories of Charlie Villanueva, of course. You could barely draw up two more identical players. It’s not just that they’re foreign combo forwards Detroit got from Milwaukee who look a bit goofy, have almost identical builds and were drafted in 2005. Although that is the beginning of a long list of eerie similarities.

They are both valued almost exclusively for their abilities to stretch the floor, particularly from the power forward position. And see for yourself how comparable their production on the floor was through the points when Detroit acquired them:

The main differences are that Charlie attempted and converted significantly more two-pointers while Ersan is more accurate from beyond the arc. But those are mostly factors of it being six years later now. Another difference is that Ilyasova has been able to put up comparable production on better (though still not good) teams. That does matter, but it’s really tough to pinpoint how much. If you prefer to compare them across their entire careers, go for it, that doesn’t change much.

Among other takeaways, this is a good reminder that Dumars was in fact right when he surmised back in 2009 that the NBA was moving toward a more perimeter-oriented game and that having guys who could shoot from long range was rapidly going to become a top priority league-wide. And he targeted two of the top three-point shooters in the league for their positions. If Villanueva and Gordon hadn’t crashed and burned in Detroit, we might be lauding was a visionary or genius Dumars was. But they did, and Dumars kept digging his hole deeper.

Given my comparison and how terribly Villanueva worked out for the Pistons, it may be surprising to hear that I actually like this trade. But there are a number of reasons why it was a good move.

First, Ilyasova is coming into a much better situation for him to potentially thrive. The Pistons have a lot of work to do to become good again. But it would be a lot better to be the stretch four beside a 21-year-old Andre Drummond than a 35-year-old Ben Wallace. And as much as I’m not yet entirely sold on Reggie Jackson, he appears to be a lot better than Rodney Stuckey was six years ago.

Second, even accounting for the situation he was walking into, Villanueva massively underachieved. It would be foolish to bank on that happening for any similar player. Most moves carry risk. The fact that a comparable one came up snake eyes before doesn’t change the value proposition of trying this one. It’s a good move even though it could backfire.

Finally, the contract. For all intents and purposes, the Pistons just signed Ilyasova into cap space. Butler’s option was going to be declined and Williams hadn’t earned a roster spot for next season. The biggest difference between Ilyasova’s and Villanueva’s contracts is the length. Villanueva was signed for five years while Ilyasova is basically a one-year commitment with a team option for an additional year at what will almost certainly be a bargain rate. Given the slightly higher cap there already is relative to 2009, even today Ilyasova’s slightly higher annual rate is a lower percentage of the cap than VIllanueva’s was.

The one concern to be aware of is that this was Van Gundy basically settling for a sure thing at fairly paying a C-list free agent instead of taking a stab at probably overpaying a B-list free agent who may be a longer-term member of the team. That’s not necessarily a bad thing but how the market changes under the ballooning cap is hard to predict. This could be the last summer for a long time that Detroit has more cap space than most opponents, And Van Gundy just spent a good chunk of it on a guy who will almost certainly never be much more than an average starter, if that.