I unveiled my tier-based NBA draft rankings at ProBasketballTalk today.
The idea is to sort players by value (a combination of current level, potential and likelihood of reaching potential). When multiple players appear to have extremely similar values, rather than parsing the difference, they’re placed into the same tier.
When drafting, always pick a player from the highest tier with a player remaining. If multiple players remain in that tier, choose the one that fits the team best.
So, it’s close to a best-prospect-available method. Essentially, fit is the tiebreaker.
The board at ProBasketballTalk covered the entire first round, which in this draft, contains 11 tiers. Within each tier, players are sorted for a team working from a blank slate.
Here, the players are sorted within each tier based on their fit with the Pistons. I also added a 12th tier that runs through the Pistons’ second-round pick, No. 38, and actually one spot further. That tier contains explanations for the players. If you want to read my explanations for the top 32 players, they’re at PBT.
One last note: The best fit at No. 38 could change depending what the Pistons do at No. 8. I sorted players in those lower tiers based on what the Pistons have now.
Without further ado, my top-39 draft board for the Pistons, who have the No. 8 and No. 38 picks in the 2015 NBA draft:
Tier 1
1. Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky
Tier 2
2. D’Angelo Russell, PG, Ohio State
3. Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
Tier 3
4. Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia
5. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China
Tier 4
6. Justise Winslow, SF, Duke
Tier 5
7. Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona
8. Mario Hezonja, SF, Croatia
9. Myles Turner, C, Texas
Tier 6
10. R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State
11. Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky
12. Frank Kaminsky, C, Wisconsin
13. Bobby Portis, PF, Arizona
14. Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State
15. Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
Tier 7
16. Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin
17. Tyus Jones, PG, Duke
Tier 8
18. Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas
19. Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA
20. Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky
21. Delon Wright, PG, Utah
Tier 9
22. Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia
23. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona
24. Christian Wood, PF, UNLV
25. Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame
Tier 10
26. Michael Frazier, SG, Florida
27. Chris McCullough, PF, Syracuse
28. Cedi Osman, SF, Turkey
Tier 11
29. Anthony Brown, SF, Stanford
30. Richaun Holmes, PF, Bowling Green
31. Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C, France32. Joseph Young, SG, Oregon
Tier 12
33. Vince Hunter, PF, UTEP
Hunter is a beast on the boards and can guard multiple positions. But he’s rough around the edges offensively.
34. Arturas Gudaitis, C, Lithuania
Gudaitis embraces contact on both ends and moves well in all directions, including up. On the downside, he’s already 22 and has neither advanced offensive skills (shooting, passing) nor defensive awareness.
35. Rakeem Christmas, C, Syracuse
Christmas posted some eye-popping numbers last season: 17.5 points. 9.1 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game. But he’s 23 and didn’t get good until his senior year – a major red flag. Still, there’s the possibility he truly advanced as a player rather than just outgrowing his competition.
36. Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas
Alexander playing fewer than 500 minutes in his freshman season probably works in his favor. We can suppose there’s still hope of him living up his elite recruiting rankings, even though he looked inadequate at everything besides blocking shots and offensively rebounding.
37. Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville
An undersized energy player who doesn’t always play hard. He doesn’t have a natural feel for chasing down rebounds, either. But his explosiveness brings potential.
38. Terry Rozier, PG, Louisville
Rozier can get to the basket, and that’s a start. But he doesn’t effectively finish, draw fouls or pass once he gets there.
39. Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV
Vaughn is just 18 and has offensive talent. But even considering that, his inefficiency last season was disappointing. He must select shots better, because he lacks the athleticism to keep playing how he plays.