A guest post by Jack Detsch
With his first season as coach of the Pistons in the books, Stan Van Gundy hopped on a flight to Spain in late April to check out some Liga ACB games, catching a glimpse of Barcelona’s Mario Hezonja, a rangy 6’8” forward from Croatia likely to be near the top of the board when front office staffers huddle in the draft war room tonight.
What did Van Gundy take away from seeing “Super Mario” up close?
On April 30t, with Heat President Pat Riley also in attendance, Hezonja suited up for sixteen minutes of play, going 2 for 3 from the field for four points. The Croatian youngster couldn’t find his highly touted three-point touch that night, missing all three of his attempts from downtown, after checking in with 2:43 left in the first quarter against Rio Natura.
But Van Gundy didn’t make the trip just based on grainy YouTube clips. The stats like “Super Mario” too: According to Layne Vashro’s “Expected Win Peak” model over at Nylon Calculus, Hezonja measures out as the best international prospect since 2011, besting even Latvian big man Kristaps Porzingis, who’s expected to be selected at the top of the lottery.
You wouldn’t have noticed that against Rio Natura. Hezonja looked pretty green from the get-go. On his first possession, he cut baseline on a flex screen to the weak side corner, only to realize that a teammate was already there. Hezonja paused, set a half-hearted screen in no man’s land, before eventually wriggling his way into an open look that he couldn’t convert.
That probably wasn’t what Van Gundy was hoping to see. But it’s to be expected. “Super Mario,” who turned 20 in March, has played just 800 minutes, competing with Barcelona’s A team against hardened professionals. In the NBA, where Chandler Parsons and Gordon Hayward command the max, it’s tough not to like his upside on a rookie contract.
In just 15 minutes a night, Hezonja has proven a serious catch-and-shoot threat, scoring 1.31 point per possession. He’s hitting a superhuman 57.6 percent shooting inside the arc and an impressive 39.5 percent from three, even though the backboard is about a foot and a half closer than in the NBA. The Croatian product tears around screens like a rookie Klay Thompson, seamlessly executing zipper, banana, and shuffle cuts, and spots up with a pretty up-and-down stroke, even though his mechanics tend to get wobbly when he is aggressively contested.
Other bits are missing, too. With few opportunities to prove himself, “Super Mario” hunts highlight-reel plays: skip passes, outlets, and contested fadeaways (a staggering 75 percent of his shots are jumpers). He’s a bit of a ball stopper, and hasn’t figured out how to attack the defense after a play breaks down.
Those tendencies translate on the other side of the ball. Hezonja likes to gamble on defense, zealously jumping passing lanes and fighting over screens, but he still gets distracted easily, giving up easy backdoor cuts at the rim while he’s watching the ball. ESPN’s Chad Ford offered J.R. Smith as a comparison: “Super Mario” can be effective, but only when he wants to.
Hezonja is not ready to create for himself consistently against NBA defenses, but he has a nifty arsenal of jab steps and jukes that give him just enough space to get his shot off. He doesn’t need much room to finish in the lane, and can handle contact at the rim when builds up a full head of steam.
That should be enough for Van Gundy to work with. In a past life, the Brockton College product coached the Orlando Magic to the Eastern Conference finals in 2009 and 2010 by surrounding Dwight Howard with shooters like Rashard Lewis, J.J. Redick, Marcin Gortat, and a young Ryan Anderson.
Casting Andre Drummond as a young Dwight, there’s evidence that the pairing could work. Van Gundy’s track record developing shooters is solid, and the overconfident Hezonja could contribute immediately for a Pistons team that shot a mediocre 34.4 percent from deep last season. He would add depth to a group of wings that is aging, underperforming, and in some cases, not long for the league.
He looks like a steal with the eighth pick.