Khris Middleton is the latest “one who got away” for the Detroit Pistons. This summer, they have an opportunity to get him back.
What he does well
Middleton is the prototypical 3-and-D wing. He can play at shooting guard, small forward, and power forward. He can guard just about everyone who isn’t a center. He spreads the offense with his shooting. He passes the ball well enough that the offensive set doesn’t break down if the defense rotates well. Guys like Middleton have been around the league for a while, but their values are at all-time highs.
He also spends most of his minutes at the two spots that figure to be the thinnest for Detroit assuming Greg Monroe goes elsewhere. I am assuming that Van Gundy is rightly unconcerned either way about Khris having played for the Pistons in the past, unless of course Andre Drummond or another current player has specific recommendations or concerns.
How much he will cost
As a new generation of players works its way into the league–players who grew up shooting lots of threes–the ability of teams to capitalize on the extra 50% reward of long shots increases too. It does so to the point that it has become tenable for teams to play full lineups of guys who can shoot from a long way out. That causes an instant liability to any opponent who rosters even a single player who doesn’t defend those shots well. Middleton does the two things that are expected of most role player wings today. And he is going to be much better compensated for it than he would have even three years ago.
As a 23 year old who has yet to take a big leap but is already a very useful two-way player, I anticipate his annual figure will be upwards of $10 million.
Should the Pistons chase him?
Obviously, it would be foolish to not at least put out feelers on Middleton. He brings the exact skill set the Pistons need to their barest position. He is entering restricted free agency, though, so it would most likely take an overpay to get the Bucks not to match, regardless of how excited Middleton is or isn’t about returning.
One valid concern is that he won’t be all that different from the player Dumars threw in on the Brandon swap a couple years ago. Middleton has displayed very slight improvement each year, but most of the difference from years one to two could be attributed to getting more minutes. Besides that, his three-point percentage has gone up, but that may just be because Detroit is where three-point shooters go to die.
| three point shooting in Detroit | three point shooting elsewhere | difference | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| player | makes | attempts | percentage | makes | attempts | percentage | |
| Luigi Datome | 8 | 43 | 0.186 | 17 | 36 | 0.472 | -0.286 |
| Quincy Miller | 2 | 11 | 0.182 | 31 | 102 | 0.304 | -0.122 |
| Shawne Williams | 4 | 26 | 0.154 | 271 | 786 | 0.345 | -0.191 |
| Cartier Martin | 6 | 33 | 0.182 | 212 | 553 | 0.383 | -0.202 |
| John Lucas | 9 | 29 | 0.310 | 154 | 444 | 0.347 | -0.037 |
| Joel Anthony | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Tayshaun Prince | 510 | 1376 | 0.371 | 55 | 151 | 0.364 | 0.006 |
| Jonas Jerebko | 152 | 454 | 0.335 | 26 | 64 | 0.406 | -0.071 |
| Reggie Jackson | 28 | 83 | 0.337 | 164 | 569 | 0.288 | 0.049 |
| Josh Smith | 79 | 302 | 0.262 | 330 | 1133 | 0.291 | -0.030 |
| Anthony Tolliver | 82 | 228 | 0.360 | 302 | 851 | 0.355 | 0.005 |
| Brandon Jennings | 230 | 668 | 0.344 | 545 | 1540 | 0.354 | -0.010 |
| Kyle Singler | 240 | 633 | 0.379 | 20 | 54 | 0.370 | 0.009 |
| D.J. Augustin | 49 | 150 | 0.327 | 584 | 1554 | 0.376 | -0.049 |
| Jodie Meeks | 74 | 212 | 0.349 | 561 | 1492 | 0.376 | -0.027 |
| Caron Butler | 83 | 219 | 0.379 | 660 | 1907 | 0.346 | 0.033 |
Twenty players suited up for the Pistons this past season. All but Drummond, Monroe, Dinwiddie, and Caldwell-Pope have played for another team at some point, whether before or after their Pistons tenure. Just about everyone else has shot threes much better for any other team. Butler is a bit of an exception. He has had a long career and has gradually improved his shooting over the course of it. But in the past four seasons before coming to Detroit, he was still 346-901 (.384). Hooray for Reggie Jackson, I guess.
If the Pistons signed Middleton, or any similar player, they would be hoping this trend does not extend to that signee.