What to be expected from Drummond in year four
Pistons fans hope Andre Drummond can be the cornerstone player for the franchise. They hope he can develop his offensive game, improve his defense which can be lackadaisical at times, and be a leader on and off the floor.
But where is Drummond in his development? where is he at this point in his career next to the players he’s often compared to in Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan?
Below is a breakdown of each player’s third year stats:
Dwight Howard: 17.6 points, 12.3 rebounds, .9 steals, 1.9 blocks, 58.6 free throw, 36.9 minutes
DeAndre Jordan: 7.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, .5 steals, .5 blocks, 45.2 free throw, 25.6 minutes
Andre Drummond: 13.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, .9 steals, 1.9 blocks, 38.9 free throw, 30.5 minutes
By year three both Drummond and Howard were 21, Jordan was a year older at 22. While their minutes varied too much to get a conclusive result, their per 36 yielded similar results.
Per 36
Dwight Howard: 17.2 points, 12.0 rebounds, .8 steals, 1.9 blocks
DeAndre Jordan: 10.0 points, 10.1 rebounds, .7 steals, 2.5 blocks
Andre Drummond: 16.3 points, 15.9 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 2.2 blocks
Numbers obviously don’t tell the whole story. While Drummond’s blocks and steals rival the best defensive player of the group, Dwight Howard–who’s won three defensive player of the year awards– those who have seen Drummond play know his one-on-one defense isn’t nearly as strong. Offensively, Drummond and Howard were more advanced at this stage in their careers than Jordan who got his points almost exclusively from dunks.
The question at hand is what do these numbers mean?
Howard jumped to 20.7 points, 14.2 rebounds, .9 steals, and 2.1 blocks in year four at 37.7 minutes per game–which is hardly an increase in playing time. Jordan received only slightly more minutes too going from 25.6 minutes per game to 27.2 and his totals followed that slight increase going to 7.4 points, 8.3 rebounds, .5 steals, and 2.0 blocks.
At this point, we can safely stop comparing Drummond to Jordan. In year three Jordan only average five less minutes per game and his year four numbers–which were within three minutes of Drummond’s third year– isn’t even close to the output that the Pistons’ big man put up.
That leaves Howard as the only suitable player to compare career trajectories to Drummond. Howard, at this point, is the better offensive and defensive player, Drummond has the edge in rebounding, but their numbers are close enough that it wouldn’t be out of the question to hope that Drummond can have similar output to Howard–at least at the offensive end.
In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Drummond pass Howard offensively next season.
Drummond’s individual numbers should be close offensively, because he’s playing in Stan Van Gundy’s offense which utilizes his skills in the pick-and-roll. There will also be more room to work in the post and in pick-and-rolls with the departure of Greg Monroe and the edition of floor spacer Ersan Ilyasova.
Drummond also showed he’s capable of growth offensively. Last season he morphed from an exclusive put-back and dunk scorer, to a one-on-one threat in the post with his hook shot. Just hitting that shot more consistently next season should put Drummond at Howard’s 20.7 points per game in his fourth season–especially if he sees an increase in his minutes.
How much he plays will be up to Van Gundy, but physically Drummond should be able to take on the load after having slimmed down this offseason.
Drummond’s tired of losing. So are the Pistons. If Drummond’s hard work this offseason pays off, there’s no reason to think that the Pistons can’t expect 20 and 14 next season from the big man.
Next: Is Andre Drummond fit to be the franchise cornerstone?