How will the Detroit Pistons’ season end in 2016?
Several prognosticators have peered into their crystal balls to foretell the Pistons’ fate. Some include Will Laws of Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Josh Martin and Alec Nathan of Bleacher Report, Nylon Calculus’ Andrew Johnson and Las Vegas Superbook as reported by Hardwood Paroxysm’s Derek James.
Using a multitude of methods, to various degrees each has the Pistons as a stronger team than the 32-win outfit they were last season, but not significantly enough to be a playoff participant in a negligibly stronger Eastern Conference. The most optimistic is Laws who sees a 40-win, ninth seed. Vegas is the most pessimistic predicting 34 wins and placing tenth while two sites think they will win at least 35 games and rank eleventh in their conference.
Collectively, the consensus is that the Pistons will end 2016 tenth in the east after a 37-win season.
Understandably, defeatists can point to the loss of Greg Monroe over the summer to the Milwaukee Bucks as a reason the Pistons will be lucky to even be marginally better. Monroe was arguably Detroit’s best player. He was the most reliable offensive threat and best post defender. Additionally, in his stead is Ersan Ilayasova who has been mostly a replacement-level player the past two seasons.
Furthermore, the player who led the Pistons through their most promising stretch, Brandon Jennings, has still not been cleared to play as he goes through an unpredictable recovery process from an Achilles tendon injury.
Contrarily, idealists see a team that should be better suited to execute Coach Stan Van Gundy’s offensive system and ended last season on a somewhat positive note by winning eight of its last 14 games – that’s a win-percentage of 57 and translates to 47 wins if extrapolated over an 82-game season. Moreover, the Pistons’ record was 26-17, good for 50 wins in an NBA season, without Josh Smith and Reggie Jackson’s 11-game acclimation process.
Along the same lines, the roster is littered with three-point shooters who can capably spread the floor for Jackson-Drummond pick-and-rolls. Also, small forward, by far last season’s weakest position, has been overhauled and strengthened with Marcus Morris from Phoenix and another Arizona transplant, rookie Stanley Johnson, who has only received rave reviews since being drafted.
Now, health permitting, it is highly unlikely the Pistons will take a step backwards, but 50, or even 47, wins after winning just 32 games is almost unfathomable supposing there are no major in season trades. Speaking strictly to production, the decline the Pistons are likely to see at power forward will be less significant than the uptick they will receive at small forward. Considering the other three positions in the starting lineup are probably remaining unchanged and the bench is more talented, especially at small forward and center (and point guard once Jennings is cleared to play), Detroit should win more games next season and be in playoff contention.
Ultimately, the Pistons will miss Greg Monroe more than they are anticipating. It will be most evident in the beginning of the season when they are still trying to find their identity on offense. Lacking a proven closer or the ability to dominate in any particular facet of the game, they may have a rough start to the season.
Without Monroe, Jackson’s Pistons showed real potential (121.5 offensive rating which would have led the league by a wide margin), but it would be unrealistic to think they can come out of the gate on that type of roll or can sustain it once teams have them scouted.
At its most opportunistic, the offense would still have a hard time covering for the Pistons’ subpar defense that features three guys who have never shown a true desire to defend, one who still has not figured it out (Drummond) and another who is headed in the right direction, but has not made it there quite yet (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope).
Expect the Pistons to be tightly grouped with similar teams who have more questions than answers (Indiana, Boston and Charlotte), gotten better over the summer through maturation or acquisition (Orlando and New York) and slightly declined due to personnel (Washington and Milwaukee) – a pack of teams who will win between 36 and 43 games and fight for the bottom three seeds in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Prediction: 39-43, ninth in the Eastern Conference; miss the playoffs.
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