How significant is the Pistons’ 3-0 start?
By Tim Thielke
If you’re on this site reading this article, you probably know that the Detroit Pistons are 3-0. And that such a hot start would not have been predicted by almost any objective observers (nor by me, whether I qualify as objective or not). Being one of the NBA’s only six undefeated teams is exciting, but is it enough to revise expectations for the team?
To help answer this question, I’m looking at how teams that start 3-0 tend to fare. If the NBA were entirely random and all these outcomes were complete flukes, we’d expect 12.5% of all teams to start 3-0, for half of them to lose their fourth game, half the remainder to lose their fifth game, and so on. They would go .500 the rest of the way and, on average, end their seasons 42.5-40.5.
If it is a symptom of real superior performance, we would expect to see more teams start out with such a record, fewer than half of them lose each ensuing game, and the average such team to win more than 42.5 games. If the opposite happened, that would be weird and would suggest that somehow starting hot jinxes a team. If instead, the scenario described in the previous paragraph were to unfold, we’d have to conclude those hot starts were complete flukes and had no predictive bearing whatsoever.
Here is a complete list of every team to be unbeaten through three games for the last 15 seasons:
Season | Team | Initial Win Streak | Final Record | Prorated Total Wins |
2000-01 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 4 | 30-52 | 30 |
2000-01 | Philadelphia 76ers | 10 | 56-26 | 56 |
2000-01 | San Antonio Spurs | 3 | 58-24 | 58 |
2000-01 | Utah Jazz | 5 | 53-29 | 53 |
2001-02 | Los Angeles Lakers | 7 | 58-24 | 58 |
2001-02 | Milwaukee Bucks | 4 | 41-41 | 41 |
2001-02 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 6 | 50-32 | 50 |
2001-02 | Sacramento Kings | 4 | 61-21 | 61 |
2002-03 | Dallas Mavericks | 14 | 60-22 | 60 |
2002-03 | New Jersey Nets | 4 | 49-33 | 49 |
2002-03 | Sacramento Kings | 3 | 59-23 | 59 |
2002-03 | Seattle SuperSonics | 4 | 40-42 | 40 |
2003-04 | Los Angeles Lakers | 5 | 56-26 | 56 |
2003-04 | New Orleans Hornets | 3 | 41-41 | 41 |
2003-04 | Seattle SuperSonics | 3 | 37-45 | 37 |
2004-05 | Dallas Mavericks | 4 | 58-24 | 58 |
2004-05 | Indiana Pacers | 4 | 44-38 | 44 |
2004-05 | Miami Heat | 4 | 59-23 | 59 |
2004-05 | Phoenix Suns | 4 | 62-20 | 62 |
2004-05 | Toronto Raptors | 3 | 33-49 | 33 |
2004-05 | Utah Jazz | 4 | 26-56 | 26 |
2005-06 | Detroit Pistons | 8 | 64-18 | 64 |
2005-06 | Los Angeles Clippers | 3 | 47-35 | 47 |
2005-06 | Milwaukee Bucks | 3 | 40-42 | 40 |
2005-06 | Washington Wizards | 3 | 42-40 | 42 |
2006-07 | Los Angeles Lakers | 3 | 42-40 | 42 |
2006-07 | NO/OKC Hornets | 4 | 39-43 | 39 |
2006-07 | Philadelphia 76ers | 3 | 35-47 | 35 |
2006-07 | Utah Jazz | 4 | 51-31 | 51 |
2007-08 | Boston Celtics | 8 | 66-16 | 66 |
2007-08 | Detroit Pistons | 3 | 59-23 | 59 |
2007-08 | Houston Rockets | 3 | 55-27 | 55 |
2007-08 | Indiana Pacers | 3 | 36-46 | 36 |
2007-08 | Los Angeles Clippers | 4 | 23-59 | 23 |
2007-08 | New Orleans Hornets | 4 | 56-26 | 56 |
2007-08 | San Antonio Spurs | 3 | 56-26 | 56 |
2008-09 | Atlanta Hawks | 6 | 47-35 | 47 |
2008-09 | Detroit Pistons | 4 | 39-43 | 39 |
2008-09 | Houston Rockets | 3 | 53-29 | 53 |
2008-09 | Los Angeles Lakers | 7 | 65-17 | 65 |
2008-09 | New Orleans Hornets | 3 | 49-33 | 49 |
2008-09 | Toronto Raptors | 3 | 33-49 | 33 |
2009-10 | Boston Celtics | 6 | 50-32 | 50 |
2009-10 | Denver Nuggets | 5 | 53-29 | 53 |
2009-10 | Miami Heat | 3 | 47-35 | 47 |
2009-10 | Orlando Magic | 3 | 59-23 | 59 |
2009-10 | Phoenix Suns | 4 | 54-28 | 54 |
2009-10 | Utah Jazz | 5 | 53-29 | 53 |
2010-11 | Atlanta Hawks | 6 | 44-38 | 44 |
2010-11 | Los Angeles Lakers | 8 | 57-25 | 57 |
2010-11 | New Orleans Hornets | 8 | 46-36 | 46 |
2010-11 | Portland Trailblazers | 3 | 48-34 | 48 |
2011-12 | Atlanta Hawks | 3 | 40-26 | 49.7 |
2011-12 | Indiana Pacers | 3 | 42-24 | 52.2 |
2011-12 | Miami Heat | 5 | 46-20 | 57.2 |
2011-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 5 | 47-19 | 58.4 |
2011-12 | Portland Trailblazers | 3 | 28-38 | 34.8 |
2012-13 | New York Knicks | 6 | 54-28 | 54 |
2012-13 | San Antonio Spurs | 4 | 58-24 | 58 |
2013-14 | Houston Rockets | 3 | 54-28 | 54 |
2013-14 | Indiana Pacers | 9 | 56-26 | 56 |
2013-14 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 3 | 40-42 | 40 |
2013-14 | Philadelphia 76ers | 3 | 19-63 | 19 |
2014-15 | Golden State Warriors | 5 | 67-15 | 67 |
2014-15 | Houston Rockets | 6 | 56-26 | 56 |
2014-15 | Memphis Grizzlies | 6 | 55-27 | 55 |
2014-15 | Miami Heat | 3 | 37-45 | 37 |
There have been 446 teams over those seasons (the NBA expanded to 30 in 2004-05). The first thing to note is how many such teams there have been. If all teams were equal and there was nothing else to go on, we’d expect 56 3-0 teams. 67 is more than that, but not all that much. That’s about the number you’d expect if the range of the majority of winning percentages from the best to worst teams were about 42%-58%. In other words, if 90% of teams ended up with 34-48 wins. So that’s odd. Chalk one up for it meaning something to have a hot start, but not as much as might be expected.
On the other hand, 59.7% of these teams went on to win a fourth straight game. 34.3% won a fifth, 23.9% won a sixth, and 13.4% won a seventh. After that, the number of teams in this sample size is small enough to make it pretty useless for gathering conclusions. Teams went on to win almost exactly 49 games on average (prorating the lockout shortened 2011-12 season). All of those numbers are nearly perfectly consistent with .600 teams being the typical variety to start 3-0. That’s encouraging.
It shouldn’t be shocking if the Pistons end up with a win total in the 30s. 15% of 3-0 teams do (with another 5% even lower). A team with underwhelming expectations out the gate that won relatively close games would be the variety you’d expect to achieve that outcome. On the other hand, the Pistons haven’t beat up on what shapes up (again, based on minimal information) to be the dregs of the league. Their three victims (Atlanta, Utah, and Chicago) are a combined 8-0 otherwise.
If I had to revise my 37-45 prediction today, it would probably be to about 41-41. That maybe overreacting, but hopefully it turns out to be way too conservative. We’ll have to see what happens in the upcoming matches with Indiana and Phoenix. Teams that started 4-0 won 52 games on average and teams that started 5-0 bumped that all the way to 56 wins. After that, any remaining returns for lengthening the opening win streak drop to nearly zero, at least based on historical precedent.