On Friday the Detroit Pistons attempt to avenge an ugly 109-88 loss suffered to the Milwaukee Bucks two weeks ago. We caught with our friends at Behind The Buck Pass to discuss the matchup.
Earlier this week I spoke with Adam McGee of Behind The Buck Pass to discuss Friday’s game between the Detroit Pistons and the Milwaukee Bucks. We did a Q&A for his website in which he asked me some questions to gain perspective from a Pistons point of view. You can read our conversation here, but I’m going to focus on a few key points from our discussion for you guys.
Adam:
The Pistons are leading the league in offensive rebounds and even aside from Drummond, the rest of the roster are chipping in to help out. Is there anything you feel the Bucks could do to combat this, or are they just best focusing on exploiting some of Detroit’s weaknesses elsewhere?
I responded:
"Defensive rebounding is going to be a serious problem for the Bucks in this one. The Bucks are last in the NBA in defensive rebounding, while the Pistons are second in offensive rebounding. I haven’t watched much of the Bucks this year, but they’re also second-last in pace this year, which means that the rebounding can’t be attributed to the offense trying to get out and run on misses.It’s going to be important for the Bucks to keep the Pistons off the boards, and I think Greg Monroe is going to have to step up in this one for the Bucks to have a chance.That said, the Pistons don’t tend to get up for teams that they think they should beat. Whether it be a mental hurdle they need to get over or whatever it is, they’ve lost to bad teams in bad fashion, and I don’t think the Bucks are nearly as bad as they have looked so far. If the Bucks are responsible with the ball, they keep Drummond off the boards and they can frustrate Reggie Jackson, this one is up for the taking."
As I told Adam, the Pistons are going to have a significant rebounding edge in this game, at least assuming nothing extraordinary happens. The Bucks are the worst defensive rebounding team in the NBA, with a defensive rebounding percentage of 70.3 percent, almost three percent worse than the 29th place Houston Rockets who are just pulling down 73.2 percent of defensive rebounding opportunities. The Pistons offensive rebounding percentage is second in the NBA with 29 percent, and they should control the glass all game long.
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Andre Drummond was held to 15 points and 15 rebounds (consider the implications of being “held” to numbers like that, by the way) in the Pistons previous meeting with the Bucks, but he only played 24 minutes and suffered an injury in the second quarter that seemed to take the wind out of his sails. The Pistons followed suit as the Bucks crushed them with a 30-14 third quarter.
When you get all the rebounds, as the Pistons are essentially expected to do against a mediocre rebounding team like the Bucks, you control everything. Possessions are played as you dictate, and your margin for error becomes expansive. The way the Pistons shoot this season, that’s highly beneficial.
In summary of our discussion, Adam asked me for my prediction for how the game will play out.
My response:
"I think that this is going to be a fairly low scoring game due to the pace these teams play at, and the fairly uninspired offenses they both feature from a statistical standpoint. The Pistons flop games have almost exclusively been on the road, but they’ve been very good at home, and they’ve taken care of business against everybody they should beat and a few they shouldn’t so far at the Palace.I think the Pistons win, something along the lines of 98-84, and I think Andre Drummond has a monster game against his former frontcourt mate. Lets say 22 points, 18 rebounds."
It’s worth noting that the Bucks have had a terrible defense this season. Instead of the sturdy defense the Bucks were expected to feature this season, they have the third-worst defensive rating in the NBA, surrendering 106.7 points per 100 possessions. That’s ahead of only the New Orleans Pelicans at 108.7 and the lowly Los Angeles Lakers at 106.8.
On the other side of the coin, the Pistons’ offense has been pretty good at home. Their offensive rating at the Palace of Auburn Hills is 102.6, and their rebound percentage is 53.7 in friendly confines, up from 50.6 percent on the road. The Pistons are just better at home, and while that’s not great for the road schedule, it’s just fine for this game on Friday against the Milwaukee Bucks, whom they match up quite well against.
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Adam is the editor of Behind The Buck Pass, and he’s a National Lead NBA Contributor for Hoops Habit. Follow him @AdamMcGee11 and keep up to date on a regional and divisional rival, and the NBA at large through his Hoops Habit writing.