Projecting the Atlanta Hawks’ final record
By Duncan Smith
As the Detroit Pistons begin their push for playoff positioning, it’s time to take a look at the Atlanta Hawks to examine how they stack up in the playoff race.
In our continuing series breaking down the Detroit Pistons’ playoff chances and their biggest challengers to the final few playoff spots, it’s time to take a look at the Atlanta Hawks to outline what remains for them on the schedule in an effort to break down where they will finish.
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The Hawks are currently fifth in the Eastern Conference with a 35-28 record, 7.5 games behind the first place Cleveland Cavaliers and three games ahead of the Pistons who sit alone in ninth with a record of 32-31.
Atlanta Hawks’ remaining schedule:
Tuesday, March 8th: @ Utah Jazz (29-33)
Thursday, March 10th: @ Toronto Raptors (42-20)
Saturday, March 12th: Memphis Grizzlies (38-25)
Sunday, March 13th: Indiana Pacers (34-30)
Wednesday, March 16th: @ Detroit Pistons (32-31)
Thursday, March 17th: Denver Nuggets (25-38)
Saturday, March 19th: Houston Rockets (31-32)
Monday, March 21st: Washington Wizards (30-32)
Wednesday, March 23rd: @ Washington Wizards (30-32)
Friday, March 25th: Milwaukee Bucks (26-38)
Saturday, March 26th: @ Detroit Pistons (32-31)
Monday, March 28th: @ Chicago Bulls (32-30)
Friday, April 1st: Cleveland Cavaliers (44-18)
Tuesday, April 5th: Phoenix Suns (17-46)
Thursday, April 7th: Toronto Raptors (42-20)
Saturday, April 9th: Boston Celtics (38-26)
Monday, April 11th: @ Cleveland Cavaliers (44-18)
Wednesday, April 13th: @ Washington Wizards (30-32)
Hawks’ winning percentage: (35-28) .556
Remaining teams combined win percentage: (460-419) .523
Games the Hawks have a strong chance of winning: Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns
50/50 games: Utah Jazz, Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards, Chicago Bulls, Boston Celtics
Games the Hawks will probably lose: Toronto Raptors, Memphis Grizzlies, Cleveland Cavaliers
Analysis: The Hawks have a very home-heavy schedule, with only eight remaining road games, but every one of those road games could be losses. The Jazz are strong at home, boasting a 19-12 record in Salt Lake City. The Raptors are one of the best teams in the NBA, the Pistons have handled the Hawks well this season and will play their last two games against each other at the Palace of Auburn Hills, the Bulls are tough, and the Hawks will wrap up their regular season against the Cavs and the likely desperate Washington Wizards.
The Hawks have a 16-16 record away from home, and may find that their tough road games may be their undoing.
The only gimme the Hawks have the rest of the way is against the Phoenix Suns, with games against the Nuggets and Bucks being likely wins as well.
Hawks projected final record: 46-36
I utilized FiveThirtyEight’s NBA predictions to forecast the Hawks’ record. Their Elo algorithm is multi-faceted and utilizes elements ranging from strength of schedule, point differential, fatigue, altitude and travel. In addition to predicting the Hawks’ final record, it projects the Hawks as 97 percent to make the playoffs, although they have just a 1 percent chance of winning the NBA title.