Analyzing the Detroit Pistons’ playoff prospects
By Duncan Smith
The Detroit Pistons’ have overachieved this season to find themselves in playoff contention, and the campaign is quickly entering crunch time.
The Detroit Pistons have already matched the expectations of some fans and observers, already being the winners of 37 games this season. While it’s not assured that the Pistons will finish the season with a winning record, their current 37-33 mark gives some confidence that the squad should finish at or above the .500 mark. Considering that the Pistons haven’t really set themselves apart from the pack in any statistical category, it seems like the season could already be considered a success according to preseason predictions.
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It might seem like that, but this will be a disappointing season if the Pistons miss the playoffs. With highlights like the 5-1 start and various streaks and hot runs throughout the season, there’s only one thing that Piston fans should accept as a result to this season, and that is a playoff berth. The Pistons are a team that can spend long stretches mired in mediocrity and inconsistency, but they are also a team that can beat the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat twice, the Golden State Warriors and the Atlanta Hawks when they play well. At a certain point, the preseason expectations go out the window and the only thing that matters is getting into the postseason.
The Pistons are currently in ninth with a 37-34 record, and their closest competitors for the seventh and eighth seeds in the Eastern Conference are the Indiana Pacers at 37-33, the Chicago Bulls at 36-33 and Washington Wizards at 35-35. According to FiveThirtyEight’s most recent NBA predictions, the Pistons are projected to finish the season 42-40 and have a 38 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In comparison, the Pacers are projected to finish 47-35, and they have an 89 percent chance of making the postseason. The Wizards fare similarly to the Pistons, projected to finish 42-40 with a 40 percent chance to make the playoffs, thanks in large part to the Wizards holding the tiebreaker advantage over the Pistons. Finally, the Bulls are in the direst of straits, projected to finish 42-40 but only with a 34 percent chance of making the playoffs, and that’s thanks to the Pistons currently holding the tiebreaker over them.
The biggest disadvantage for the Pistons going forward against the Bulls and Wizards (we’ll assume the Pacers take the seventh seed, and the remaining three teams will battle for eighth) will be the difficulty of their schedule. The Pistons only play one team with a losing record for the rest of the regular season, and that’s going to be the 29-41 Orlando Magic on Wednesday night at the Palace of Auburn Hills and then in Orlando on April 6th.
The rest of their schedule is something of a murderer’s row of teams. They play six home games and four road games. The home games include dates against the Charlotte Hornets, Atlanta Hawks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks, Washington Wizards and Miami Heat. The road dates are against the Chicago Bulls, the Heat and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
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It’s true that the Pistons are the masters of their own destiny, as if they win out (we’re not projecting this, mind you) they get in, but they have the hardest road of all in front of them. The playoffs have essentially begun for the Pistons, and they’re going to need to play every game for the rest of the season like a decisive seventh game.