How will Ellenson impact Detroit Pistons in rookie year?

Rookie/long-term impact

This is really all that matters. Can he impact the team now? What can he contribute long-term?

Development is tricky. Players all grow at their own pace. In football, they always say you know what you have in year three. Most of the time that applies to basketball too, so I can’t say definitively who Ellenson will be as a player long-term but I can make an educated guess.

Let’s start with his rookie impact first.

Ellenson may start out in the eight man rotation, but that greatly depends on how much the Pistons get in free agency at the position. If the Pistons land Al Horford, for example, does Ellenson get minutes? Probably, but not enough to blow anyone’s mind statistically, and the minutes would be sporadic at best.

On the other hand, what if the Pistons use their money in free agency to sure up the backup point guard position? That would leave little to upgrade power forward.

Right now I don’t see how the Pistons could sway Horford from the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks can offer more money. Sure I could make the case for the Pistons being better with Horford than the Hawks, but I haven’t heard that he dislikes playing for the Hawks either and that’s a big factor. (Then again he does have ties to Michigan having grown up there).

Most likely scenario–at this point–is that the Pistons use Ellenson as their primary backup at power forward.

In that role, it’s easy to see him averaging 8-10 points per game and grabbing five to six rebounds.

Long-term, Ellenson is the perfect compliment to Andre Drummond. I think he could be an all-star caliber player somewhere down the road. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Ellenson replicate his college stats–17 points and 10 rebounds–or more somewhere down the line.